145
FXUS63 KMKX 060823
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
323 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms linger through this afternoon across south-
  central and southeast Wisconsin, with conditions drying out
  tonight.

- High swimming risk expected this afternoon through tonight at Milwaukee,
  Racine, and Kenosha County beaches. Moderate swimming risk
  expected during the same time period at Sheboygan and Ozaukee
  County beaches.

- Gusty winds and elevated wave heights will lead to Small Craft Advisory
  conditions in nearshore zones this afternoon through tonight.

- Drier & more comfortable air settles into southern Wisconsin tonight
  through Monday.

- Humidity & shower/storm chances return Tuesday through late
  week. Tuesday through early Wednesday & Friday through
  Saturday are currently favored for the best shower & storm
  chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Today through Monday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: 3 AM surface observations place a cold
front along an approximate Green Bay - Wautoma - Boscobel axis.
Evident in water vapor imagery, shortwave troughing is apparent
from the Arrowhead of Minnesota south to the Kansas City
vicinity. Areas of showers & occasional rumbles of thunder are
ongoing regionally thanks to lift from the two synoptic
features, though organization has been poor given weak wind
shear and a stable nocturnal boundary layer. Expect areas of
showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue through daybreak
as the aforementioned cold front & upper trough slowly advance
eastward, with brief heavy downpours and isolated cloud to
ground lightning strikes being the main hazards. The slowly
progressing surface front & upper trough will linger across
portions of the area into this afternoon, supporting continued
scattered shower/storm chances across south-central and
southeastern Wisconsin. Currently centered over the Canadian
Prairies, high pressure will settle into the western Great Lakes
tonight through Monday, bringing fair weather conditions and a
drier, more comfortable air mass to southern Wisconsin. Areas of
patchy fog are possible through sunrise, and once more tonight,
particularly in areas to the north and west of Madison.

Rest Of Overnight: Will continue to see areas of showers and
embedded thunder migrate across the region. Precip will be ongoing
within an unseasonably moist pre-frontal environment that was well-
sampled in last evening`s soundings at DVN and GRB, which reported
2.20 inch and 2.26 inch precipitable water values respectively. Thus
could see brief periods of 1-2+/hr rainfall rates in heavier rain
showers/thunderstorms through daybreak, though said rates will be
brief & isolated enough to preclude broader hydro concerns. With
winds going light along the slow-moving front, could also see
pockets of fog development through sunrise in locations north and
west of Madison. Don`t anticipate dense fog, but will nevertheless
be monitoring trends.

Today: Will see lingering shower and thunder chances into this
afternoon along the slow-moving cold front, with activity becoming
generally confined to south-central and southeastern Wisconsin by
mid-afternoon. Don`t expect any severe weather impacts in storms,
though brief heavy downpours will remain possible. Gusty north winds
will become established behind the departing front, resulting in
elevated wave heights at Lake Michigan beaches by mid-late
afternoon. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect from 4 PM
this afternoon through 7 AM Sunday at Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha
County beaches, where a high swimming risk is forecast. A moderate
swimming risk is anticipated over the same time period at Ozaukee
and Sheboygan County beaches. Exercise extreme caution if heading
lakeside this afternoon.

Tonight: Winds will begin to taper as high pressure settles into the
western Great Lakes. Could thus see additional fog development,
particularly north and west of Madison where winds will weaken
sooner.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Monday night through Saturday:

Looking at a typical Midwest summer pattern for the week with near
normal temps (highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s) and a few active
periods for potential showers and thunderstorms.

Surface high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes begins to slide
eastward overnight. Meanwhile mid-range models agree on a trough
trekking across the Upper Midwest into Tuesday. However, some models
such as the GFS do try and hint at a shortwave trough or two
ejecting out ahead of the main trough overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Nevertheless, this looks to be a potential active period of
the workweek. Expect the increased rain chances (30-50%) to continue
with the better potential into Tuesday afternoon. While there
remains disagreement in timing of the mid-level shortwave trough,
there looks to be southerly flow advecting in warmer temps and
dewpoints creeping into the upper 60s and low 70s. This looks to be
enough to build instability into southern WI with LREF members
pinging MUCAPE to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Thus would be a window for
some thunderstorms, but shear looks to be modest (<30kt), so not
expecting much in the way of strong to severe activity.

Midweek looks a bit more benign with upper-level ridge building
across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Expect temps
to gradually warm up Wednesday and Thursday back into the mid 80s.
While cannot rule out a few stray showers/storms through midweek,
mainly looking at a dry stretch. Model trends are hinting at another
active period for the end of the week. Timing varies, but the upper-
level ridge is progged to kick eastward followed by a deepening
trough, which would bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances
across the region.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mix of categorical reductions prevails this morning as a slow-
moving cold front crosses southern Wisconsin. The approaching
boundary will result in continued light winds and -SHRA chances near-
term at all terminals. Expect that the categorical reductions
currently being observed over the western half of the area will
overspread the Lake Michigan terminals through sunrise. -SHRA and -
TSRA chances will linger into this afternoon along the slow-moving
cold front, particularly across south-central and southeastern
Wisconsin. Winds will turn northwesterly along and behind the cold
front by this afternoon, becoming gusty at times. Could see winds
turn northeasterly for a period near Lake Michigan if a lake breeze
develops. Anticipate prevailing VFR to return to all terminals this
evening as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains.

Quigley

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 325 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A cold front is approaching Lake Michigan early this morning,
supporting areas of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. The
boundary gradually work across the open waters today, supporting
additional periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms this
morning and afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated. Light
winds along the approaching front and a very muggy air mass will
support areas of patchy fog through sunrise, particularly across the
northern half of the open waters. Dense fog is not anticipated,
though trends will be closely monitored. Breezy north winds will
become established by this afternoon as the cold front moves east of
Lake Michigan.

Currently centered over the Canadian Great Plains, 1018 mb high
pressure will advance into the western Great Lakes during the day on
Monday, maintaining northerly winds across the open waters. The high
will cross Lake Michigan Monday night, resulting in light and
variable surface winds. Periods of unsettled weather will return
Tuesday afternoon through late week as a broad area of 1000 mb low
pressure migrates from the Rocky Mountains into the Great Plains.
Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday and Friday through
Saturday are currently favored for the best shower and thunderstorm
chances. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming forecasts,
providing additional details as model guidance trends clarify.

North-northeast wind gusts and wave heights will become elevated
this afternoon through Monday morning in nearshore zones behind a
departing cold front. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
between 4 PM this afternoon and 7 AM Monday from North Point south
to Winthrop Harbor. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory north to
Sheboygan between 4 PM this afternoon and 1 AM Monday given
increased wind gusts in the overnight forecast. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front through this
afternoon, particularly from North Point south to the Wisconsin-
Illinois line. Severe weather is not expected in any of this
activity.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072...4 PM Sunday
     to 7 AM Monday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...4 PM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Sunday to 7
     AM Monday.

&&

$$

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