276
FXUS62 KMHX 081208
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
708 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will build into the area through the end of
the work week bringing cold and dry conditions across eastern NC.
A low pressure system will impact the area Friday night into
Saturday that may bring wintry precipitation across portions of
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0700 Wednesday...Winds aloft become more zonal today with
CAA weakening but surface winds will still be out of the
northwest. Continued shortwave activity around the upper trough
could bring in some clouds, particularly to the northeastern
portion of the forecast area but for the most part, plenty of
sun will prevail even if temperatures don`t make it much higher
than 40 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Wednesday...Overnight, SFC high pressure makes its
closest approach to the FA as it slides NEward. Upper level
zonal jet strengthens as digging trough aloft approaches,
quickly clearing the mid/upper levels clouds from this
evening/first half of the night. Strong cooling tonight will
lead to MinTs in the low 20s most, maybe some teens in typical
cold spots. These Ts and light winds will lead to AppTs AoB
15deg, which is our threshold for issuing a Cold Weather
Advisory, so have issued two separate products for mainland
zones and OBX zones and their respective timings.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Wednesday..

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold and dry through Thursday

- 10-15 degree wind chills early Thursday and Friday morning

- Increasing chances for rain and winter precipitation Friday
evening and Saturday

Thursday...Don`t let the abundant sunshine fool you. With the Arctic
airmass still the dominant feature at play, highs will struggle to
surpass the upper-30s on Thursday. Lows across ENC will likely drop
below freezing with the coastal plain dipping to the upper-teens to
mid-20s.

Friday-Saturday...A Miller Type A pattern will develop late week and
bring a swath of rain and winter precip to ENC Friday night and
Saturday. The start time of precip has trended a bit earlier, so
slight chance to low end chance PoPs for a rain/snow mix have been
added for far southwestern zones late Friday afternoon/early
evening. PoPs will continue to increase through the evening and peak
between midnight and sunrise Saturday. Chances for wintry precip
will be greatest across the coastal plain and least along the coast.
Overnight, snow is likely west of Highway 17 with a narrow area of
freezing rain possible along far western Duplin, Lenoir, Greene,
Pitt, and Martin Counties. East of Highway 17 and away from the
immediate coast will likely be the transition zone for a rain/snow
mix with the OBX likely seeing just rain. Early Saturday morning, a
rain/snow mix across the CWA will likely become the dominant PTYPE,
although a threat for freezing rain along the aforementioned far
western zones will persist. Rain rates across the CWA will be
greatest during this time with some moderate showers possible,
especially for areas along the Crystal Coast and offshore. Chances
for wintry precip will decrease as the sun comes up but NBM PTYPE
probs carry a 15-30% chance of snow for areas west of the Pamlico
Sound through Saturday morning.

**QPFs at this time**

Rain: 0.5-1" for the whole CWA

Snow: 1-1.5" for the northwestern sections of Greene, Pitt, and
Martin Counties, 0.5" or less between Highway 17 and the Pamlico
Sound

Ice: ~0.1" along western Duplin, Lenoir, Greene, Pitt, and Martin
Counties

Sunday-Tuesday...Cool and dry conditions return with highs in the
40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0630 Wednesday...VFR flight cats with mostly SKC and
light NWerly winds expected through the period. Uptick in mid
and upper levels clouds late today, clearing during the
overnight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

Breezy VFR conditions are expected through the day Friday. Sub-VFR
conditions become more probable starting Friday night when a strong
low pressure system will move up the coast and bring increased
chances for rain and a winter mix. Conditions will improve later
Saturday as the low moves away from the coast and remain
predominantly VFR through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0700 Wednesday...NWerly winds 10-15kt inland, 15-20kt
offshore. Seas are around 5-8 ft across the northern and
central waters and 3-5 ft across the southern waters. This
improving trend is expected to hold through this morning. Seas
north of Ocracoke Inlet, relax from 5-7 ft to 2-5 ft. South of
Ocracoke Inlet, about 2-4 ft. NW winds will increase to 15-25 kt
with 25-30 kt gusts around sunset tonight, which will start the
next round of SCAs.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Wednesday...

Multiple rounds of unfavorable marine conditions are expected
through the period. Thursday will start with NW winds at 20-30 kt
with a few gusts to 34 kt, especially for the waters north of
ocracoke Inlet. A Gale Watch has been issued for these zones. Waves
will build to 4-8 ft for these waters as well while the southern
waters should remain below 6 ft.

Conditions will improve on Friday with NW winds falling to 10-15 kt
by the end of the day and seas falling below 6 ft for all zones.
This improvement will be short-lived because a strong low pressure
system will bring another round of strong winds and waves over the
weekend. Winds will be variable Friday night through Saturday and
will peak Saturday evening when they become NWerly at 20-25 kt with
gusts to 25-30 kt (near gales close to the Gulf Stream. Seas will
respond by building through the day Saturday and peaking in the
evening. South of Cape Hatteras, seas are forecast to reach 6-9 ft
with waters to the north reaching 4-8 ft. Conditions will improve on
Sunday with NW winds dropping to ~10 kt with 3-4 ft seas.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for
     NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
     Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 2 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Friday
     for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...CEB/OJC