Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
369 FXUS63 KMKX 081536 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 936 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures today, with temperatures then within a few degrees of normal the rest of the week into the weekend - Chance (30-50%) for a dusting of snow Thursday night into Friday, with a better chance (50-70%) for some light accumulations Sunday into Sunday night && .UPDATE... Issued 936 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Some middle to high clouds have moved through the area, so bumped up sky cover into this afternoon, with more upstream clouds expected. There is an area of lower clouds to the north that may move through northeastern and eastern parts of the area into this afternoon. Highs should reach the lower to middle 20s this afternoon. Winds become light tonight, with skies gradually scattering out. It may be possible for some low clouds to linger in northeast or eastern parts of the area. Winds shift to the south southwest and increase on Thursday, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface trough. Warm air advection during this time may keep temperatures nearly steady in the 10 to 15 degree above zero range overnight, with highs into the upper 20s on Thursday. Middle to high clouds gradually increase on Thursday as well. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 232 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 Today through Friday: Warm air advection along with a weak shortwave will result in increasing clouds this morning into the afternoon. Model soundings are pretty dry below 10 kft as the better forcing moves through, though there may be enough deep saturation in the northeast forecast area for some flurries late morning into the afternoon. Though the warm advection aloft will arrive by the afternoon, temps will be colder today behind the shortwave that moved through last evening. Weak upper ridging will slide into the area on Thursday, bringing dry weather through the day. Temps will warm back towards normal under southerly low level flow ahead of the next approaching system. A trough of low pressure will then approach the forecast area Thursday night, moving through on Friday. Models are currently suggesting two areas of precip, one associated with the better low level moisture and forcing, which may clip the southeast forecast area late Thursday night into Friday. The other is with the trough/front passage, which will have a better chance to bring flurries or some light snow to much of the forecast area through the day Friday. This system will be contending with dry air at times, so not expecting more than a trace to a couple tenths of an inch of snow as it rolls through. Still enough confidence though to bump precip chances up a bit, which is also supported by model ensemble probs of measurable precip. DDV && .LONG TERM... Issued 232 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 Saturday through Tuesday: The weather looks quiet under high pressure on Saturday, with partly cloudy skies and temps just a touch below normal behind the departed trough. Confidence is increasing in a round of accumulating snow on Sunday. Models are in pretty good with the timing and strength of a shortwave and associated surface low, which are expected to approach Saturday night and move through Sunday into Sunday night. Plenty of forcing and moisture for some light snow, and GFS and ECMWF ensemble probs show 90-100% chance of measurable precip in a 24 hour period. Bumped up highest forecast 6-hr precip chances to the 50-70% range for now, with further increases likely if future model runs stay consistent with this system. As of now, this looks like a 1-3" long duration snowfall, but still plenty of time for the details to change. Dry weather and colder temperatures are expected to move in early next week behind the departing low pressure system, as high pressure builds in from the northwest. DDV && .AVIATION... Issued 936 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Some middle to high clouds have moved through the area, with more upstream clouds expected into this afternoon. There is an area of lower clouds with ceilings around 2500 feet AGL to the north that may move through Sheboygan and perhaps other terminals in eastern parts of the area into this afternoon. Winds become light tonight, with skies gradually scattering out. It may be possible for some low clouds with ceilings around 2500 feet AGL to linger in northeast or eastern parts of the area. Winds shift to the south southwest and increase on Thursday, becoming gusty by midday into the afternoon. Middle to high clouds gradually increase on Thursday as well. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 232 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 Breezy northwest winds are expected today between high pressure over the southern plains and low pressure over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Winds will become light tonight as the pressure gradient weakens, with southerly winds then increasing on Thursday ahead of an approaching low. Winds and waves currently look like they will stay just below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will remain breezy Thursday night into Saturday, eventually becoming west to northwest later Friday into Friday night as the trough moves through. DDV && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee