542
FXUS62 KMHX 032335
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
735 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored offshore through the end of the
week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front
then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday... Few changes made to the current
forecast. Upper ridging remains centered off the Southeast
coast while extending west across most of the eastern US and
will continue through into the weekend. Meanwhile, strong
surface high pressure centered over the Atlantic will continue
producing a warm and moist southerly flow across the region.
While the mid levels remain dry, there is enough low-level
moisture to support isolated, shallow, nocturnal showers
overnight but coverage if any will be minuscule and precip
amounts light. There will be enough of a gradient overnight to
support low level mixing which will preclude fog. Guidance is
starting to pick up the potential for widespread low clouds
developing after midnight though. Temps have fallen into the
upper 70s inland (low 70s beaches). The south-southwesterly
flow will continue to bring mild temps across the area with lows
expected in the mid 60s, which is about 15-20 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on
Friday

As of 330 PM Thursday...Deep southerly flow will continue
across the area on Fri. Initially should be extensive low clouds
but these are expected to erode by afternoon allowing for
enough insolation to allow highs to inland to reach into the mid
to upper 80s. A few locations may even hit 90 which will be
close records. A back door cold front will drift south towards
the Albemarle Sound by Fri evening then is forecast to stall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures possible over the
weekend

Saturday...Upper level pattern amplifies Sat as a positively
tilted trough digs into the Western CONUS while upper ridging
continues to build across the Eastern CONUS. Upper trough does
gradually push E`wards each day getting into the Plains by Sat
night. At the mid levels and surface, high pressure ridging will
remain centered offshore in the Sargasso Sea allowing for dry
weather and steady SW`rly flow. A cold front will also stall
just to the north of the CWA near the NC/VA border Fri night,
but this stalling front will quickly lift to the north as a warm
front without much fanfare on Sat. SW`rly flow will advect a
warm and moist airmass to ENC this weekend which brings the
first challenge to the forecast. Continued mid and upper level
moisture advection should bring fairly widespread cloud cover to
ENC Sat morning with skies clearing as we go through the
afternoon each day. Depending on how quickly the cloudcover
dissipates will determine how warm we get each day, but either
way, with ongoing WAA, still expecting temps to remain well
above normal Sat. ECWMF EFI values remain close to the 90th
percentile on Sat, while NAFES surface and 850 mb temps remain
around 1-2 SD above normal. This should allow highs to at the
very least get to the mid to upper 80s inland (with temps even
approaching the low 90s inland if we see less cloudcover) while
the beaches and OBX see highs into upper 70s to low 80s which will
be near record to record setting for early April. Not to be
outdone, lows will remain elevated as well only getting down
into the 60s each night (see "Climate Section" for more
information).

Sunday and Monday... Upper level trough broadens as it continues to
push E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the mid
levels, shortwave rounding the base of this trough also pushes
E`wards across the Deep South and nears the coast on Mon while
a second potent shortwave dives SE`wards across the Great Lakes
on Mon as upper level ridging finally begins to push E`wards Sun
into Mon further out into the Atlantic. At the surface, a cold
front will gradually push E`wards across the Carolinas on Sun
eventually pushing offshore on Mon. This front is expected to
bring widespread cloudcover, rain, and even some thunderstorms
to ENC. Guidance continues to hint at Mon being the primary day
for precip so kept precip trends the same with SChc to Chc
PoP`s Sun night and Chc to likely PoP`s across the area on Mon.
Will likely need to refine the PoP forecast for Mon as we get a
little closer as some guidance suggests there may be multiple
rounds of showers across the area with some dry time in between.
Either way, most Global and Ensemble guidance suggests a rather
beneficial rain on Mon with QPF amounts around 1-2 locally 3+
inches possible with this front. Last of the well above normal
temps occurs on Sun with near record highs once again possible
before cloud cover and rain on Mon brings temps back down to
normal.

Tuesday through midweek...Broad upper troughing remains over the
Eastern Seaboard from Tue into midweek swinging the proverbial
temperature pendulum the complete opposite way with temps forecast
to be well below normal Tue and Wed with record low temps possible
Tue night which would bring frost concerns to the Coastal Plain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 730 PM Thursday..Expect VFR conditions to persist for
another few hours before widespread MVFR ceilings develop after
midnight and persist for much of Friday morning before
dissipating around noon. Model guidance varies on the potential
for ceilings to drop to IFR tonight, with higher IFR
probabilities for coastal terminals (OAJ/EWN) compared to the
inland terminals (PGV/ISO). For now, have opted to add a SCT007
group to EWN/OAJ to indicate the potential for IFR ceilings for
a few hours overnight. The atmosphere will remain mixed enough
overnight to preclude fog. Winds will remain south-southwesterly
tonight at 5-10 kts before again building tomorrow to around
10-15 knots with gusts to 20 kt.


LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...Primarily VFR conditions expected
through much of Sun as high pressure remains centered offshore
and a steady SW`rly breeze will be in place across ENC. Will
note a cold front will begin to approach on Sun allowing for
SW`rly winds to increase with gusts up towards 20-25 kts at
times Sun afternoon. Otherwise as we get into Sun night and Mon,
sub-VFR conditions become increasingly likely as the
aforementioned cold front nears the area and slowly tracks
across ENC bringing widespread rain and low clouds to the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...High pressure will remain centered off
the coast while extending west into the waters through Fri
producing S-SSW winds around 10-20 kt with occasional gusts to
25 kt through the period with seas around 3-5 ft. Cannot rule
out a brief period of seas to 6 ft across the outer portions of
the coastal waters near the Gulf Stream, but don`t expect
sufficient coverage/duration to warrant a Small Craft Advisory
at this time.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...High pressure will remain centered
offshore with a stalling front noted to the north on Fri with
this stalled front then lifting N`wards on Sat as a warm front.
This will keep ongoing 10-15 kt SW`rly winds and 2-4 ft seas in
place across our waters into Sat afternoon. As we get into Sat
evening and on Sun a cold front will begin approaching from the
west, tightening the pressure gradient and allowing SW`rly winds
to increase closer to 20-25 kts with gusts up towards 25-30 kts
Sat night with these elevated winds persisting through Sun.
This will once again bring SCA`s to our waters this weekend.
Seas along our coastal waters will respond in kind increasing to
3-5 ft Sat night and then 4-7 ft by Sun. Aforementioned cold
front then slowly pushes offshore on Mon bringing widespread
shower and even some thunderstorm activity to our waters and
allowing SW`rly winds to ease slightly down to 15-20 kts with
gusts up towards 25 kts across just about all of the waters
outside of the inland rivers. Seas remain around 4-7 ft on Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...ZC/RCF
MARINE...JME/SK/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX