Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
964 FXUS63 KMKX 040741 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will impact the region early this morning, then gradually end by late morning into mid day. - Very warm and humid conditions are expected for today and Saturday, with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s. - Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into Saturday night, perhaps lingering into Sunday. Gusty winds and hail are possible late Saturday into Saturday evening, with heavy rainfall potential late Saturday into Sunday. - Not as hot but still humid, with occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Today through Saturday Night: A broad but weak low level jet overspreading the area early this morning has resulted in several clusters of showers and thunderstorms. As of 2 AM, an initial area of convection is moving across southeastern Wisconsin. Additional, more organized convection is moving southeastward from west central Wisconsin. This activity is being aided by a weak shortwave/remnant MCV, and will expand south-southeastward through sunrise. No severe weather is expected at this point, but frequent lightning and wind gusts of 30-40 MPH are possible. Heavy rain is also likely given PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Thankfully, this activity looks to be progressive enough to mitigate any widespread flood/flash flood concerns, but conditions will be monitored closely. Convection will continue to progress to the southeast this morning, as the MCV traverses the eastern edge of a building upper level ridge. The low level jet will weaken and the MCV will move south of the area by mid to late morning, which should result in most of the rain dissipating. A few showers or storms may linger over east central Wisconsin into mid day, where weak ascent will remain in place. Otherwise, couldn`t completely rule out a stray storm or two this afternoon along the lake breeze, but the vast majority of the area should be dry this afternoon and tonight. With the expectation of clouds clearing out by mid day, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. The warmest readings will be over the western half of the forecast area, where clouds will clear earlier. Dewpoints in the low 70s will result in heat index values between 95 and 100. Warm and muggy, but dry conditions are expected tonight, with lows in the low 70s. A cold front will make slow progress toward the region on Saturday, not reaching the area until the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will have plenty of time to again warm into the upper 80s and low 90s, though the higher readings will be across the east on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area Saturday afternoon, continuing through Saturday night. Given the amount of instability in place, some stronger wind gusts will be possible with storms on Saturday. Slow storm motions parallel to the front and continued high PWATs will also pose a heavy rain threat, especially for locations that pick up higher rain totals this morning. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Sunday through Thursday: The front will very slowly progress southeastward on Sunday before washing out across northern Illinois and Indiana, with rain gradually ending from northwest to southeast. Highs will be cooler, with readings in the low to mid 80s, though dewpoints will remain high. Weak high pressure will nose into the area on Monday, which should result in a fairly nice day. From Tuesday onward, a generally zonal to weak northwest flow pattern takes hold. Overall, this will favor temperatures around average (low to mid 80s for highs), with muggy dewpoints. There will be low to moderate (~20%-40%) chances chances for showers and thunderstorms on a near daily basis, though activity will likely be scattered in nature and not complete all day/wash out type rain events. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Thunderstorms will impact the terminals this morning, with gusty winds and MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Outside of any storms, VFR should prevail save for some patchy ground fog in a few spots. Rain is expected to end by mid day, with VFR expected thereafter. Steady southwest breezes are expected today and tonight. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure of 30.1 inches over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually move east today, with broad troughing of 29.6 inches over the central and northern Great Plains. South to southwest winds are expected today, with speeds increasing on Saturday, ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the lake late Saturday night. Northwest winds will become north behind this front Sunday and Sunday night. Thunderstorms will remain possible at times this morning, mainly over the southern half of the lake. Better chances for storms are expected Saturday night and early Sunday with the front. Winds will remain from the north on Monday as weak high pressure noses into the region, before southerly flow returns on Tuesday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee