323
FXUS63 KMKX 222025
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
225 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow continues across southern WI with amounts of 1 to 3
  inches expected across southern WI along with some slick
  roads.

- Heavy freezing spray continues until 6pm.

- Overall the trend is for milder temperatures into the weekend,
  but with some brief periods of very cold temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 220 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

A bit more snow than originally expected, especially across the
southeast part of the area. This continues to be driven by good
snow ratios rather than higher QPF with confirmed ratios of 25:1.
In addition the thought that snow might lighten up across the
region this afternoon may have been a bit overblown primarily
due to having enough forcing in the low levels likely from WAA
which has also helped keep the ratios high. While snow rates
will come down a bit they now look more like light snow rather
than flurries, though only minor accums are expected this
afternoon.

The best snow rates to this point have remained south and east
of a line from Sheboygan to Madison to Mineral Point for much of
this event with much lighter snow to the north of that. However
outside of the far northern parts of the CWA latest data
suggests some filling in of snow showers north of Madison and
Mineral Point. Despite the lack of much of a lull this afternoon
the rates are expected to pick up a bit as we head into the
evening hours given slightly higher QPF with stronger lift in
the low levels from the cold front in conjunction with WAA ahead
of the front. This better snow potential will primarily be
focused in the southeast portions of the state but is now
expected to extend further north than originally thought. Snow
is expected to push out late this evening into the overnight
hours. Overall snow totals will be in the 1-3 inch range for
much of the CWA.

Into the day Thursday we should expect widespread clearing by
the mid to late morning with the front having pushed out and
CAA and the high pressure system pushing from behind. overall a
cool but quiet day Thursday is expected. Thursday night will be
chilly again with the strong CAA but this will be quite
temporary.


Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 220 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Largely quiet conditions are expected for southern Wisconsin.
Friday, the trough that has brought much of the Gulf Coast snow
will advance northeast pulling further away from the the Great
Lakes Region. On the heels of this exiting 500 mb trough will be a
weak ridge quickly moving through. At the surface, high pressure
will build into the Great Lakes Region for Friday giving the state
a break from the gusty winds. This area of surface high pressure
is expected to sink southward overtime.

Looking back at the 500 mb flow at ensemble clustering there
appears to be some pretty good agree for the larger steering
flow. The few questions that remain is how strong (or how high of
an amplitude) will the respective troughs and ridges be. The
larger pattern in question will begin to set up over the weekend.

The pattern in question will be a trough digging south across the
Pacific Northwest heading toward the Desert Southwest. This
trough will eventually become cut off, but the timing on this does
vary a bit from model to model. Zonal flow will remain across the
CONUS until this upper level low become cut off. Then a strong
trough in northeastern Canada and strong ridge off the coast of
the US will influence the larger scale flow. As we head toward the
end of the extended period the cut of low in the Desert Southwest
will gradually start to move east. Outside of some shortwave
troughs here or there, guidance seems to be on a similar page
here. So what does this all mean for Wisconsin, during the period
of zonal flow, Saturday through Monday, a return to near normal
temperatures is expected. A broad area of surface high pressure
will remain to our south and conditions will remain dry. Beyond
Monday, we can expect to see the pattern shift with the state
being caught between the trough to our east and ridge to our west.
Outside of the potential for a few shortwave troughs moving
through the larger flow, conditions should remain quiet. Trends
have temperatures increasing to normal or slightly above normal
for the work week. Will just have to keep an eye on any shortwave
troughs that try to approach the Great Lakes Region.

Patterson

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 220 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Snow continues across southern WI with VSBYS remaining around
2-5 SM for at least the next few hours. While we expected some
lightening of the snow it does not appear as though the snow
will lighten to the extent of just flurries. Into the late
afternoon and early evening snow is expected to pick back up a
bit still primarily across the southernmost parts of WI but will
still affect most of southern WI. Generally during this period
expect VSBYS from 1-3 SM.

CIGS continue to be all around the place as somewhat expected
with snow seemingly impacting the ceilings. Little to no snow
has generally brought VFR to borderline MVFR CIGS where light
snow conditions have brought solid MVFR CIGS. Generally MVFR
CIGS will continue pushing in into the evening with MVFR CIGS
persisting through much of the night before we start clearing
out in the early morning hours Thursday.

A return to VFR conditions are expected by early Thursday
morning with skies clearing entirely by late Thursday morning.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 220 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Low pressure over Lake Superior this afternoon will gradually
weaken as it tracks east-southeast across the northern Great
Lakes into tonight. Winds this afternoon while remaining breezy
with the strong pressure gradient between the low and the high
pressure in the mid Atlantic, have fallen below gale. A cold
front will then shift the winds to brisk northwesterly late this
evening and overnight and continue through Thursday. A Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning will continue until 0z due to the frigid
temperatures, breezy winds, and high wave heights.

The Small Craft Advisory has been extended in the nearshore due
to continuing breezy winds and high waves into the mid evening.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
     LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 6 PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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