169
FNUS72 KMHX 161125
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Roosevelt North...USMC
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
625 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EST on January 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION....
Weak Arctic front tracks across ENC this evening with high
pressure building over the Carolinas tonight and then quickly
shifting offshore by Friday night. Another cold front will
eventually move through the area Saturday into Sunday.
Min RH`s today and tomorrow remain in the low to mid 30s around
the prescribed burn area, though with winds remaining
below 25 mph through the day today not expecting significant fire
weather concerns.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Mixing Height.......Max 4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 87975 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 59.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.93 to 30.23 inHg.

TIME (EST)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   3   2   1   2   3   4   11  24  31  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............21  27  33  39  43  47  49  51  51  50  49
RH..............74  65  51  42  39  37  37  37  39  42  46
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   8   10  11  12  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.    9   9   9   14  14  14  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.2 4.0 4.3 2.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  W
Transp wind spd.7   7   7   9   14  15  17  20  21  18  13
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.............5   5   5   14  34  35  43  54  59  41  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3   3   5   11  28  42  56  78  88  48  6
Sfc pres (in)...023 022 019 016 012 007 002 999 996 994 993

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph shifting to the northwest 10 to 15 mph
                    after 3 am.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph shifting to the northwest 12
                    to 16 mph overnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 5635 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 9.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.94 to 30.07 inHg.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........16  11  9   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  45  43  42  41  41  40  40  39  37  36  35
RH..............49  55  60  65  67  67  67  67  70  72  75  75
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  10  11  12  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.14  14  18  18  23  23  23  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  14  14  15  17  16  16  16  16  16  14  14
LVORI...........2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.............11  9   12  13  15  14  14  14  14  14  12  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.6   6   6   7   8   7   7   7   8   8   7   7
Sfc pres (in)...994 994 994 995 996 996 998 999 001 002 004 007

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 15 mph in the morning and
                    early afternoon becoming light, then becoming
                    east around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......Max 3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 15 mph decreasing to around 5 mph
                    early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
                    southeast around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 29899 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 36.
Stability class.....3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.10 to 30.19 inHg.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  33  36  38  40  43  45  46  47  47  47  45
RH..............78  78  72  73  67  60  53  51  49  49  51  58
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   NE  E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..12  12  11  10  9   8   6   5   3   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.18  18  18  14  14  9   9       5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  14  12  15  14  12  9   7   6   5   5   5
LVORI...........4   4   3   3   3   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............15  15  15  24  36  34  28  23  20  14  12  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.7   8   12  21  30  30  26  22  16  12  10  8
Sfc pres (in)...010 012 015 017 019 018 016 015 014 014 014 014

$$
Forecaster...Fucheck
Requested by...Steven J Shephard
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500765.0/MHX
.DELDT 01/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steven.shephard@usmc.mil