764
FXUS62 KMLB 281129
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
629 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Breezy, cool, and dry conditions are forecast across east
  central Florida today as an area of high pressure strengthens
  across the southeastern US.

- At our beaches, a strong southward-flowing longshore current and
  a moderate risk of rip currents will be present. Hazardous
  boating conditions also persist through today.

- Turning warmer this weekend. Low to medium rain chances
  anticipated early next week as moisture increases and a front
  approaches the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

This Morning...A chilly start to the morning across east central
Florida, with morning lows generally in the 40s areawide. Breezy
conditions early this morning will also cause wind chill values to
fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s. If heading out for some early
morning shopping, jackets are encouraged!

Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure will build across the
southeastern US today, slowly drifting eastward. With the cold
front remaining situated south of the Florida peninsula near Cuba,
a tightening pressure gradient is anticipated across Florida
today, which will lead to breezy conditions locally. Northerly
winds of 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph will be
possible, with the strongest winds focused along the coast and
barrier islands. Aside from the breezy conditions, the weather is
anticipated to remain relatively benign for today. Drier air
filtering in from the north will keep conditions dry across east
central Florida and will also keep skies mostly clear today into
the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain below normal, with
highs in the 60s and lows tonight falling into the mid 40s to
upper 50s.

The strong northerly winds will cause a longshore current to
develop within the surf zone, which poses a risk to those entering
the ocean. A longshore current can pull swimmers into deeper
water and potentially rip currents. In addition to the longshore
current, there is also a moderate risk of rip currents. If heading
to the local east central Florida beaches, be sure to always swim
near a lifeguard and heed the guidance of local beach safety
officials.

Saturday-Sunday...The surface high continues drifting
northeastward across the southeastern US into Saturday, moving
offshore into the overnight hours as an area of low pressure moves
eastward across the central US. Locally, dry conditions are
anticipated to persist areawide through Saturday. Winds veer to
out of the east, remaining around 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25
mph possible, especially along the coast. Temperatures begin to
warm slightly on Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the low
to mid 70s and overnight lows generally falling into the mid 50s
to mid 60s areawide.

By Sunday, the local pattern is forecast to begin a gradual
transition. As the surface high shifts offshore late Saturday into
early Sunday, an area of low pressure located across the central
US will shift northeastward from the Midwest towards the Great
Lakes, with its attendant cold front slowly moving across the
southern US. Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along the cold front near the Gulf and Texas, lifting a stalled
boundary northward across the Florida peninsula. Locally, onshore
flow is forecast to persist, resulting in a slow advection of
moisture towards east central Florida. This may lead to some
isolated shower development across the area, though confidence is
low at this time. Conditions also noticeably warm into Sunday,
with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s and lows remain in
the 60s.

Monday-Thursday...The cold front will slowly advance eastward
towards the Florida peninsula early next week, with another low
developing along the front on Tuesday and giving it the momentum
needed to move towards the Florida peninsula. Isolated to
scattered showers will be possible on Monday, with coverage
increasing on Tuesday (30-55%) as the front moves southward across
the area. There is low confidence in storm development at this
time, so kept only a mention of showers across the peninsula and
left isolated storms across the local Atlantic waters. Ahead of
the front, temperatures are forecast to continue warming, with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures remain
steady in the 60s on Monday, cooling into the 50s on Tuesday
behind the front. Towards the middle of next week, the cold front
is forecast to move south of the area, with high pressure building
across the area and drier air filtering in from the north behind
the front. Mostly dry conditions are forecast from Wednesday into
Thursday, with afternoon temperatures generally in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local
Atlantic waters due to a tight pressure gradient caused by a
strong area of high pressure situated across the southeastern US.
Northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots are
forecast today along with seas of 5 to 9 feet. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect across all portions of the local
Atlantic waters through this evening. Winds slowly subside this
evening as the pressure gradient loosens slightly, resulting in
seas also gradually subsiding. Winds become more onshore into
Saturday as the high shifts directly north of the area, with seas
remaining between 5 to 8 feet. The Small Craft Advisory continues
across the Gulf Stream waters into Saturday.

Winds and seas subside below cautionary criteria late this
weekend, with seas generally of 3 to 5 feet and winds 10 to 15
knots through Monday. The pattern begins to shift early next week
with the approach of another cold front on Tuesday, with rain and
storm chances gradually increasing Sunday through Tuesday across
the local waters. The front is forecast to move across the local
waters on Tuesday, with drier air settling across the area towards
the middle of next week. Winds increase to 15 to 20 knots on
Tuesday but subside once again into Wednesday. Seas are forecast
to remain between 3 to 5 feet through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 629 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR and dry conditions continue through the TAF period. Breezy
north winds are forecast with gusts increasing to 20-23 kts
through late morning and into the afternoon. Winds subside to 8-10
kts after sunset, gradually shifting out of the northeast
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast
across portions of the interior today, especially across Lake and
far western portions of Orange and Osceola counties. Dry air has
settled across east central Florida, which will cause minimum RH
values to fall below 35% across these areas. Additionally, a tight
pressure gradient across the local area will cause northerly
winds to reach 15 mph and greater at times. The only criteria not
being met for a Red Flag Warning is the Significant Fire
Potential forecast, which continues to remain at a low risk for
today. Sensitive fire weather conditions across the interior as a
whole will be possible with minimum RH values of 35-45%, with
lower concern along the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  52  71  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  52  73  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  67  57  73  64 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  69  58  74  64 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  61  46  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  50  73  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  51  72  60 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  58  75  64 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Law