Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
803 FXUS63 KMKX 131413 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 913 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers are likely across much of southern Wisconsin this morning. Showers will taper off from west to east through late morning. - A period of light rain is possible across southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with higher confidence in it occuring over southwest WI. && .UPDATE... Issued 913 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A broken area of rain showers continues this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Activity is being driven largely by 925-850 mb warm advection that`s been noted ahead of a slowly- approaching cold front. Activity will continue to move east through the remainder of the morning hours, shifting over Lake Michigan by the early afternoon hours. Observed and model soundings show weak (if any) MUCAPE within the warm advection band, making lightning & thunder unlikely in the ongoing shower activity. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 343 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Today through Tuesday: A north-to-south oriented line of light showers along a weak cold front will continue to track eastward across Wisconsin through mid to late morning. The main forcing for the precip along this line is 700mb frontogenesis and 500mb vorticity advection, with the stronger forcing focused toward central WI, generally north of US-18 and I-94. This is reflected by steadier reflectivity on the radar and lower cloud bases. This forcing is expected to weaken as the line tracks into eastern WI through mid morning. Therefore, the precip should become lighter and more widely scattered as it approaches the lakeshore. The weak surface cold front is lagging behind this line of precip, but features a wind shift to the north-northwest. This front will track across southern WI very slowly today since there is no real forcing to kick it through. Because of this, clouds along this front should linger over us through much of the day. There could also be a few light showers or sprinkles until this front passes. Since the surface front will be so slow to exit, the warmer air mass in place should allow areas west of Madison reach the lower 70s for highs as long as the clouds thin out. Temperatures will drop into the 30s across much of northern WI tonight, but our temperatures are expected to remain tempered in the 40s due to the lingering cloud cover. High pressure will push into northern WI overnight and this will finally push the cold front through southern WI. Expect northerly winds to accelerate down the long axis of Lake Michigan Tuesday morning. We could see some lake effect clouds with the colder air blowing across the relatively warm waters during the morning. Temperatures will remain in the lower 60s near the lakeshore and reach the upper 60s inland wherever the clouds can clear. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 343 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Tuesday night through Sunday: A 500 mb ridge axis should develop to the west of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, then build into the region for later in the week. High pressure at the surface should slide southeast into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There may be passing vorticity maxima at 500 mb and low level warm air advection that moves into the area during this period. This may bring some clouds and showers, though the air column is fairly dry below the middle levels on forecast soundings. The EPS ensembles are showing more members with measurable rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday than the GEFS/Canadian ensembles. So, PoPs Tuesday night may remain in the 30 to 40 percent range, with some lower values Wednesday morning. Temperatures look to be near or a little above seasonal normal values. Warm air advection later in the week may bring enough moisture into the area to bring some chances (20 to 30 percent) for showers and perhaps a few storms at times. Temperatures should trend upward by Friday, with cooler but still above normal temperatures lingering into next weekend, supported by ensemble trends. Wood && .AVIATION... Issued 913 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 RA is ongoing this morning as a cold front begins to move into southern Wisconsin. Majority of sites are reporting VFR CIGs & VIS readings as precip moves through, though a few pockets of MVFR/IFR CIG and VIS values have been noted within heavier activity. Have addressed these scattered pockets of reductions with TEMPO groups near-term at SBM and UES, with radar & obs trends continuing to be monitored as the back edge of RA approaches MKE and ENW. RA will push east of the region by early afternoon, resulting in the return of prevailing VFR at all fields. The aforementioned cold front will cross southern Wisconsin this afternoon, resulting in a northerly wind shift at all aerodromes by early evening. North- northeast winds will become breezy following sunrise Tuesday. Have maintained a VFR forecast at all fields through mid-day Tuesday, but will be monitoring for possible lake effect cloud development & MVFR CIGs. Lake effect cloud potential is greatest in the vicinity of MKE and ENW. Uncertainty regarding the precise locations of cloud development will preclude any mentions in the 15Z update, though trends will continue to be monitored through this evening. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 343 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A weakening surface trough extending from low pressure moving from southern Manitoba to northwest Ontario will slide across Lake Michigan today. Southerly winds will ease today and become northerly and breezy in the wake of a cold front Tuesday morning into Wednesday. High pressure then settles over the region later Wednesday into Thursday. Breezy southerly winds are expected Friday as low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. Winds and waves are no longer reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria (over 3 feet), so we cancelled it. The persistent northerly winds in the wake of a cold front tomorrow will build high waves along the Nearshore again, so a SCY will likely be needed Tue morning into Wed morning. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee