562
FXUS63 KMKX 281639
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1039 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory is in effect this afternoon for all of
  southern Wisconsin. West to northwest wind gusts are expected
  to reach 45-50 mph.

- Chances (15-25%) for scattered showers along a cold front this
  afternoon (from 1 PM to 7 PM).

- A Gale Warning is in effect for southwest gales this morning,
  then northwesterly gales this evening and night in the open
  waters of Lake Michigan. Nearshore gales are likely primarily
  in the afternoon.

- Quiet and dry weather expected this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1008 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Strong southwest gusts have been observed this morning with the
strongest along the lakeshore through 10AM. Kenosha clocked in
with peak gusts around 47 mph and MKE at 44 mph. With these
observed gusts to advisory criteria, the wind advisory start
time was moved up to 10am and will run through 6pm this evening.

Gusts inland have mainly been from 30 to 35 mph, but are still
expected to come up this afternoon following the passage of a
cold front, as the atmosphere more efficiently mixes and taps
into a strong jet from the 925-800mb level.

Scattered rain showers (PoPs 25 to 30%), with a bit of graupel
mixing in given weak CAPE aloft and a low freezing level, will
also be possible this afternoon following the front.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Today through Sunday:

Strong low pressure will cross Lake Superior and northern
Michigan today, delivering a strong pressure gradient. Due to
the present nocturnal inversion, surface winds remain relatively
light until sunrise, mixing down much gustier winds shortly
thereafter. South to southwest winds with gusts to 30-40 MPH
are expected later this morning, but the start time of the Wind
Advisory has been left at Noon CST to reflect the rough arrival
time of the stronger west to northwest winds (with gusts to
around 45-50 MPH), peaking this afternoon.

Forecast soundings show a deep mixed-layer (over 5,000 ft AGL)
with steep lapse rates this afternoon, likely accompanied by
scattered to broken cumulus clouds. The layer beneath these
cumulus clouds will be exceptionally dry, likely resulting in
virga (precipitation that does not reach the ground). That said,
there is a slight chance (15-25%) to see some very brief
scattered rain showers between 1 PM and 7 PM today. With steep
lapse rates (for very shallow convection in the ML) and very
cold air arriving aloft, we could even see some graupel (snow
pellets) falling from these showers towards the very end of the
aforementioned time window, though the fast-moving and
scattered / isolated nature of the shower activity precludes any
concern of impacts.

Dry weather is expected through the weekend. Breezy northwest
to north winds continue into tonight. Overnight lows in the
upper teens expected. Mostly sunny with highs around 30 degrees
expected Saturday with only a light breeze remaining. Calm
winds combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night allow
temps to fall to the low teens. Temperatures rebound to the
upper 30s / around 40 on Sunday.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Sunday night through Thursday:

Sly winds and warm advection will increase Sun nt-Mon due to
broad upper ridging but also a shortwave trough tracking from the
central Great Plains to KY and TN. The nrn periphery of the PVA
and low to mid level warm, moist advection may reach srn WI with
40-50 percent chances for measurable precipitation. The pcpn could
start as a lgt mixture then becoming mostly lgt rain. Will have
to watch for a brief period of lgt freezing rain Mon AM as mid
level dry air may prevent ice introduction while sfc temps are
still below freezing.

A stronger shortwave trough will then follow across KS and OK on
Tue with cyclogenesis expected. The ensemble means of the
Canadian, ECMWF, and GEFS show fairly good agreement on the upper
wave and sfc low lifting newd with a 987 mb low over nw IN Wed AM
then tracking into srn Ontario or over the lower Great Lakes for
Wed afternoon and evening. Model QPF and the WPC forecast depicts
1-1.25 inches of liquid over srn WI with 0.50-0.75 inches toward
central WI. Due to fairly mild temps already in place ahead of
this system, rain is expected Tue nt with rain changing to snow on
Wed with some wet snow accum possible. Nwly winds and cold
advection will drop temps back into the 20s Wed nt, but rebound
into the upper 30s on Thu with the passage of a flat sfc ridge.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1036 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Strong southwest to west gusts have started this morning and
will continue into this afternoon. The strongest gusts from 35
to 40 knots will happen this afternoon following a cold front,
with wind directions coming around to northwesterly. Rain
showers, with potential for a bit of graupel mixed in, will
move through this afternoon, largely clearing the area to the
southeast by 00Z Saturday. High clouds are expected this
morning, but following the front, a deck of marginal MVFR to
low VFR ceilings should move in from the north, with heights
ranging from 3000 to 6000 feet.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 415 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Low pressure of 29.1 inches will move west to east across Lake
Superior this morning. Southerly winds over Lake Michigan will
rapidly accelerate towards daybreak, with southerly gales
expected after sunrise this morning. The low pressure will pass
over the northern end of the lake midday, causing a lull in wind
speeds, before a cold front sinks south over the lake, causing a
secondary period of west to northwest gales this afternoon. North
to northwest gales will continue through late tonight before
easing off in strength. Winds will remain elevated, however, into
the post-dawn hours of Saturday. Moderate freezing spray is likely
late tonight into Saturday morning, and may become heavy at times
over the northern third of the lake.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
     WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-
     WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6 PM
     Friday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 2 AM
     Saturday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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