025
FXUS63 KMKX 170811
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
311 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers/sprinkles over central Wisconsin this morning.

- High temperatures will be well above normal today with highs
  in the mid to upper 70s, with breezy winds.

- Showers with a few thunderstorms are expected along a slow-
  moving cold front late tonight through Saturday.

- Windy and colder for Sunday with lingering shower chances
  (<60%).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Today through Saturday Night:

Light showers and sprinkles will continue across mainly central
Wisconsin early this morning, within an area of low level warm
advection associated with a low level jet over the region. This
activity will shift northeastward with time, with rain chances
ending by or shortly after sunrise.

A warm and windy day is on tap for the region, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s, with a few spots potentially hitting 80 over
southwestern Wisconsin. Southwest winds will gust between 15 and
25 MPH.

A slow moving cold front will advance eastward today over
Minnesota and Iowa, reaching the western portions of the
forecast area late this evening. A broken line of showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms will move into areas west of Madison
late this evening, and then slowly progress eastward through the
overnight hours. Activity looks to be scattered and not
particularly heavy, but most places should see at least some rain.


By Saturday morning the front will be across the southeastern
portion of the forecast area, and will push a bit more to the
south before stalling. Showers will remain possible Saturday,
especially over the southeastern half of the area, with drier
conditions favored to the west. Another, stronger front will
approach from the west Saturday night, bringing renewed chances
for showers.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Sunday through Thursday:

The ECMWF Ens and GEFS have fairly good agreement with a deep
upper trough over WI and IL at 12Z Sun with cyclogenesis underway
over ern Lower MI. The low will track newd to near the Ontario
and Quebec border by evening, while the upper wave induces
another round of cyclogenesis over the Mid Atlantic States. S WI
will be within or near the wrn edge of rainfall Sun AM followed by
drying and continued cold advection on brisk nwly winds for the
afternoon. High temps Sun will mostly stay in the 50s.

A brief and quick moving sfc ridge will move across S WI Sun nt
followed by sly winds and warm advection ahead of a fairly strong
upper trough that will track from the Canadian Prairies to the nrn
Great Lakes. A sfc low will accompany the upper trough and take
much of Tue crossing the nrn Great Lakes. Showers will be possible
(30-50%) Mon nt with the cold frontal passage, but may continue
into Tue via low level instability. Nwly winds and cool high temps
in the lower to middle 50s are forecast.

Nwly flow aloft will then prevail through Thu with differing
strengths and timing of shortwave troughs from the GEFS and ECMWF
Ens. 20-30% chances of showers are forecast with high temps
staying in the 50s.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected during the day today and into the
early evening hours. Some LLWS is likely this morning, giving
way to gusty south to southwest during the day today. Gusts will
be to around 20 knots, occasionally to 25 knots. A broken line
of showers and thunderstorms will then slowly move into the
region tonight. Lower visibility and ceilings will be possible
with this activity.

Boxell

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southerly winds will increase today as high pressure of 30.1
inches moves across the eastern US, and low pressure of 29.3
inches deepens over Alberta. Winds over most of the lake will be
be between 20 and 30 knots, but occasional gusts to gale force
will be possible for a short time this afternoon over the northern
third of the open waters. These gales will be marginal in
nature and confined to a small area of the lake for a short
period of time, so no gale warning is planned at this time.

In the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
Saturday morning for gusty winds and building waves. The highest
waves will be north of Port Washington.

A weak cold front will move across the lake tonight and early
Saturday, with winds turning westerly behind the front. Low
pressure is then expected to rapidly develop over northern Indiana
late Saturday night, and lift through Lower Michigan Sunday
morning, reaching the vicinity of Lake Huron by mid day, at 29.1
inches. This will drag a much stronger cold front across the lake,
with gales looking increasingly likely Sunday morning through
Sunday afternoon. Additional gales are possible on Tuesday as
another low moves through the region.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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