Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
635 FXUS63 KMKX 010203 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 903 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - River flooding and high water levels continue this week. Additional rises will be possible with any heavier rainfall (late Monday night through Tuesday night). - A moderate swim risk is in effect for Lake Michigan beaches in Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties through this evening. Winds and waves subside tonight. High Swim Risk expected Tuesday. - Next chances for thunderstorms is late Monday night through Tuesday night. && .UPDATE... Issued 902 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Skies are clear and winds are diminishing quickly with high pressure over the region. Patchy fog is possible in river valleys and low spots but dewpoints mixed into the mid/upper 40s this afternoon so widespread fog is not looking likely tonight. Lows will be around 50 for inland areas, but sites dropping to 48 is possible for central portions of the forecast area like Dodge and Jefferson counties. Another pleasant day is on tap for tomorrow. Cronce && .SHORT TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Tonight and Monday: High pressure resting over the region tonight will keep skies clear and winds light and variable tonight, allowing temps to fall to around 50 degrees and potentially create some radiation fog. Very few models (mainly just the NAM Nest) show a signal for fog despite the favorable synoptic setup. Hence, forecast confidence will likely remain low until it shows signs of developing. For now, the expectation is a chance for thin / patchy fog, with a few pockets of dense fog possible, mainly in low lying areas, marshes, and river valleys. The moderate swim risk will continue until late this evening for Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha County beaches on Lake Michigan. Buoy data indicates that waves are beginning to trend downward, hence the high swim risk has now expired. Quiet / dry weather continues into Monday. Daytime highs in the low 70s expected, with high altitude cloud cover gradually approaching throughout the day. Sheppard && .LONG TERM... Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Monday night through Sunday: Next active weather pattern spans from late Monday night through Tuesday night. As a trough axis in the 250mb jet digs into the northern plains, a surface pressure trough extending south of a low pressure in Manitoba will work with the departed high pressure to pull a moist gulf airmass northward, leading to an initial surge of WAA driven convection. A cold front extending south of the low will then sweep through the area, continuing the moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity into Tuesday night. It is too early to characterize what severe weather threats this may be capable of, but for now, heavy rainfall appears to be the main concern, given that several rivers remain in flood stage from our previous round of storms. Wednesday is looking mostly quiet as the cold front moves clear of our southeastern CWA in the morning. Active weather then resumes for Thursday into the weekend as another low pressure system develops in the northern plains. Sheppard && .AVIATION... Issued 902 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Clear skies and calm winds tonight with brief, thin, patchy fog possible in low spots and river valleys. Winds will become southeast Monday. Not expecting much (if any) diurnal cumulus clouds Monday. Look for increasing high clouds in the afternoon and evening. Cronce && .MARINE... Issued 300 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Gusty north winds continue over the southern half of the lake this evening. Winds will weaken tonight into Monday and become predominately easterly (light and variable further north) as high pressure around 30.3 inches builds in from the Northern Plains. High pressure will advect east of the Lake Monday night, causing winds to become southeasterly and increase. South to southeast winds will linger into Tuesday night, before a cold front moves east across the region. Behind the cold front, southwest to west winds gradually decelerate throughout the day Wednesday. Weak high pressure passing over the lake Thursday will lead to light and variable winds. Sheppard && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee