682
FXUS62 KMLB 101037
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
637 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

- High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through
  tonight, perhaps lingering into early next week

- Elevated rain chances through today, returning closer to normal
  by the early to the middle part of the upcoming week

- Hotter conditions resume, especially by mid week, with heat
  index values approaching 102 to 107 degrees

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Current-Tonight...The weak pressure gradient remains in place with
light SSE winds early this morning. Warm and humid conditions
continue with widely scattered showers and isolated lightning storms
across the local coastal waters. This coverage may be increasing
from the southern waters northward ahead of daybreak this morning
as shown by trends on radar imagery. Steering flow remains out of
the SSE/S, which will take some of this activity across the
Treasure Coast and potentially the Brevard coast early in the
period. To go along with unseasonably deep moisture (PWATs > 2"),
a disturbance aloft across the south-central FL peninsula will
slowly push across the coverage warning area during the day and
exit westward this evening. Main convective impacts early this
morning will be locally heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and
occasional lightning strikes.

A continued onshore (SE/SSE) wind component will allow for a diffuse
sea breeze boundary to push well inland, again, later today.
Steering flow will remain out of the SSE at 5-10 mph. Some locations
locally could realize 2-4 inch rainfall amounts due to the slow-
moving nature, as well as for any multiple rounds received.
Additional heavy rainfall could also exacerbate flooding potential
for areas that have recently seen multiple heavy downpours in recent
days. Additional convective impacts this afternoon and early evening
will be frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds locally 40-45 mph.

Max temps today in the U80s to around 90F at the coast and near 90F
with a few L90s into the interior. Peak heat indices will still run
99-105F, though clouds/rainfall will continue to keep these values
tempered. Conditions humid, again, tonight with lows in the 70s.

Mon-Tue...The pgrad remains generally weak and light onshore
(ESE/SE) flow will continue thru the period. PWATs (1.80-2.00")
will be a little lower than recent days. Aloft, high pressure
ridging over the western Atlc will nose into central FL on Mon
with rising mid-level heights and temps here remaining near -5C
to -6C. It appears there will be less forcing with the high
pushing into the area and we keep PoPs a little lower than recent
days, 50-60pct each day. The ECSB will still develop and push
inland each day with light SERLY steering flow. There will still
be a small threat overnight/early morning for occasional showers
and isolated storms to scrape the coast.

The primary concern remains the threat for locally heavy rainfall of
1-3 inches each day from slow-moving or repeated rounds of heavier
showers and storms. This will cause mostly minor flooding issues,
but may lead to isolated instances of more substantial flooding of
roadways and poor drainage areas across any locations that see heavy
rainfall over repeated days. Still cannot rule out a couple strong
storms with threats of frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Max temps begin to creep upward with L90s and a few M90s within
reach across the interior on Mon and perhaps a degree warmer into
Tue. Peak afternoon heat indices still forecast 98-105F each
afternoon ahead of developing showers/storms. Overnight lows
consistent and generally in the 70s.

Wed-Sat...The general weak pressure pattern continues across the
region with light, mostly onshore flow, which could veer offshore
each overnight and early morning. Fairly deep moisture continues
with PWATs 1.80-2.00 inches, possibly increasing again well in
excess of 2 inches areawide by Fri/Sat. Aloft, mid-level ridging
centers across the peninsula on Wed, further retrograding into
the ERN Gulf Wed night/Thu, then focusing towards the N/NW Gulf
late in the period.

Mid-level temps a bit warmer at -4.5C to -5.5C on average into late
week. Generally keep 40-50pct on Wed, then 50-60pct Thu-Sat, but
there could be some argument for slightly lower PoPs these days.

Max temps forecast continue in the L-M90s each day, with peak heat
indices generally 102-107F, though could have some isolated higher
values which we will have to monitor. Still warm/humid at night with
lows in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Thru Thu...A small, but persistent (ENE/NE) long period swell
continues today and into next week. A weak frontal boundary will
continue to lie quasi-stationary across north-central FL through
at least today. Winds are forecast to be out of the SSE/SE today
10-15 kts and a bit more ESE/SE into Mon-Wed. Seas forecast to
remain around 2-3 ft through much of the period, but may build to
4 ft well offshore into Mon. Winds and seas locally higher invof
stronger showers and lightning storms. Above normal coverage of
showers and storms for one more day, then rain chances begin to
trend closer to normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 610 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Scattered showers are ongoing across the Atlantic early this
morning. Have maintained VCSH along coastal sites through the
morning hours to account for any of these showers to brush along
the coast. High coverage of showers and storms is once again
forecast this afternoon and evening with VCTS after 15Z along the
coast and after 17Z across the interior. Have added TEMPOs for
MCO-SFB-ISM-LEE for MVFR conditions with TSRA as well as wind
gusts up to 25 KT starting at 22Z. Confidence in timing is still
too low to include TEMPOs along the coast at this time. Will
monitor and amend as necessary. Light and variable winds
will become southeast and increase to 8-12 KT by mid- morning
before becoming light once again overnight. Shower and storm
activity will diminish over the interior around 04Z, becoming
mostly dry overnight with scattered showers remaining possible
along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  76  90  77 /  70  40  50  20
MCO  91  75  92  76 /  80  40  60  20
MLB  90  77  91  78 /  70  30  50  20
VRB  90  75  92  76 /  60  30  40  20
LEE  90  76  92  77 /  80  50  50  20
SFB  91  76  92  77 /  70  40  60  20
ORL  91  76  93  77 /  70  40  60  20
FPR  90  74  92  75 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson