Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
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FGUS63 KMSR 231758
ESGMIN
MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1257 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 17.0 22.0 24.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 39.0 40.0 42.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5 971.5 973.0 975.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
MVOM5 14.0 16.0 17.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
GTEM5 885.0 889.0 892.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5 14.0 15.0 16.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
RWDM5 6.0 15.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 21.0 23.0 26.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NULM5 800.0 804.0 806.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 22.0 27.0 32.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
NWUM5 11.0 13.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 22.0 25.0 30.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HENM5 732.0 736.0 739.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
JDNM5 25.0 28.0 34.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231757/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
: Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1/ 10.1
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3/ 32.3
:Minnesota River
BSLM5 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7/ 967.7
MVOM5 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.0/ 4.3/ 6.1/ 8.4
GTEM5 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.4/ 880.5/ 881.2/ 882.0
:Redwood River
MSHM5 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 6.8/ 7.1/ 7.9
RWDM5 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.9/ 2.4
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.8/ 9.9/ 12.6/ 14.4
NULM5 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.7/ 786.8/ 788.7/ 790.2
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.3/ 12.8/ 14.4/ 15.7
NWUM5 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.7/ 5.5/ 6.3
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 3.5/ 4.0/ 6.3/ 6.5
HENM5 714.7/ 714.7/ 714.7/ 714.7/ 715.6/ 718.6/ 719.2
JDNM5 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 5.4/ 6.6/ 9.1/ 9.8
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B MSR 1028 Z DH12 /DC2410231757/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
: Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
: Valid Period: 10/28/2024 - 01/26/2025
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:Minnesota River
MVOM5 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
GTEM5 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4/ 0.4
:Redwood River
MSHM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
RWDM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
:Minnesota River
MTNM5 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6
NULM5 0.9/ 0.8/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0
NWUM5 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1
:Minnesota River
MNKM5 1.5/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1
HENM5 1.6/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1/ 1.1
JDNM5 1.7/ 1.4/ 1.3/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2/ 1.2
.END
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
$$