Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
321
FGUS73 KMKX 131644
ESFMKX
WIC077-047-039-117-111-021-027-131-089-049-025-055-133-079-065-045-
105-127-101-059-302100-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1143 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
...Spring flood outlook for southern Wisconsin...
The risk of flooding this spring is below average for southern
Wisconsin.
Factors that play into this risk are the lack of a snow pack,
average to below average soil moisture, average streamflow. In some
areas the ground is still frozen which can result in increased
runoff and flooding potential. The spring flood risk pertains to the
3 month time period from mid March to mid June, while the risk for
individual weather events could be greater.
Precipitation since December 1 is 50-75% across southern Wisconsin,
which is 1.5 to 3.5 inches below normal. The U.S. Drought Monitor
indicates Moderate drought conditions in southeast Wisconsin. Soil
moisture from the CPC Calculated Soil Moisture product is in the 20-
30th percentile in southeast Wisconsin. This means there is some
room in the soil to absorb additional moisture. Streamflow is in the
10-24th percentile in parts of southeast Wisconsin, in the 76-90th
percentile in the lower Wisconsin River and the 25-75th percentile
across the rest of southern Wisconsin. This means there is some room
in the rivers to contain additional rainfall and snowmelt.
Snowfall this winter is around 20 inches below average. There is no
snow across southern Wisconsin, which plays a large role in the
spring flood risk. There is about 1 inch of snow water equivalent in
the headwaters of the Wisconsin River, which half of normal, leading
to less runoff into the Wisconsin river due to melting snow. Frost
depth is 0 to 32 inches. Some areas are completely thawed and can
absorb rainfall, helping to mitigate flooding. Some areas remain
deeper than average however the top few inches is thawed.
...Weather Outlook...
The outlook for two weeks from now, March 20-26, there are enhanced
odds for above average temperature and above average precipitation.
The outlook for the March, April, May season shows equal chances for
above, near and below average temperature and slightly enhanced odds
for above average precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx/SpringFloodOutlook for spring
flood outlook information.
This is the final spring flood outlook.
...Probabilistic Forecast Information for River Forecast Points...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Rock River
Watertown 5.5 6.0 6.5 : <5 16 <5 11 <5 7
:Crawfish River
Milford 7.0 9.0 10.0 : 19 39 5 11 <5 7
:Rock River
Jefferson 10.0 11.0 13.0 : 18 39 11 28 <5 7
Fort Atkinson 16.0 17.0 18.0 : 10 20 <5 9 <5 5
Lake Koshkonong 10.0 11.0 11.5 : 22 45 14 33 11 26
Afton 9.0 11.1 12.2 : 23 44 8 18 <5 10
:Turtle Creek
Clinton 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 7 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pecatonica River
Darlington 13.5 15.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville 11.0 14.0 16.0 : 9 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Pecatonica River
Martintown 13.5 18.0 21.0 : 11 23 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sugar River
Albany 12.0 13.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Brodhead 5.0 8.0 10.0 : 19 31 5 9 <5 <5
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells 16.0 17.6 18.9 : <5 25 <5 13 <5 6
Portage 17.0 18.0 19.0 : 27 70 12 51 <5 24
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 34 38 24 22 10 12
Rock Springs 18.5 21.0 23.0 : 28 38 20 23 10 14
West Baraboo 9.0 10.5 12.5 : 11 16 8 8 <5 <5
Baraboo 16.0 22.0 23.1 : 36 42 7 8 5 <5
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth 5.5 7.0 8.0 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:Fox River
Princeton 9.5 11.0 12.0 : 11 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
Berlin 13.0 14.5 16.0 : 15 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 13 28 8 10 <5 8
:Root River
Franklin 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 18 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Root River Canal
Raymond 9.0 11.0 12.0 : 20 24 5 7 <5 <5
:Root River
Racine 7.0 7.5 8.0 : 6 9 <5 5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg 10.0 11.0 12.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 14 36 5 10 <5 6
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha 6.0 8.0 10.0 : 8 16 <5 9 <5 <5
New Munster 11.0 13.0 14.0 : 23 50 10 22 <5 14
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Rock River
Watertown 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.5
:Crawfish River
Milford 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.6 6.3 8.3 9.3
:Rock River
Jefferson 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 9.0 11.1 12.3
Fort Atkinson 12.6 12.6 12.7 13.1 14.3 15.9 16.5
Lake Koshkonong 7.3 7.3 7.6 8.1 9.9 11.5 12.5
Afton 6.0 6.1 6.4 7.2 8.8 11.0 11.8
:Turtle Creek
Clinton 4.0 4.1 4.7 5.0 5.5 7.2 8.2
:Pecatonica River
Darlington 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.9 7.8 10.2 11.7
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville 5.8 6.1 6.9 8.0 10.0 10.9 12.1
:Pecatonica River
Martintown 7.4 7.5 8.0 8.7 10.9 13.6 14.2
:Sugar River
Albany 4.9 5.0 6.0 6.5 7.8 10.0 11.0
Brodhead 2.0 2.0 2.6 3.3 4.5 6.4 8.1
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells 7.6 7.6 8.1 10.2 12.2 13.7 15.1
Portage 13.1 13.1 13.4 15.8 17.1 18.1 18.5
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg 7.4 8.3 10.5 12.3 15.0 17.9 19.6
Rock Springs 11.4 12.4 13.9 16.6 19.5 22.8 24.9
West Baraboo 3.5 3.9 4.9 5.8 6.7 9.3 12.0
Baraboo 9.7 10.7 13.1 15.4 17.2 20.2 23.2
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.9 7.0
:Fox River
Princeton 6.6 6.7 7.0 7.8 8.3 9.6 10.5
Berlin 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.6 12.2 13.5 14.3
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan 3.3 3.5 4.3 5.3 6.7 8.3 11.7
:Root River
Franklin 3.5 4.4 5.7 6.5 7.5 8.3 8.7
:Root River Canal
Raymond 4.0 5.0 6.3 7.3 8.8 10.3 11.1
:Root River
Racine 3.5 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.4 6.5 7.1
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg 6.2 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.4 8.9 9.8
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg 7.0 7.2 8.1 8.9 10.0 11.6 13.1
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.8 7.0
New Munster 6.9 7.2 8.5 10.2 10.8 12.9 13.9
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Rock River
Watertown 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
:Crawfish River
Milford 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Rock River
Jefferson 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
Fort Atkinson 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4
Afton 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5
:Turtle Creek
Clinton 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Pecatonica River
Darlington 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
:East Branch Pecatonica River
Blanchardville 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Pecatonica River
Martintown 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
:Sugar River
Albany 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Brodhead 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
:Wisconsin River
Wisconsin Dells 4.8 4.3 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.4
Portage 3.3 2.9 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3
:Baraboo River
Reedsburg 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Rock Springs 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
West Baraboo 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Baraboo 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
:Black Earth Creek
Black Earth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Fox River
Princeton 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
Berlin 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7
:Sheboygan River
Sheboygan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Root River
Franklin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Root River Canal
Raymond 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Root River
Racine 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Cedar Creek
Cedarburg 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Milwaukee River
Cedarburg 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
:Fox River Lower
Waukesha 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Munster 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/mkx for more weather and water
information.
$$