343
FXUS63 KMKX 190737
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
237 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures continue into the weekend. But a
  return to near normal temperatures next week.

- Dry conditions prevail through the day today, with a chance
  for showers and thunderstorms this evening and night.
  Additional rain chances are expected Saturday night into early
  next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Today through Friday:

Another warm day expected today with mostly clear skies and
925mb temps in the 23-25 C range. This should bring temperatures
to the mid to upper 80s for much of the CWA with cooler
temperatures near the lake from the expected development of the
lake breeze.

As we move through the afternoon and especially into the evening
hours we will see showers/storms pushing in the from the west as
a front pushes in with some PVA aloft helping out. The midlevel
moisture and WAA will be sufficient as well in allowing for the
potential for storms to push into the area. There is some
uncertainty on how early storms might push in but we could see
NW parts of the CWA get clipped by some storms in the afternoon.
However most of the potential convection is expected into the
early to late evening hours. While shear will certainly be
sufficient (30-40kts) for severe storms the timing of storms
being more in the evening suggests we will quickly lose much of
our instability in the evening hours. Thus we could expect some
stronger storms to the west, perhaps even some borderline severe
storms but as they slide east they will weaken as we move later
into the evening.

Generally CAMs suggest organized storm activity through the
evening and overnight period but they do not show much in the
way of stronger storms by the time they push into the western
parts of the CWA. Regardless we will watch for potentially
strong storms tonight.

Into Friday, models suggest the storms and remaining showers
will have pushed out of the CWA off to the east though still
awaiting the passage of the front which is estimated to come
through some time after sunrise Friday morning. The rest of the
day Friday looks relatively quiet with clearing skies from the
west through the day. Temperatures behind the front will be
cooler with highs only expected to reach the low to mid 80s

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Friday night through Wednesday:

Quieter conditions are expected to continue Friday night through
much of Saturday as another brief period of ridging pushes back
in with weak high pressure over the area. While some models
suggest an earlier arrival in the next system (GEFS), most
models suggest that much of Saturday will remain dry with the
next system not impacting the region until at least Saturday
night into Sunday.

This system will be fairly drawn out over the course of a few
days with an upper level closed low gradually migrating east
northeast from the southwest US on Saturday to the Central
Plains by Sunday. However the impacts of this system will be
felt further away as the closed low will feature a `wing` of PVA
extending eastward toward the CWA. This, in addition to broad
developing surface low pressure with some moisture available in
the midlevels as well as some WAA may lead to precipitation
starting as early as Saturday night with ongoing chances through
at least Monday night before the surface low pulls through.
Precip chances may linger into Tuesday on the backside of the
low before we finally see a return to drier conditions.

This system will bring us back to near average temperatures with
Sunday featuring the front coming through with broadly high
pressure conditions returning by Tuesday with highs the rest of
the week likely to be in the low 70s. Plenty of uncertainty with
precip chances beyond Tuesday. Some models suggest weak chances
for the middle of next week but by the end of the week stronger
high pressure should be building into the region in some form.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Some patchy ground fog again tonight especially across fields
and particularly for areas closer to the lake with high moisture
in the air. This fog is largely expected to remain consistent
though we are watching for the development of more widespread
fog this morning along the nearshore region in addition to some
lower stratus development. However in largely part we expect the
patchy situation to continue with otherwise VFR conditions. Into
the daylight hours fog will dissipate and leave a fairly quiet
and clear day with VFR conditions expected with light to modest
southerly winds (afternoon easterly component closer to the lake
with the lake breeze).

Into the evening There will the potential for storms and perhaps
stronger in western WI but overall heavy rain and thunder should
be expected overnight at some point across the CWA, finishing in
the east before sunrise Friday morning. The rest of Friday
should be relatively quiet with VFR conditions returning.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light winds and increasing humidity may lead to patchy fog across
the northern third of the lake early this morning. High
pressure over New England will gradually weaken and drift east
on today, with low pressure over the Plains strengthening. This
will produce south- southeast winds into Friday. A weak front
will push southeastward across the open waters tonight into
Friday, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drier
conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday before
another area of low pressure begins to push into the Great
Lakes region Sunday, with winds becoming generally easterly
ahead of this system. As low pressure approaches, additional
shower and thunderstorm chances develop. More westerly winds are
expected behind the system.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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