998
FXUS63 KMKX 280829
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected through
  this morning, as a cold front moves south through the area.

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm (20 percent chance or less)
  may linger across southeastern Wisconsin into the afternoon

- A period of dry and fair weather is forecast for Saturday
  into early next week. Temperatures will be several degrees
  below normal values into this weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Today through Friday:

The shortwave trough is swinging through early this morning and
the cold front is slowly crawling down the state. The east to
west line of storms across central Wisconsin are associated
with cold front while the northwest to southeast oriented line
in western Wisconsin is associated with mid level convergence
and WAA. Regardless of what is driving the rain, there are
isolated to scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder at
times. There is around 500 J/kg of CAPE at best with a skinny
profile. This small CAPE amount and profile will be good for a
few rumbles of thunder, but not much else. Right now the best
potential for lightning and thunder is across western Wisconsin
with the better WAA.

There is a small chance (20% or less) for some rain showers to
linger into the afternoon hours for southeastern Wisconsin.
These lingering showers are likely to initially be along and
just behind the frontal boundary as it is slow moving. There
will also be some mid to low level frictional convergence coming
off the lake. The north to northeast winds coming off Lake
Michigan will be breezy and the cold air temps over the warmer
lake should give us a bit more available moisture. The slight
elevation change along the Kettle Moraine will also provide some
meager lift given the wind direction. Semantics, but this wont
be lake effect rain like what Michigan got earlier in the week
as winds will be shifting in direction and this will disrupt low
level convergence over the lake. Given the breezy conditions
coming off of Lake Michigan, waves will also build along the
beaches and nearshore areas. This will create hazardous swimming
conditions. Be sure to keep away from piers and breakwalls.
There are also hazardous conditions for Small Crafts (more info
in the Marine Section).

Conditions will dry out later this afternoon into the evening
across southern Wisconsin and some slightly cooler temps will
set in overnight. These slight cooler temps will be right along
the lines of what we have already had this last week. Lows in
the 40s to low 50s along the lake shore. Highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s for the next couple days. There is a small chance
(10-20%) for some showers across west central Wisconsin Friday
morning and afternoon (areas north and west of Madison). This
would mostly be driven by some mid to upper level confluence and
weak shortwave. Between the exiting trough in the New England
states and a strengthen low in the northern Rockies there could
be just enough moisture and lift/convergence to get some
isolated showers. Confidence is low on if we will get any of
these showers as the better chances look to be further west with
a lingering stationary boundary, but could rule of the chance
of a few stray showers. Majority of the area will be dry
regardless.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Friday night through Wednesday:

Northwest flow will linger at 500 mb over the region Friday night
into Saturday night, with high pressure moving slowly to the east
of the region. This should maintain dry conditions with
temperatures remaining a little below seasonal normal values.

500 mb flow becomes weaker Sunday into Monday, as a high aloft
develops to the north of the region. There are some indications of
a weak 500 mb low developing over the Dakotas into Minnesota
Sunday, before weakening somewhat into Monday. Models are
generally keeping any precipitation with this feature to the west
of the area. For now, will maintain a dry forecast Sunday into
Monday, with temperatures moderating closer to seasonal normal
values.

There is more consensus with a rather amplified 500 mb shortwave
trough shifting southeast through the region by the middle of next
week, as a more longwave trough develops over central Canada into
the Great Lakes region. This may allow for a low pressure system
to move southeast through the region, with a fairly strong cold
frontal passage by Wednesday. For now, will keep NBM PoPs in the
20 to 30 percent range by Wednesday. Temperatures should remain
near seasonal normals into the middle of next week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Scattered to isolated rain and a few thunderstorms will remain
across southern Wisconsin through this morning. Isolated showers
will be hit or miss (within the vicinity) from roughly 8-10 Z
through 14Z. Showers may linger across southeastern areas into
the afternoon but confidence is low for this. If rain clears out
a bit across western Wisconsin there will be a potential for
some fog to develop in low lying areas, especially river
valleys and marsh lands. Winds are light and the low level will
be saturated. No dense fog is anticipated and any fog that
develop will burn off shortly after sunrise. Largely VFR to MVFR
conditions are expected with both the rain and fog through this
morning.

Southwest wind will persist ahead of the cold front early this
morning and remain light. Behind the cold front later this
morning and into the afternoon, north to northeast winds will
settle in and become breezy. Gusts up to 20 kts (~ 25MPH) will
be possible along the lakeshore. Winds will weaken and
conditions will dry out a bit heading into tonight as high
pressure begins to build in from the north.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 329 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A trough of low pressure and associated cold front are moving
south across the lake this morning. Southwest winds will
continue ahead of the cold front, veering due north to northeast
behind it. The passing front is producing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, with some potential for waterspouts
overnight over the northern half of the lake, then over the
southern half of the lake today. The potential for waterspouts
will linger over the southern half through this afternoon behind
the front.

This afternoon/evening north winds will become breezy. Wind
gusts of 20 to 26 knots will be possible across the lake. A
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from this afternoon
through early Friday morning due to the gusty winds and
building waves. Early Friday morning waves will remain elevated
while winds diminish. These winds will subside tonight into
Friday as high pressure around 30.2 inches builds in from the
north. An extended period of light and variable winds with quiet
weather will then occur this weekend through early next week,
as high pressure around 30.2 inches lingers over the upper Great
Lakes.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...noon Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...noon
     Thursday to 7 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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