979
FXUS63 KMKX 061452
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and cooler conditions are expected today. Frost is
  possible away from Lake Michigan late tonight.

- Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of next week,
  with continued dry conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 952 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The secondary frontal boundary denoted by the northwesterly
winds and slight temperature gradient is draped across central
Wisconsin late this morning will continue moving east today. The
west to northwest winds will continue to be gusty until high
pressure begins to build into the Great Lakes Region Monday.

With the colder and drier air mass moving in behind this
secondary frontal boundary and clear skies overnight there will
be a potential for some frost to develop. Frost is expected to
be patchy, confined mostly to low lying and shelter areas away
from Lake Michigan. The forecast is still on track.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Today and Tonight:

Gusty westerly winds are expected today in the wake of a potent
low pressure system. The low tracked across Ontario overnight
and will continue to progress northeast today. There is a
secondary cold front pushing into northwest WI early this
morning, and this will give us an extra push of gusty winds in
southern WI this afternoon. High pressure will wedge into the
Upper Midwest later today and tonight.

Gusts will be in the 25 to 30 mph range during peak daylight and
mixing hours today. Temperatures were at their highest at
midnight, prior to the frontal passage, and are falling into the
upper 50s early this morning. They are only expected to recover
into the mid 60s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies,
except around 70 in far southeast WI. Dewpoints should be in the
mid to upper 30s today.

Winds will become light late tonight under clear skies. With a
strong surface inversion and cooler air mass overhead, low
temperatures should dip into the mid to upper 30s for inland
areas. Patchy frost is in the forecast, targeted for the typical
low spots.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Surface high pressure will sit over the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes through Thursday, giving us a dry forecast. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the week. There will be a frost
potential again Monday night and Tuesday night for inland
areas/low spots.

The main concern each day will be how low dewpoints and hence
RH values will be each afternoon. Vegetation/fuels are drying up
and we will have an increasing fire weather concern for the
next time we have windier conditions.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 952 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected today. The VFR
conditions under mostly clear skies will continue through mid
next week. Gusty west to northwest winds are expected through
late this afternoon behind the passage of a secondary cold
front. Winds will begin to weak overnight ahead of an
approaching high pressure system. Light westerly winds are
expected through Monday night.

Skies will be mostly clear with a small chance for some mid
level clouds around 4-6kft to move into central Wisconsin early
this afternoon. These mid level clouds are expected to be
scattered and diminish as the move through the area.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

The Gale Warning will expire as planned at 4 AM. We still have a
sliver of the northeast part of Lake Michigan with southerly
gusts and the gale potential. Otherwise, winds are becoming west
to northwest in the wake of a cold front this morning. Gusts up
to 30 kt are expected today. A secondary cold front will track
across the north half of the lake this afternoon and there is a
potential for a few gale force gusts.

Look for winds to diminish overnight through Monday as high
pressure expands into the region. Winds will remain light
through much of the week, as high pressure lingers across the
Midwest.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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