781
FXUS63 KMKX 011536
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1036 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds will bring cooler high temperatures to southern
  Wisconsin, in addition to Small Craft Advisory conditions to
  nearshore zones today.

- Cool, Fall-like lows are expected tonight. A few patches of
  frost can`t be ruled out over Green Lake and Marquette
  Counties.

- Near to slightly above-normal temperatures continue through
  this weekend.

- Apart from an isolated shower Thursday night, the next chance
  for rainfall doesn`t arrive until Saturday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1025 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

The cold front has passed through southern Wisconsin and is
trekking across the far southern portion of Lake Michigan late
this morning. Breezy northwest winds will continue throughout
the day before relaxing tonight as high pressure moves into the
region. The forecast is still on track through tonight.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A cold front is in the process of crossing
southern Wisconsin this morning. 3 AM surface observations place the
boundary along an approximate Fond du Lac - Watertown - Monroe axis,
with steady eastward progress to the Lake Michigan shoreline
expected through sunrise. The front marks the leading edge of a
significantly drier air mass, with 10+ degree hourly dew point drops
having been the norm at area obs sites. This drier & cooler air mass
will become fully entrenched across the region this afternoon thanks
to gusty northwest winds behind the departing cold front. Gusts will
taper following sunset tonight, with the lighter surface winds
combining with mostly clear skies to support chilly overnight lows.
While not expected to be widespread, a few patches of frost are
possible over Green Lake and Marquette Counties. Winds will turn
southwesterly on Wednesday afternoon as a weak area of low pressure
develops along the US-Canadian border. The breezy to at-times gusty
southwest flow will allow high temps to climb a few degrees higher
relative to today.

Rest Of Overnight: The cold front currently progressing across the
area will reach the lakeshore through sunrise. Gusty northwest winds
can be expected as the boundary passes through. Patchy ground fog is
possible over far southeastern Wisconsin prior to the boundary`s
arrival, and has been accounted for in the near-term weather grids.

Tonight: Tapering wind gusts, clear skies, and very dry air will
allow for efficient radiational cooling across the region. Chilly
overnight lows can thus be expected, with readings ranging from the
upper 30s to low 40s. Some of the coolest temps will be found over
central Wisconsin--including Green Lake and Marquette Counties in
our area--where a few patches of frost are possible prior to
sunrise.

Quigley

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

Synopsis: Affiliated with weak low pressure forming along the US-
Canada border during the end of the short term, a weak/secondary
cold front is forecast to sag into central Wisconsin Wednesday
night. The boundary is expected to stall during the day Thursday,
ultimately crossing southern Wisconsin Thursday night into Friday as
an upper shortwave crosses the region. Lift from the front &
shortwave, in addition to any moisture that`s able to advect into
the region Wednesday afternoon, may provide just enough support for
a few isolated showers Thursday night. Post-frontal high pressure
will cross the region Friday, pivoting into Lower Michigan Saturday.
The next chance for rain arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning,
when a shortwave/surface cold front duo are progged to move across
southern Wisconsin.

Quigley

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1025 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mostly clear
skies are expected to continue behind the cold front today into
tonight. The gusty northwest winds behind the front will
continue through this evening before relaxing as high pressure
builds in from the west. Northwest winds tonight will become
southwesterly by Wednesday morning.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

A cold front is in the process of crossing the region this morning,
reaching nearshore zones and the open waters of Lake Michigan
through sunrise. Gusty northwest winds will become established in
during and after the frontal passage. Gusts will reach Small Craft
Advisory thresholds in all nearshore zones. Small Craft Advisories
are thus in effect between 4 AM and 5 PM today from Sheboygan to
North Point Lighthouse, and between 6 AM and 7 PM today from North
Point Lighthouse to Winthrop Harbor IL. Gusts will occasionally
approach gale thresholds over the southern open waters of Lake
Michigan through early afternoon, with an isolated gust above gale
force possible during this time period. Will monitor trends through
this morning, though the anticipated isolated nature of any gale-
force gusts precludes the need for any Gale Warnings at this time.

1030 mb high pressure will become established over the central Great
Plains this afternoon, weakening to 1016 mb as it drifts into the
Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. An area of 1002 mb low pressure will
simultaneously develop and track along the United States-Canada
border, reaching Lake Superior by Wednesday evening. This evolution
will allow for winds to shift out of the southwest on Wednesday
afternoon. Gusts will approach gale thresholds over the northern
third of the open waters during this time period. Gale Warnings are
not currently anticipated, but trends will be closely monitored
through today.

Quigley

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644 until 5 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday.

&&

$$

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