659
FXUS63 KMKX 101004
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as confidence in freezing drizzle chance early this
  morning, but still expecting brief period of light snow
  around daybreak Friday. Dusting to half inch of accumulation
  expected.

- 50-80% chances for snow Sunday, with potential for light
  accumulation.

- Temperatures around average through the weekend, the turning
  colder on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Today and Tonight:

Temperatures in the low teens to mid 20s are expected through
the rest of the morning across southern Wisconsin. What was
initially a chilly night for southeastern and portions of south
central Wisconsin, has improved. The initially chilly start to
the night was in part due to the clear skies. As a cold front
has approached the state from the northwest overnight clouds
have slowly expanded across the region. There is also some warm
air advection that is working its way up from the south. This
low level warm air advection has worked to counter the now partly
cloudy skies keeping dewpoints and temperatures up.

As the cold front and trough moves through the Great Lakes
Region early this morning there will be a small chance for some
light snow and freezing drizzle. With the warm air advection
the is enough moisture and saturation in the low levels (but not
enough warm air to bring temperatures above freezing). While
saturation isn`t an issue there just wont be a lot of it. So QPF
amounts are low resulting in some higher confidence in trace to
maybe half an inch amounts. Now the potential for freezing
drizzle comes in with the loss of ice crystals aloft. Some drier
air aloft and weaker forcing on the front and back side of the
cold front will limit the ability to make ice crystals and
therefore introduce the light freezing drizzle. The good new is
this area is very narrow on the leading edge and tail end of the
cold front. In addition, any increase in forcing should quickly
negate this issue. A glaze of ice and trace to roughly half inch
of snow will be possible during the morning commute across
southern Wisconsin. Be sure to allow extra time when traveling
this morning as elevated and untreated surfaces could be slick.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

Quiet conditions are expected to return Saturday as a sfc ridge
moves through the Great Lakes Region. As the sfc ridge moves
through there should be a period of partly cloudy to most clear
skies with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Cloud
cover will return from the northwest as a low pressure system
approaches the region for the end of the weekend.

Saturday night through Sunday will bring a return of our chances
for snowfall. The approaching low pressure system is expected to
swing through southern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin
before moving northeast in Ontario by Monday morning. A swath
of snow is expected to move through the state as the low moves
through and lifts northward. Light to moderate snowfall is
expected to start late Saturday continuing through Sunday before
ending west to east. Higher totals for snowfall are still
expected to stay to the north of our forecast area. Generally
around 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected with the higher totals
expected across central Wisconsin and low as you head toward the
state border. Some higher totals could be possible due to any
wavering in the track of the surface low. If the low pressure
system moves slightly further south then higher totals could
move into south central Wisconsin.

Once this low pressure system has begun to move out of the area,
northwest winds and cold temperatures are expected to move back
into the state. Highs in the teens and overnight lows in the
single digits to near zero are expected early next week. Breezy
northwest winds could keep wind chills below zero. Tuesday
currently looks to be the coldest with wind chills approaching
the negative teens during the morning hours. Temperatures do
look to moderate a bit as we get some southwest winds for the
latter half of the work week. Quiet weather is expected through
throughout the work week.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected throughout the period. MVFR
ceilings are moving through southern Wisconsin this morning due
to a sfc low and frontal boundary advance east through the
state. Freezing drizzle may be possible ahead of this front. Any
freezing drizzle is expected to be short lived. Light snow is
far more likely along the cold front this morning. A brief
period of snow along the cold front with light accumulations of
a trace to roughly half an inch will be possible. Precipitation
will come to an end late this morning into the early afternoon
from west to east. Ceilings are expected to improve behind the
cold front with VFR conditions returning and the deck scattering
out a bit. Southwest winds this morning will become
northwesterly behind the cold front and may be breezy with gusts
up to 20 mph possible through the afternoon today. Northwest
winds will continue through tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Low pressure averaging 29.9 inches and associated cold front will
cross Lake Michigan early this morning with winds becoming
westerly behind the front on Friday. The low pressure will be
moving from southwest to southeast Ontario today.

On Sunday, an area of low pressure of 29.6 inches is expected to
cross southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin, reaching Lake
Huron early Monday morning. Winds will be from the south Sunday
morning ahead of this low, shifting to the west Sunday night as
the low moves across Lake Michigan. Gusty west to northwest are
then expected Sunday night through Tuesday. A few gusts may
approach gales Sunday night and Monday

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee