Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
872 FXUS63 KMKX 072000 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continue to see northward trend in heavy band of snow into northern WI. While seeing lower amounts, still expecting to see accumulating snow (2-4 inches) for areas north of I-94/HWY-18 with less than an inch or two further south. Also cannot rule out a wintry mix along the WI/IL border. - Below normal temps next week with highs in the teens and 20s. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: High pressure will work its way eastward through the evening where westerly winds become more light and variable overnight. High clouds linger insulating the area and will keep temps a bit warmer than the previous night. Looking at lows in the 20s. Continue to keep an eye on Saturday snowfall potential. Overall the majority of the models agree that the heaviest snow band looks to develop north of the area generally somewhere between Wausau and Green Bay. Thus snowfall amounts continue their lowering trend across the, but still expecting our east-central WI counties (Marquette to Sheboygan) to be clipped with maybe seeing 2-4 inches. As you continue to go south to I-94 expect snowfall amounts to be even lower 1-3 inches as it gets farther away from the low-level frontogenesis forcing that is one of the main drivers of this system. Meanwhile areas south of I-94 to the WI/IL border will likely to see amounts less than an inch. This tends to line up closest with the mean/50th percentiles of the NBM as well as the 12z HREF runs. Much of this activity is likely to occur between a 12 hour window from 12z Sat-00z Sun. Additionally given the northern trends, cannot rule out some freezing drizzle to mix in with the snow given some drier air from the dry slot. This would be more likely if the forecast continues to trend toward the 10th percentile. However most 12z-18z model soundings keep the DGZ saturated across southern WI especially with an easterly wind off the Lake. Nevertheless cannot rule out some light glaze mixed in with the light snow at times closer to the Cheddar Curtain. Overall following the latest model trends of where the band of higher QPF and snowfall sets up, will continue to hold off on issuing headline at this time. However given the tricky and mesoscale driven nature of the banded snow where minor shifts can lead to big impacts, still cannot rule out needing to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for snow across a row or two of our east-central counties, especially if we end up seeing the band shift south in the last minute as the high end (90th percentile) might suggest along with an outlier model or two. Snow and wintry precip activity will wrap up through the early evening as the shortwave trough over the region and dynamic forcing slides eastward. Northwesterly flow will back fill behind this departing system and will begin to usher in colder and drier air overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025 Sunday through Friday: Upper-level zonal flow sets up over the Midwest Sunday through early part of next week. Meanwhile surface high pressure along with colder Arctic air is progged to establish itself over the region as well. Thus will see colder, below normal temps for early next week with highs in the lower 20s to teens and single digit overnight lows. Looking ahead to the middle of next week, WPC Cluster analysis hints at a fairly consistent pattern bringing a 500mb trough across the Central CONUS along with another bout of active weather to the region. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025 High clouds and VFR conditions will linger through the evening as high pressure works its way across the region. Will see light and variable this evening and overnight as well. Expect winds to turn more easterly and pick up Saturday morning as a surface low tracks across the Plains and to our south. Will see a period of snow and lower ceilings (mainly MVFR with pockets of IFR) with this system Saturday through the day, but the trend for higher amounts continues to shift north closer to a line along and north of EAU-GRB. However still cannot rule out SBM being clipped with 2-4 inches of snow, while terminals further south are expected to see less snow. Areas along the WI/IL border, such as JVL may even see a wintry mix with this activity. Otherwise, expect a colder airmass with northwesterly winds behind this wintry activity for Saturday night. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 200 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025 Lighter west to northwest winds linger across the lake this afternoon and evening as high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes. Will see winds turn easterly on Saturday and pick up a bit as low pressure works its way up the Ohio River Valley through the day Saturday. Accompanying this system will be bands of snow/wintry mix across the northern half of the Lake. By Saturday night winds will turn more north then northwesterly as the low pressure pushes further east. High pressure begins to build across the Upper Midwest for Sunday before spreading into the western Great Lakes early next week. Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee