597
FXUS63 KMKX 091857
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1257 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers expected (70-90% chance) this evening into early
  tonight, with drizzle lingering overnight

- Another round of showers (60-90% chance) Sunday afternoon,
  with a rumble or two of thunder also possible

- Dry weather Monday and Tuesday along with temperatures near to
  a little above normal

- Rain chances (50-70%) return to the area on Wednesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

A wing of warm air and moisture advection will bring a round of
showers to southern Wisconsin later today into tonight. Showers on
the leading edge of the better forcing to the west continue to
erode due to significant dry air in the lower levels. Deeper
moisture will eventually arrive here by early evening, with
precipitable water values peaking around 1" late evening into
early tonight. Bumped up precip chances during this period, given
latest HREF 1 hr probs of measurable precip upwards of 60% and 6
hr probs 80-100% across southern Wisconsin.

Model soundings suggest persistent saturation in the lowest few
thousand feet for a drizzle potential overnight after the showers
exit the area. Lows tonight will be on the mild side in the mid
to upper 40s given the continued clouds and persistent
southerly low level flow ahead of the approaching trough.

Aside from some lingering drizzle, it looks dry Sunday morning
prior to the arrival of the trough. The potent shortwave will then
move through during the afternoon hours, kicking off another round
of showers. Precip chances are highest across the northern half
of the forecast area, though most places are likely to see
rain. Hourly HREF probs are actually a bit higher for this round
of showers than the round this evening, peaking in at 70-90% in
the north. Models are showing a touch of elevated instability
as the shortwave moves through, with steeper low to mid level
lapse rates as well. Wouldn`t be surprised by a few rumbles of
thunder tomorrow. Temps tomorrow will be warmest in the
southeast (possibly pushing 60), with a bigger window of time to
warm up ahead of the approaching wave and showers. Highs in the
low to mid 50s are expected elsewhere.

Showers will wind down by early evening tomorrow, with dry weather
expected overnight. Clouds will likely gradually decrease in
coverage overnight, but an approaching secondary shortwave and
cold front may keep some lingering cloud cover going through the
night. The clouds and persistent westerly winds overnight will
keep temps above average, with lows in the low to mid 40s
expected.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Monday through Saturday:

The secondary shortwave and associated cold front will drop
through the area on Monday. The better moisture and forcing will
be well to the north towards the center of the low, so kept the
forecast dry on Monday. Should see temps a bit above normal
again, with the colder airmass not arriving until later in the
day and into the night.

Mostly sunny skies and somewhat lighter winds are expected
Tuesday as high pressure moves through the area. The high will
quickly exit to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
trough approaches. The trough will move through on Wednesday,
bringing a return of rain shower chances to southern Wisconsin.
Still a decent spread in timing among deterministic model
solutions, ranging from the trough moving through Wednesday
morning to later Wednesday night.

High pressure will return late week, with dry weather likely
Thursday and Friday. Temps will likely warm to a few degrees
above normal by the end of the week as southerly winds develop
on the back side of the departing high. Looks like rain chances
could return for the weekend, though models aren`t in very good
agreement with the placement and strength of surface low
pressure as a shortwave lifts into the region.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the daytime hours today,
with high level clouds eventually lowering to mid-level by later
this afternoon. Showers are expected to move from the southwest
late afternoon into early evening, with widespread showers
likely by across southern Wisconsin by late evening. Could see
some drizzle linger overnight after the showers wind down.

Ceilings will continue to lower into the evening, eventually
dropping to at least IFR overnight. Latest HREF even shows a
40-60% chance for a period of LIFR ceilings later tonight into
early Sunday. Ceilings will gradually improve on Sunday, but
likely not better than MVFR most places as the main shortwave
moves through during the day. This shortwave is expected to
bring another round of showers tomorrow, with a rumble or two
of thunder possible as well.

Southeast winds generally 15 knots or less will continue into
tonight, becoming southwest by late Sunday morning and then
westerly and picking up a bit by late afternoon as the
shortwave moves through.


DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1257 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to
gradually shift eastward today ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. Breezy south to southeast winds will persist
into tonight between the departing high and approaching low. A
Small Craft Advisory thus continues into early Sunday for the
breezy winds and higher waves.

Rounds of showers are expected tonight into Sunday as the low
moves through, crossing the lake Sunday afternoon. Breezy
westerly winds will then develop behind the trough Sunday
afternoon, eventually becoming northerly by later Monday as a
cold front swings through the area. Another Small Craft Advisory
may be needed Monday, with a few gusts to gale force possible
across northern portions of the lake.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until noon Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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