Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
165 FXUS63 KMKX 040316 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy ground fog and valley fog will be possible tonight. - Wildfire smoke will create haze and air quality at unhealthy levels at times into tomorrow. An Air Quality Advisory is in effect until Noon Monday. This advisory may need to be extended further, pending air quality observations Monday morning. - Heat and humidity gradually return this upcoming work week, along with shower and thunderstorm chances. && .UPDATE... Issued 1012 CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Forecast details from the afternoon AFD remain on track this evening. Smoke remains, with many lakeshore ASOS sites reporting 5 statute miles of visiblity and smoke and haze. HRRR smoke models suggest near-surface smoke concentrations will remain high into tomorrow afternoon, with a bit of clearing during the early evening. Smoke concentrations may then rise a bit Tuesday morning. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Tonight through Monday night: Quiet weather and smoky skies remains across Wisconsin. Temperatures are pleasant and winds are light as high pressure lingers overhead. The high pressure will slowly push east over Lake Michigan Monday morning. As the high moves eastward it is expected to strengthen which will keep conditions the same as they have been the past couple of days. Therefore, Monday will be much of the same. Tonight, fog will again be possible. Low lying areas and river valleys will have the best potential for fog. Areas like the WI River Valley will be susceptible to dense fog. For the smoke specifically, you can see the smoke sitting across Wisconsin and Michigan on visible satellite. Under the light winds it will be hard to mix out any smoke until the high moves east and winds increase. This matches well with what both the HRRR and RAP models have. The RAP near sfc smoke is a bit weaker than the HRRR, but the overall pattern remains the same. Thankfully a pattern shift and wind shift are on the horizon. Patterson && .LONG TERM... Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: Conditions remain dry as the upper level ridge and sfc high pressure continues to slowly move eastward and strengthen. Winds will become more easterly to southeasterly Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper level ridge moves east and a shortwave trough moves in. As the shortwave moves through the upper level flow, southerly winds will return in earnest across the state. This should bring WAA, increasing PWATs and a break from sfc smoke. Models are still split on if we will have enough moisture by the time this shortwave moves through to give us rain/storms. However, this shortwave is likely to open the door to a more active pattern change. Undercutting the strength of the ridge to our east will allow additional shortwaves and even a trough to swing through for the end of the week. Models are still uncertain on timing here as each run and model has its own thoughts on how quickly shortwaves will move in and how much they cut into the ridge vs riding over top of it. So late Wednesday through Sunday the best chances for rain (POPs of 20-30%) will be to our north. Otherwise low chance POPs move in and out of southern Wisconsin around 10-20%. One consistency in this pattern is the persistence of southerly winds and a return to warm and humid conditions. High temperatures look to return to mid 80s to low 90s for the mid to late week. Patterson && .AVIATION... Issued 1004 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Expect continuing dry conditions amid high pressure. Skies will remain CLR to SCT amid passing high clouds. Visibility may continue to be restricted through tomorrow owing to smoke and areas of ground fog overnight, and then smoke during the daytime hours tomorrow. At this time vis down to 5 to 6SM may occur at times tomorrow overall of southern WI. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 215 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure remains across the Great Lakes Region through the start of the work week. Light and variable winds will remain across the lake through Tuesday before becoming southerly Wednesday as the high pressure exits to the New England states and low pressure passes to the north. Patterson && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee