643
FXUS63 KMKX 070843
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
243 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still cannot rule out some patchy fog development early this
  morning for areas west of I-39 corridor.

- Cool and dry conditions continue through the end of the work week.

- A more active pattern returns this weekend with increased rain
  chances (50-90%) Saturday night into Sunday. Additional rain
  chances will be possible again by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Today through Friday night:

Main concern for the near term is the potential fog development
across western portions of the CWA early this morning,
generally along and west of I-39 corridor. Upstream obs in
western WI indicate areas that received rainfall earlier in the
week paired with pockets of clearing is a recipe for patchy fog
with visibility in some spots dipping below 2 miles. While the
blanket of low-level stratus is quickly sliding southeast, a
narrow band of high clouds is filling in behind it along with
another patch of low stratus. Thus, while the low-level moisture
and light winds will contribute to drops in visibilites with
pockets of clearing, I do not foresee that window be open for
too long given the progressive cloud cover and will maintain
only mentions of patchy fog through the remainder of the
morning.

Otherwise, high pressure builds across the region bringing
cooler temps in the mid to upper 50s today, lows in the 30s
overnight, and drier conditions to southern WI as subsidence
helps clear out the cloud cover. As for winds there looks to be
a bit of a packed gradient between the incoming high and low
passing to north across Canada, so areas closer to the center of
the high, mainly south of I- 94 will see lighter winds while
areas north of I-94 may see some breezier winds this afternoon.

Friday will fairly similar to today, but may be a few degrees
warmer approaching 60F in some spots and will not be as breezy
across the northern half of the CWA as the pressure gradient
relaxes with high pressure settling over the region.

Wagner

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 239 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Saturday through Wednesday:

The center of high pressure will push east on Saturday and
southerly flow will gradually pick up ahead of the incoming
system. The cutoff low settling into the Four Corners region
today will gradually lift northeastward across the Central
Plains later Friday into Saturday. Still expecting some low-
level WAA to push into southern WI ahead of the low, but the
models and ensembles are lining up with the delayed start time
of precip. GEFS still seems to be the fastest bringing in the
next bout of rain, but it is aligning more with the ENS and GEFS
solutions of increasing rain chance Saturday evening through
Sunday. A s the low pivots into the region, still expecting it
to occlude and drag an occluded front across our neck of the
woods through the later half of the weekend. Overall, GEFS and
ENS are indicating high potential (>90%) to see measurable
rainfall across much of southern WI with this passing system,
but potential for QPF of a quarter of an inch or more remain
generally less than 50% and even lower for amounts exceeding
half an inch. The non-convective nature of this activity along
the occluded front seems to be the main driver of the lower QPF
amounts. If the low takes a more northern trek and deepens a bit
more, then there could be higher amount, but not seeing this
trend at this time. Nevertheless, any rainfall will be
beneficialto the area given the drought status across the
state.

Behind the weekend system, not seeing much of a signal for
cooler temps to follow. Generally looking at another stretch of
above normal temps for this time of year with daily highs in the
50s/60s. However, keeping an eye on the the next system which
begins to ramp up for the middle of next week as a trough
deepens across the Central CONUS and then lifts into the
Midwest. Given the latest trends, it looks to be another chance
for additional rainfall and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 239 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

While the potential for fog west of I-39 corridor remains
possible early this morning, the band of high cirrus followed
shortly by another patch of low stratus may be enough to
inhibit any wider spread development. Thus have left out
mentions of fog for MSN and JVL at this time. Otherwise,
expecting the MVFR ceilings in southeast WI to continue to push
off through daybreak with VFR condition prevailing through the
period as high pressure builds across the area. However areas
north of I-94, mainly SBM, will likely see some breezier
westerly winds as the pressure gradient between a low tracking
across northern Ontario and the incoming high tightens up
through the evening. Generally only expecting gusts up to 20
knots at times, while terminals further south should see winds a
bit lighter being closer to the high pressure center.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 239 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Westerly winds will increase across the northern half of Lake
Michigan as the pressure gradient increases between a deepening
low pressure tracking across northern Ontario and incoming high
pressure building across MN/IA border and into southern WI.
Small craft conditions may be possible for near shore zones
north of Port Washington today/tonight. Otherwise, expect
lighter, but still breezy west-northwest winds across the
southern half of the lake. Then winds gradually weaken as the
low departs to the north and the high pressure continues to
build across the Western Great Lake Region Friday before pushing
east Saturday. Winds veer more southerly and pick up on
Saturday ahead of an incoming low pressure system from the
Central Plains.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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