Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS63 KMSR 271321
ESGMIN

MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2            17.0   22.0   24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5            39.0   40.0   42.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5           971.5  973.0  975.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MVOM5            14.0   16.0   17.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GTEM5           885.0  889.0  892.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5            14.0   15.0   16.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RWDM5             6.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MTNM5            21.0   23.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NULM5           800.0  804.0  806.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5            22.0   27.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NWUM5            11.0   13.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MNKM5            22.0   25.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENM5           732.0  736.0  739.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JDNM5            25.0   28.0   34.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1202 Z DH12 /DC2411271321/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.1/   10.1/   10.4/   11.1/   11.6/   12.1/   12.9
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5      32.3/   32.3/   32.3/   32.3/   32.3/   32.5/   32.6
:Minnesota River
BSLM5     967.3/  967.3/  967.3/  967.3/  967.3/  967.3/  967.3
MVOM5       4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8/    5.7/    7.6/    9.2
GTEM5     880.7/  880.7/  880.7/  880.7/  881.0/  881.7/  882.2
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.7/    8.3/    8.6/    8.8
RWDM5       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.2/    2.8/    3.0/    3.1
:Minnesota River
MTNM5      10.5/   10.5/   10.5/   10.7/   12.6/   14.5/   15.3
NULM5     787.6/  787.6/  787.6/  787.6/  788.6/  790.0/  790.7
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5      13.1/   13.1/   13.4/   14.1/   14.8/   15.6/   15.8
NWUM5       4.0/    4.0/    4.2/    4.9/    5.6/    6.2/    6.5
:Minnesota River
MNKM5       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.3/    8.5/    9.5/   10.4
HENM5     716.2/  716.2/  716.2/  716.6/  719.8/  722.1/  723.2
JDNM5       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.8/   11.2/   14.3/   15.5
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1202 Z DH12 /DC2411271321/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH
.B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
:West Branch Lac Qui Parle River
DAWM5       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.3/    0.3
GTEM5       0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4
:Redwood River
MSHM5       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
RWDM5       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
:Minnesota River
MTNM5       0.8/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6/    0.5/    0.5
NULM5       0.9/    0.9/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
:Cottonwood River
SPFM5       0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0/    0.0
NWUM5       0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1
:Minnesota River
MNKM5       1.5/    1.4/    1.3/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0
HENM5       1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0
JDNM5       1.8/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$