816
FXUS63 KMKX 110827
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers possible near Lake Michigan today, but
  otherwise dry weather through the weekend

- Shower chances return Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Today through Sunday:

Satellite imagery clearly depicts a low pressure system spinning
over eastern Ontario early this morning. One more weak surface
trough will drop down Lake Superior this morning and cause a
wind shift to the NNE. The favorable fetch down the long axis of
the lake and a lake to 850mb temp diff in the 9 to 12C range
supports lake effect clouds. These should affect our nearshore
and lakeshore areas from late morning through much of the
afternoon. The leading edge of the low clouds that are currently
over the northern part of Lake Michigan are steadily tracking
south-southwest and should reach Sheboygan around 6 AM and
Milwaukee around 9 AM.

There may be a little push of moisture down the lake later in
the day, as forecast RAP and NAM soundings show a slightly
deeper cloud layer (although the HRRR maintains a shallow cloud
layer). A few light rain showers or sprinkles near the lakeshore
north of Milwaukee still look possible, so kept the slight
chance of precip in the fcst, but removed it for Milwaukee and
south due to forecast drier air there.

The lake clouds may thin or scatter out a bit tonight, but
should linger into Sunday morning. This will keep temps warmer
by the lake, but clear skies inland will allow for mid 40s for
lows.

Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast Sunday morning
as low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. Any
lingering low clouds near the lake should diminish as warmer air
moves in, and high clouds should start to increase for inland
areas. Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s inland and
upper 60s near the lake.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

The models have fairly good agreement on strong low pressure
around 985 mb over srn Manitoba Sunday evening tracking to Hudson
Bay by 00Z Tue as it fills to 997 mb. Meanwhile an upper ridge
will extend from ern TX into Lower MI. Thus the trailing cold
front from the Canadian low will weaken as it approaches srn WI,
but the frontal passage will likely still occur on Mon. Only 10-30
percent chances for lgt rain is forecast.

Strong high pressure will then follow in the wake of the strong
low from west to east across far srn Canada, with the high
reaching Lake Superior on Wed, then into much of the Great Lakes
for Thu. Aloft an upper ridge will be building over the Great
Plains then moving into the wrn Great Lakes for Fri. A warm, moist
advection pattern within the building ridge will generate some
showers west of the MS River with drier air mostly inhibiting
rain chances for srn WI. Cannot completely rule out rain though,
with rain chances of 20-30 percent at times. Temps will be near to
slightly above normal for the week.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

An area of low clouds with bases around 2500 ft (MVFR)
developed over northern Lake Michigan overnight. These clouds
are steadily expanding south, and should reach Sheboygan around
6AM/11Z and Milwaukee around 9AM/14Z. These may be thin when
they first arrive, but there is higher confidence in slightly
thicker clouds during the afternoon. Confidence for MVFR
ceilings at KMKE and south are lower than toward Sheboygan due
to slightly drier air in place.

Clouds are expected to thin and become VFR with bases above 3500
tonight as low pressure over eastern Ontario weakens and shifts
east. Look for increasing southeast winds on Sunday.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Low pressure over eastern Ontario will weaken today, but a weak
surface trough extending back from it will slide down Lake
Michigan later this morning and bring a wind shift to the north-
northeast. High pressure will cross the Upper Great Lakes
tonight. Modest southeast winds will then prevail from late
tonight through Sunday night, and become southerly on Monday.
This will occur as strong high pressure prevails over southeast
Canada and low pressure tracks from the northern high plains
into Manitoba.

Nearshore: The persistent northerly winds continue to create
waves up to 4 feet south of Milwaukee, so we extended the Small
Craft Advisory until mid morning for the southern two zones.
Waves have diminished to 3 feet or less north of there, so we
will allow the SC.Y to expire at 09Z/4AM.

Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed from early Sunday
morning through Monday due to persistent southeast winds, a few
gusts up to 25 kt, and waves over 4 feet. Highest waves will be
toward Sheboygan.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee