802
FXUS63 KMKX 142037
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
337 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light rain is likely (~50-75%) for much of
  southern Wisconsin tonight. The chance of rain quickly lowers
  Wednesday morning.

- Active end to the week with breezy conditions and several
  opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday
  through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Tonight through Wednesday night:

A weak 500mb wave and 850mb WAA and fgen will slide east and
southeast over the region this afternoon into tonight. While
thunder isn`t expected, rain will occur over the area, with
accumulation between a tenth to a quarter of an inch into
tomorrow morning. Precipitation should then slowly shrink and
dissipate Wednesday morning. Conditions should then remain dry,
before WAA driven rain move in from the west early Thursday.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday through Tuesday:

WAA related rain is expected to lift northeast of the area
during the day on Thursday. Temperatures will rise for Friday,
with highs in the upper 70s and breezy south winds. A cold front
is then expected to move in Friday into Saturday, with varying
solutions across the global models regarding timing. Euro and
Canadian solutions favor a slower frontal progression that would
have showers and thunderstorms lingering through Saturday
afternoon, while the GFS pushes the front through quickly by
Saturday morning, leading to a relatively dry Saturday. Given
model discrepancies, it is a bit too early to definitively
answer whether or not Saturday will be dry. Trends will be
monitored heading toward the weekend.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

MVFR continues along the lakeshore, while high VFR clouds have
moved overhead inland. Rain is moving in from the west, mainly
west of KMSN, with some light rain reported. Rain is expected to
spread over the area through tonight, with MVFR and IFR ceilings
expected over most of southern WI. Winds will remain light to
moderate and northeasterly overnight.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 253 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

High pressure of 30.5 inches over northern Minnesota will sink
southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes region through Thursday
morning. As this happens, breezy north winds will occur tonight,
with speeds easing going into Wednesday. Winds remain light going
into Thursday, but should come around to southeasterly and become
breezy again Thursday night into Friday morning as low pressure of
29.3 inches moves into south central Canada.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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