Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
841 FXUS63 KMKX 030910 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, perhaps lingering into the morning on Independence Day. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with any stronger storms. - Very warm and humid conditions are expected for Independence Day and Saturday, with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s. - Better chances for thunderstorms late Saturday into Saturday night, perhaps lingering into Sunday. Gusty winds and hail are possible late Saturday into Saturday evening, with locally heavy rainfall possible late Saturday into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Today through Independence Day: Light winds this morning will allow for east to northeast winds to develop off of Lake Michigan by midday and push westward this afternoon. This should keep high temperatures in the 70s toward Sheboygan and in the lower to middle 80s from Kenosha to Fond du Lac. West of this onshore flow, upper 80s to around 90 degrees are expected for highs, with light south to southwest winds. Diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by midday and linger into the afternoon. Forecast soundings become uncapped by peak heating later this afternoon, with the warm front still to the west and southwest of the area. The lake breeze boundary may touch off a few showers and storms this afternoon into early this evening, so kept the 20 to 30 percent chances going for this period. There is enough mean layer CAPE and deep layer bulk shear for gusty winds and small hail to occur with any stronger storms, though the lack of good upward vertical motion suggests storms should generally be widely scattered and short-lived. The warm front is then expected to gradually push northeast toward the area this evening and into the area overnight into early morning on Independence Day, before exiting to the north. The low level jet is generally to the west and northwest of the area during this time, so the best upward vertical motion will be in that area. Still, the front will be there to provide some upward vertical motion, with CAMs suggesting scattered showers and storms shifting through the area. So, kept the 20 to 40 percent chances for showers and storms later this evening into the morning on Independence Day. Morning activities on Independence Day will need to monitor trends with the showers and storms. The airmass should get capped off by midday and into Friday evening, with increasing south to southwest winds developing and bringing very warm and humid conditions into the area. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s. There is some potential for south winds to linger at the lakeshore, which may cool things down for those right along the lake. Those with outdoor activities on Independence Day should prepare for the very warm and humid conditions. Wood && .LONG TERM... Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Friday night through Wednesday: A warm and breezy overnight is expected Friday night into Saturday morning, with lows only dropping into the low to mid 70s. No precipitation is expected. Increasing southwest winds Saturday will bring another very warm and humid day, with highs in the upper 80s northwest to the lower to perhaps middle 90s southeast. Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s are expected once again. Precipitation is currently expected to hold off until at least late morning on Saturday, as a slow moving front and shortwave move into the region from the central and northern Plains. Slow forward motion of the front, high PWATs and storm motion parallel to the boundary will support a threat for heavy rain. A few of the stronger storms could also produce gusty winds, but shear vectors parallel to the front will limit overall storm organization. Rain and thunderstorms look to continue for much of Saturday night, before PoPs begin to gradually lower on Sunday as the front pushes east of the region. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with how fast drier air will filter into the area, so precip chances do remain rather uncertain for Sunday. A moderately active, zonal pattern looks to persist for much of next week, suggestive of temperatures generally around climatological averages. Rain chances will be tied to the passage of weak shortwaves and the interaction with various mesoscale features (remnant outflow, lake breeze, etc.), so predictability at this distance remains low. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Light winds this morning will allow for east to northeast winds to develop off of Lake Michigan by midday and push westward this afternoon. Light south to southwest winds are expected to the west of this area. Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by midday and linger into the afternoon. The lake breeze boundary may touch off a few showers and storms this afternoon into early this evening. Any storms should generally be widely scattered and short-lived. The warm front is then expected to gradually push northeast toward the area this evening and into the area overnight into early morning on Independence Day, before exiting to the north. Scattered showers and storms may shift through the area during this period. Light south winds are anticipated tonight. Increasing south to southwest winds developing on Independence Day will bring very warm and humid conditions into the area. There is some potential for south winds to linger at the lakeshore, but its uncertain if any southeast winds may affect the lakeshore terminals. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 410 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure around 30.0 inches will linger across the Ohio River Valley today, before moving to the east tonight into Friday. Light west winds will become north to northeast today and east to southeast tonight. Winds will then shift south on Friday, as a warm front moves north through the region. South to southwest winds will then increase Friday night into Saturday night, as low pressure around 29.4 inches moves across northern Ontario into Hudson Bay. The low will pull a cold front through the region Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds will become north behind this front Sunday and linger Sunday night. Gusty southwest winds and building waves Saturday afternoon and evening may reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters. Mainly small chances for thunderstorms are forecast later tonight into early Friday morning across southern portions of the lake. More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast for later Saturday into Sunday, as the cold front crosses the lake. Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee