563
FXUS63 KMKX 060243 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
943 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty south winds continue ahead of cold front, which may
  bring a shower or storm until it moves through into the
  overnight hours.

- Breezy and cooler conditions are expected Sunday. Frost is
  possible away from Lake Michigan later Sunday night into early
  Monday morning.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of next
  week, with dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 943 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The cold front is shifting eastward from north central to
southwest Wisconsin, and will continue to shift eastward into
the overnight hours. Most of the showers and storms are to the
north of the area, where the better upward vertical motion
fields reside with the approaching 500 mb shortwave trough and
low level warm air advection/frontogenesis response. Will
maintain 15 to 30 percent PoPs for a shower or storm, south to
north across the area, into the overnight hours until the front
passes through.

Winds will veer sharply to the west/northwest behind the front,
and will briefly weaken overnight into early Sunday morning.
Cold air advection will bring cooler temperatures in the 50s as
well. Northwest winds will then ramp up and become gusty again
by middle morning into Sunday evening, as the pressure gradient
tightens and cold air advection/downward motion continues.
Temperatures should remain in the lower to middle 60s on Sunday.

Radiational cooling conditions develop later Sunday night into
Monday morning, with clearing skies and weakening winds. This
may allow for frost to develop across areas away from Lake
Michigan. A Frost Advisory may be needed for this period in
later forecasts.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Tonight and Sunday:

Gusty south winds continue ahead of the approaching cold front,
with widespread gusts upwards of 30 mph already reported. Though
the front is rather strong dynamically, instability along and
ahead of the front is relatively weak, characterized by a well-
mixed and relatively dry atmosphere. That said, a few weak high-
based thunderstorms are possible this evening into tonight.

Skies clear out and northwest winds accelerate by sunrise
Sunday, becoming gusty shortly thereafter.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Sunday night through Saturday:

High pressure looks to move slowly through the region Sunday night
into Wednesday, providing dry conditions.

There has been a downward trend in low temperatures for Sunday
night, with lows now in the middle to upper 30s expected over most
of the area, except right along the lakeshore. Winds will become
light overnight Sunday night into Monday morning, so radiational
cooling should set the stage for some frost to develop. Later
shifts may need to consider a Frost Advisory for this period if
this trend continues.

Otherwise, temperatures should slowly warm into the middle of next
week, as the high moves through the region with light winds and
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

South to southwest winds the low levels are generally anticipated
for the rest of the week and into Saturday, which should bring
steady warm air advection and even warmer temperatures. Highs may
approach 80 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the week. Fire
weather conditions may become more of a concern later in the week
as well, with the increasing winds, warming temperatures and dry
conditions continuing.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 943 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The cold front is shifting eastward from north central to
southwest Wisconsin, and will continue to shift eastward into
the overnight hours. Most of the showers and storms are to the
north of the area, and a shower or storm may be possible into
the overnight hours until the front passes through.

Gusty south winds will veer sharply to the west/northwest
behind the front overnight, and will briefly weaken into early
Sunday morning. Low level wind shear conditions are expected
until the front moves through, with south winds around 45 to 50
knots at 2000 feet AGL.

Northwest winds will then ramp up and become gusty again by
middle morning into Sunday evening. Any lingering clouds should
move out of the area by the afternoon. Winds should gradually
weaken Sunday evening and become light later Sunday night.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 943 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Southerly gales will continue into the overnight hours, ahead of
an approaching cold front. A Gale Warning remains in effect
until 4 AM CDT Sunday morning for the open waters of Lake
Michigan, as well as for the nearshore waters north of Port
Washington. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect south of there.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across
the northern and central portions of the lake into the
overnight hours, along and ahead of the front.

Winds will then veer west early Sunday morning behind the front,
with northwest gusts up to 30 knots at times Sunday afternoon and
evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect after the Gale
Warning expires north of Port Washington into Sunday night. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south of there during
this time.

Northwest winds will diminish into Monday and remain light
through much of the week, as high pressure around 30.1 inches
builds into and lingers across the Midwest.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 4
     AM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM Monday.

&&

$$

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