280
FXUS63 KMKX 101854
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
154 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat above normal temperatures through early next week,
  cooling back to around normal by mid-week

- A few showers possible near Lake Michigan Saturday, but
  otherwise dry weather through the weekend

- Shower chances return Sunday night into Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

A cold front will continue to push southeast through southern
Wisconsin late this afternoon into the evening. Limited
moisture is expected to result in a mainly dry frontal passage,
with mostly clear skies expected tonight behind the front as
high pressure moves in. Lighter winds are also expected tonight
under the high, which will allow for temps to dip below 40 in a
few spots. Not out of the question for some patchy frost, but
widespread frost is not anticipated.

Cooler temps and onshore winds tomorrow will likely result in some
lake effect clouds in at least the eastern forecast area. This flow
off the mild lake waters may result in enough moisture for some
diurnal cumulus farther inland. Could see a shower or sprinkle in
the east tomorrow too, given colder temps aloft resulting in surface
to 850 mb temp differences of 13 to 15 C. Despite the cooler
conditions aloft, high temps tomorrow will still be near normal
across southern Wisconsin.

Winds will become southeast on Sunday as high pressure departs to
the east ahead of an approaching low. Scattered high clouds are
expected Sunday, with less clouds in the lower levels given milder
temps aloft and less of a chance for lake effect clouds. High temps
Sunday should warm back above normal given the mild low level flow,
with highs likely pushing or reaching 70 inland from Lake
Michigan.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Monday through Friday:

A low pressure system passing by well to the north early Monday
will drag a cold front into southern Wisconsin during the day.
The forcing with this front is currently expected to be
weakening as it moves into the forecast area, with a decreasing
chance for showers from west to east as the front moves through.
A weak shortwave moving through the baroclinic zone on Tuesday
may bring a few more showers to southern Wisconsin, with high
pressure expected to result in a dry day on Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures are likely to settle into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday behind the cold front, with highs falling to around
normal by Wednesday.

Periods of warm air advection late week will likely bring shower
chances back to southern Wisconsin. The timing of better forcing and
thus higher precip chances is uncertain being nearly a week out, so
chances were kept on the low end for now. Temperatures are expected
to gradually warm back up late week as well, as upper level ridging
builds in from the west.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Clouds will continue to clear out northwest to southeast this
afternoon and evening, with mostly clear skies expected
overnight. Ceilings will mainly be the 3-6 kft range while
clouds linger this afternoon and early evening. Clouds will then
increase tomorrow morning in the afternoon, particularly east of
Madison due to moisture and lift from lake Michigan under
onshore winds. Could see a few showers near the lake as well,
with ceilings in the east possibly dipping to MVFR at times.

Breezy southwest winds ahead of a cold front this afternoon will
veer northwest to north later this afternoon into this evening
as a cold front sweeps through. Winds will become lighter for
tonight into Saturday under the high.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 154 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Low pressure of 29.8 inches over northern Lake Superior this
afternoon will move southeast tonight, reaching southwest
Ontario by daybreak Saturday while weakening to 30.0 inches.
Meanwhile, high pressure of 30.2 inches will move in from the
northwest tonight into Saturday. Breezy southwest winds this
afternoon will become northwest to north later today into
tonight as a cold front drops through the area, while weakening
as the high builds into the area.

The latest wind and wave forecast suggests that Small Craft
Advisory level winds and waves will remain possible later into
tonight than expected, so the advisory was extended until 4 AM
CDT.

Southerly winds will return to the area Sunday into Monday as
the high heads east ahead of an approaching low and associated
cold front. Winds will also increase during this period, with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible at times.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM
     Saturday.


&&

$$

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