282
FXUS63 KMKX 041436
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
936 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy ground fog and valley fog will be possible again
  tonight.

- Wildfire smoke will create haze and air quality at unhealthy
  levels at times through at least today. An Air Quality
  Advisory is in effect until noon. This advisory may need to be
  extended further, pending air quality observations this
  morning.

- Heat and humidity gradually return this upcoming work week,
  along with shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 935 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Largely quiet conditions continue with smoke and resulting air
quality issues continuing to be the main concern for today into
Tuesday. Models suggest smoke will continue to today and may
reduce air quality to the unhealthy levels but tonight into
Tuesday morning conditions should gradually improve with an Air
Quality Advisory likely to continue into tomorrow but may not be
needed beyond Tuesday morning. The smoke and air quality are
also continuing to cause visibility concerns this morning and
given the visibility concerns yesterday this seems likely to
play a role most of today as well with additional fog concerns
overnight. Other than that high pressure remains overhead with
no chances for precip through Tuesday night.

Kuroski

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Today and Tonight:

Another quiet day is expected today under high pressure.
Sunshine will be filtered through smoke again, but should be
enough for highs near normal. Could see the Air Quality Advisory
extended once again given the latest HRRR smoke projections.
Light winds and limited clouds cover will likely lead to some
fog once again tonight in river valleys and other low lying
areas.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

High pressure will continue to support dry conditions through at
least Thursday morning. Heat and humidity will also begin to
increase late week as a ridge amplifies into the the Upper Great
Lakes region as troughing breaks down over Middle Appalachia. By
late week, better flow aloft will build over the Northern plains
into the Upper Great Lakes, with a surface trough approaching
Wisconsin Friday night into Saturday. With the better flow aloft
and surface lift from the trough, thunderstorm chances increase
next weekend with the NBM painting 15 to 25 percent PoPs over the
region Saturday through Sunday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 935 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

The main concern continues to be smoke and the resulting impact
limiting VSBYs to MVFR. Given what occurred yesterday with the
smoke and VSBYs expect MVFR VSBYs for much of the day with
improvement into the evening. However into the evening with high
pressure and calm winds with plenty of evapotranspiration expect
developing fog to limit VSBYs again overnight. Into Tuesday
morning however we may be able to finally see smoke clearing out
a bit more with limited impacts to VSBYs expected at this time
but this still remains a bit uncertain until we fully push out
the high pressure toward midweek.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

High pressure around 30.2 inches will remain over the Great
Lakes Region through Tuesday. Light and variable winds are
expected across the Lake until the high shifts eastward into the
New England states by mid-week. Light to moderate southerly
winds return will return Wednesday. A low pressure system around
29.8 inches will move from the Northern Plains toward Hudson
Bay and drag a warm front across Lake Michigan Wednesday into
Thursday. Isolated showers and storms will be possible across
the northern third of the lake. Winds will remain southerly
through the end of the week.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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