466
FXUS63 KMKX 280357
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
957 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow is expected Saturday and Saturday night. A
  Winter Storm Watch is in effect for all of southern Wisconsin.
  Widespread snow totals in excess of 6 inches are possible.

- Below normal temperatures will likely persist through next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 955 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Aside from some flurries attempting to push into the region from
central WI over the next few hours, we`re looking at completely
dry weather from late tonight through Friday, with decelerating
northwest winds.

Arrival times for this weekend`s accumulating snowfall remain on
track according to the latest 00z model guidance, pushing into
far southwestern WI around or just after midnight Friday night,
pushing northeastward to encompass the rest of southern WI
through Saturday morning. The snow would then peak in intensity
from around Noon Saturday through around Midnight Saturday
night, gradually tapering down in a west to east manner late
Saturday night, and shutting off at some point Sunday morning,
leaving Sunday afternoon dry for the most part.

The ongoing forecast iteration will seek to pin down some more
specific amounts / placement of the heaviest snow, expected
rates, and if necessary, perform the upgrade from a Winter Storm
Watch to Warning.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Tonight through Sunday:

Snow showers and flurries embedded within persistent cyclonic
flow will continue through at least late this afternoon. The
more moderate snow showers will likely wind down first, with
flurries possibly lingering into the evening. Quiet weather is
then expected overnight and Friday as high pressure moves
through the region. Below normal temps will continue Friday.

Not a lot of change over the last 24 hours with the anticipated
winter storm this weekend. Surface low pressure will lift from
the Southern Plains Friday night to near the southern tip of
Lake Michigan Saturday night. Deterministic models are in pretty
good agreement with the track of this low, with some variations
still noted among the ensemble members. A prolonged period of
lift is expected with the ideal track of the surface low, the
700 mb low moving right overhead, the 500 mb trough becoming
negatively tilted as it moves through, and a fair amount of
upper level divergence. Confidence is high in widespread snow
accumulations.

One remaining concern with this storm is lingering significant
variations in models with total precipitation. The ECMWF
deterministic and ensemble mean along with the NAM remain the
highest with liquid equivalent precip totals, a solid .20" to
.30" higher then the GFS and Canadian deterministic and ensemble
totals. Given that models generally show the better warm air
advection and frontogenesis (especially 700-500 mb) south of
the forecast area, currently leaning towards the lower
solutions. Even with these numbers though, snow totals are still
reaching 6"+ without much trouble given this is a colder system
and snow to liquid ratios will average around 15-16 to 1. A
solid depth to the dendrite growth zone and persistent lift
within this zone also suggest decent SLRs.

Still looking at the potential for some lake enhancement as well
given models are coming into better agreement in a period of
prolonged southeast flow from 1000 to 850 mb. Kept some higher
totals in the east, which prompted the need to expand the Winter
Storm Watch to include Sheboygan and Fond du Lac counties. Also
included Marquette and Green Lake counties given the amounts
look marginally high enough along with the remaining potential
for some higher totals. Delayed the watch start time a bit given
latest trends with the start of the accumulating and impactful
snowfall.

The best period of accumulating snowfall is currently expected
to occur from mid/late Sat morning into Saturday night, with
snow winding down later Sat night into Sun morning. Breezy winds
and chilly temps are likely Sunday, with a little
blowing/drifting of the snow possible if the winds end up any
higher than currently anticipated.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sunday night through Thursday:

The extended models support a large upper low over Hudson Bay and
extending into nrn Quebec for next week, while mean shortwave
troughing will be in the vicinity of the Desert SW with an
upstream upper ridge in the ern Pacific Ocean. This yields a split wnwly
flow aloft for the central USA. Srn WI will be between a series
of shortwave troughs in the split flow for the week, although
slight chances (20%) for snow are forecast at times. At the
surface, polar high pressure and cold temps are expected for Mon-
Tue AM followed by swly winds and warm advection Tue afternoon
into Wed AM. A Canadian cold front will then pass late Wed
afternoon or night with cold advection and wnwly sfc winds into
Thu. High temps will be in the 20s most days with lows in the
single digits most nights.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 955 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

With the exception of slight flurry chances over the next few
hours (mainly towards central WI), dry weather is expected
overnight through Friday, with a continued northwest breeze.
Low-altitude clouds should remain scattered overnight into
Friday, though some brief pockets of broken MVFR ceilings
remain possible at times. Winds become nearly calm Friday
evening as high altitude clouds build into the region, thicken,
and gradually lower in altitude. That said, ceilings are
progged to remain VFR through around daybreak Saturday.

Accumulating snowfall is expected to arrive in a southwest to
northeast manner Friday night, around or after midnight for far
southwestern WI, spreading northeastward to encompass the entire
rest of southern WI through the course of Saturday morning.
Higher snowfall rates would then ensue from around Noon Saturday
through midnight Saturday night.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 327 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Low pressure of 29.4 inches over western Quebec will slowly
move eastward through Friday with some weakening. Occasional
gale force gusts will continue today over all of the lake, then
into this evening over the northern one third of the lake. A
ridge of high pressure will then move across the lake Friday
night with light and variable winds expected.

Low pressure of 29.8 inches will then track from eastern Kansas
Saturday morning to the southern tip of Lake Michigan Saturday
night, and then reach Lake Huron by mid Sunday while deepening to
29.7 inches. Widespread, moderate to heavy snow will overspread
the south half of Lake Michigan. Brisk southeast winds Saturday
will become easterly and then westerly as the low crosses the
Great Lakes region. Gales are not anticipated at this time,
although a period of gusty northwest winds is expected Sunday.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ062-WIZ063-
     WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...3 AM
     Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Storm Watch...WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-
     WIZ066...6 AM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until midnight
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 AM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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