Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
369 FXUS63 KMKX 111513 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1013 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Many rivers around the Milwaukee Metro remain in flood stage or will reach flood stage within the next 24 hours. These rivers are expected to stay in flood stage until mid-week. - Additional chances for thunderstorms will occur this evening into the overnight hours, and then again along a cold front on Tuesday evening. - Remaining humid until a cold front passes Tuesday night. Conditions then become more comfortable Wednesday and Thursday, before humidity returns Friday and Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Forecast is on track this morning, with earlier fog having dissipated to the southwest of Madison. Have allowed the previous Areal Flood Warning to expire in southeastern Wisconsin, where impacts from this weekend`s significant flooding event have retreated to near rivers and other localized low spots. Those in the previously-warned area are urged to heed remaining River Flood Warnings, in addition to any remaining road closures. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... Issued 457 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Today through Tuesday: A weak trough is currently making its way east over southern WI. With weakened winds around the base of the trough and moisture remaining elevated, low stratus and patchy fog have formed over much of the area. Fog and stratus will likely continue until the trough exits east after dawn and daytime mixing mixes out the fog and breaks up the cloud cover. Most of the daytime hours remain dry, but this evening into the overnight hours, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as an MCV from remnant convection over Kansas is expected to spark renewed thunderstorm development over Iowa. This activity should move from southwest to northeast over our CWA mainly after 7pm and linger into the early morning hours on Tuesday. It should be noted that some CAMs and ensemble guidance keep the bulk of this thunderstorm complex south of the state line, but given HRRR and RRFS solutions favoring a more northward track, have feathered PoPs as far north as Fond du Lac and kept PoPs around 50%. At this time rainfall looks to be progressive but PWATs between 1.8 to 2 inches will support more heavy downpours with this activity. Luckily HREF, EPS, and GEFS guidance suggest totals below an inch, though it should be noted that any convective elements will likely produce more rain locally than an ensemble can depict. Any rain falling on already saturated areas may cause additional flooding, though the progressive nature of tonight`s rain may limit high end concerns. Rain will linger until around dawn on Tuesday. A cold front is then expected to approach later in the day, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. CMiller && .LONG TERM... (Issued 423 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025) Tuesday night through Sunday: A weak cold front trailing from strong low pressure over Hudson Bay will finally pass Tuesday evening. A few lingering showers or storms are possible. A north to south sfc ridge extending from Canada will then build into WI for Wed and slowly shift ewd for Thu. Seasonal and dry summer conditions are forecast. Another round of strong cyclogenesis is expected from Saskatchewan to Hudson Bay from Thu into Fri nt, while a weaker shortwave trough will track from MN to Lake Superior on Thu. This will bring sly winds and a return of temps well into the 80s for Fri into the weekend. The trailing cold front to the low will become stalled over nrn WI Fri nt-Sat then possibly move through srn WI on Sun. Precipitation chances of 20-30 percent are forecast for the weekend. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Early morning fog has dissipated across the area, though low CIGs linger across the majority of southern Wisconsin. 15Z update has accounted for these trends, with the general expectation being for improving CIGs and returning VFR by early afternoon. Will be monitoring TSRA development over Iowa later today, as some model solutions suggest the potential for impacts to southeastern Wisconsin terminals overnight. Will continue to monitor trends and make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. Quigley && .MARINE... Issued 426 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly winds will continue early this week. The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Tuesday, with the best chances tonight into Tuesday morning. Low pressure of 29.8 inches and an associated cold front then sweep across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night bringing northwesterly winds and drier weather for the middle of the week. Patchy dense fog may occur at times due to the abundant moist conditions. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee