543
FNUS72 KMHX 090834
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Pea Island 813...USFWS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
434 AM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on March 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
High pressure will build in from the north and west today.
As this occurs, ongoing 10-15 mph NE`rly winds this morning
will become light and variable (5mph of less) by midday
(12PM-2PM), with winds then becoming S-SW`rly at 5-10 mph this
evening (4PM-6PM) across the burn site as the high pressure system
pushes offshore. It is expected to remain dry with partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

While mixing heights do look to get to about 2.5-3.0 kft today,
with weak transport winds expected from about 11AM onwards,
vent rates around the burn site will quickly decrease this morning from
about 34,000 mph-ft to less than 15,000 mph-ft by about 12PM-2PM
with vent rates not expected to improve through the rest of the day.
A deepening low pressure system then approaches from the south and west
bringing unsettled weather to the Outer Banks on Monday with
increasing E`rly winds and rain chances through the day
and into Mon night. High pressure then builds in from the west on
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing drier conditions to ENC before a mostly
dry frontal passage late week.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 15 mph becoming light and
                    variable around 5 mph late morning, then
                    shifting to the south 5 to 10 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 15 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 5 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the southwest 5 to 10 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 38640 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 2.
ADI.................Max 37.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........30.07 to 30.16 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........28  34  47  54  55  58  59  48  27  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............43  43  45  46  48  49  50  51  51  51
RH..............62  60  53  51  47  46  44  42  44  46
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..13  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.18  15  15  12  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.15  15  12  9   8   7   5   5   5   6
LVORI...........1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............37  34  34  27  21  18  11  9   9   11
Vrate mph-ft/1K.39  37  30  23  21  18  12  10  9   12
Sfc pres (in)...009 012 014 016 015 013 011 010 008 007

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 6669 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Min 4.
Stability class.....4.
Sfc pressure........30.01 to 30.07 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........19  23  25  24  24  24  28  37  41  46  55  60
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  51  51  50  50  50  49  49  49  49  49  49
RH..............50  52  56  61  63  63  68  68  68  68  68  71
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.9       12  9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   9   9   9   8   9   9   8   8   8   7   7
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............13  6   6   6   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
Vrate mph-ft/1K.14  12  13  12  10  11  10  8   9   8   7   7
Sfc pres (in)...007 007 007 006 005 005 005 005 005 004 002 001

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning. Chance of rain showers
                    late in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east
                    10 to 20 mph early in the morning.
Mixing Height.......Max 1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 5 mph shifting to the east 5 to 15
                    mph early in the morning, then increasing to 15
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 24034 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 30.
Stability class.....3.
Sfc pressure........29.80 to 30.00 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........61     74     76     78     81     83
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............48     47     51     54     54     55
RH..............74     76     74     69     71     74
20 ft wind......S 7    E 8    E 9    E 11   E 12   E 16
20 ft wind gust.9      9      14     14     14     18
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   800    1200   1400   1200   1100
Transport wind..S 6    E 5    E 8    SE 14  E 18   E 21
LVORI...........3      4      3      3      3      3
ADI.............5      4      13     22     26     29
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6      3      10     20     22     24
Sfc pres (in)...30.00  29.99  29.98  29.96  29.91  29.83

$$
Forecaster...Fucheck
Requested by...Caleb Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2505410.0/MHX
.DELDT 03/09/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL caleb_jones@fws.gov