836
FNUS72 KMHX 161351
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Black Swamp Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
951 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
Southwest winds 5-10 kt today, turning southerly with an associated
seabreeze late this afternoon increasing to around 10 kt. Very hot
and humid today with min RHs only around 50%. Dry weather for all
daytime hours, but risk of showers and thunderstorms begin to tick up
by nightfall.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 33350 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 40.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.77 to 29.86 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  30  42  44  46  49  51  51  49  48  51  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  69  73  78  81  84  87  89  90  91  90  89
RH..............90  93  84  74  67  63  57  54  52  50  54  56
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   5   4   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.0 2.2
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  8
LVORI...........6   6   4   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............4   8   8   12  20  24  31  38  40  40  39  22
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   5   9   15  18  24  29  33  33  32  17
Sfc pres (in)...981 984 985 986 985 984 984 983 982 980 978 977

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy then
                    becoming mostly cloudy then becoming partly
                    cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph increasing to 12 to 15
                    mph in the late evening and overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 4600 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 7.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.75 to 29.80 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  50  57  65  51  50  57  52  52  54  53  53
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH
Temp............87  83  80  78  78  77  77  76  76  75  75  75
RH..............59  70  74  76  74  76  76  79  79  84  84  84
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.9   9   9       9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  13  15  15  15  13  12  13  14  12
LVORI...........2   3   3   4   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI.............15  7   7   8   10  10  10  8   8   8   9   8
Vrate mph-ft/1K.12  7   5   6   7   7   7   6   5   6   7   5
Sfc pres (in)...977 978 979 980 980 980 979 978 977 976 976 975

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph increasing to 22 to 23 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 112354 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 94.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.65 to 29.79 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........55     60     69     69     59     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............75     79     84     88     90     91
RH..............84     72     59     52     49     47
20 ft wind......SW 5   SW 7   SW 8   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.9      9      14     14     18     18
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1100   2300   3100   4600   4800
Transport wind..SW 13  W 16   W 20   W 17   W 18   W 22
LVORI...........4      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............8      23     53     56     73     91
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6      18     45     53     84     107
Sfc pres (in)...29.75  29.77  29.79  29.77  29.71  29.66

$$
Forecaster...Simms
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514090.0/MHX
.DELDT 05/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL daniel.belanger@usda.gov,david.l.nelson@usda.gov