125
FXUS62 KMHX 210800
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin is forecast to pass offshore through this evening
with significant coastal impacts expected, especially along the
Outer Banks. High pressure builds in through early in the
weekend. A weak coastal low may bring light rain on Sunday, with
high pressure reestablishing itself next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2:45 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Duck to Beaufort
Inlet

- Storm Surge Warning remains in effect from Duck to Cape Lookout

- Low stratus will persist across the coastal plain through early
Thursday morning

- Hurricane Erin`s outer rainbands continue to brush the coast

Hurricane Erin is about 300 miles east of MHX and moving north
around 14 mph. Scattered showers are ongoing across the Outer Banks
as Erin`s outer rainbands continue to brush our coast. Given ample
tropical moisture, moderate rainfall is possible, but the heaviest
showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain offshore. Winds
will back from NE to NNW overnight but continue to gust to 15-25 mph
over the coastal plain and 25-50 mph along the coast (highest along
the Outer Banks).

Also of note is the increasing coverage of low stratus across the
coastal plain. Similarly to the past few nights, these low clouds
are expected to linger a couple of hours past sunrise.

As Hurricane Erin pulls away from our coast today, a surface cold
front will push across the CWA from the NW. This boundary isn`t
expected to provide much forcing for precip, but will bring a more
notable change in temps and dewpoints on Friday. Across the coastal
plain, winds will gust to 20-25 mph. Along the Outer Banks, winds
will gust to tropical storm force at 35-50 mph. Highs will max out
in the mid- to upper-80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible, mainly east of Highway 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:20 AM Thursday...PoPs will diminish after sunset, keeping
the majority of the area dry overnight save for a few isolated
showers along the Outer Banks early in the period. The
aforementioned cold front should be through the CWA by this evening,
which will usher in a cooler and drier airmass. Lows will reach the
mid-60s across the coastal plain and low-70s along the Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Friday through Saturday...Lingering coastal impacts will cont
into Fri as large back swell from departing Erin keeps high
waves on the OBX. Sensible weather impacts improve as high
builds in. Mainly dry wx and seasonably warm temps expected as
the high remains through the end of the week.

Sunday...Weak low pres may zip up the Southeastern Seaboard the
end of the weekend, bringing rain to parts of ENC. Attm, most
guidance hugs the coast, so pops were raised in this area to
40-60%. How far west the precip gets is in question, and
therefore pops remain in the 20-40% range.

Monday through Wednesday...High pres reestabilishes itself by
early next week, and therefore pops no higher than 10-20% are
forecast. Seasonbly mild temps in the fcst with highs in the 80s
and lows 65-70 forecast, which is very near climo for the last
week of August.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3:25 AM Thursday...Another night of widespread low
stratus is ongoing and, like yesterday, it`s expected to last
into late morning/early afternoon. CIGs are likely to bottom out
at IFR between 10-13Z but be slow to recover to MVFR after
sunrise. Scattered showers are possible through tomorrow with
best chances being for eastern terminals. Hurricane Erin will
keep NNW winds gusting to 20-25 kt through the day.

LONG TERM /Fri through Mon/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Mainly dry weather late week as high pres
builds in. A weak coastal low may bring some rain on Sunday,
with high pres building back in to start the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3:30 AM Thursday...Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect
for all waters except the Neuse, Bay, Pamlico, and Pungo Rivers
where SCAs remain.

Hurricane Erin will make its closest pass to our coast today before
pulling away to the northeast. Winds will peak early this
morning/today at 20-40 kt with gusts to 35-50 kt. Seas will also
peak at 15-25 ft at 14-16 seconds. Winds will gradually start to
weaken tonight, but very strong waves will persist across the
coastal waters through the period. SCAs for the inland rivers are
scheduled to drop at 00z tonight.

LONG TERM /Fri through Mon/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Winds cont to diminish, with nerly flow in the
5-15 kt range, but SCA seas cont into the weekend as backswell
from departing Erin cont to propagate into the coastal waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Thu...

Key Messages:

- Storm Surge Warnings, Coastal Flood Warnings, Coastal Flood
  Advisories and High Surf Advisories remain in effect through
  as late as Friday night. Last night`s high tide has led to
  substantial overwash on NC-12 on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island
  as well as substantial wave run-up to dune structures on the
  Crystal Coast. Worst conditions are expected on the Outer
  Banks with today`s high tide cycles.

- Life threatening rip currents are expected all week and into
  the weekend.

Strong long period swell associated with distant but large and
powerful Hurricane Erin will occur simultaneously with higher
astronomical tides, exacerbating coastal flooding threats.
Significant coastal flooding/ocean overwash/erosion is expected
especially around the high tide cycles today.

Moderate to major inundation will mainly be focused along the
oceanside of the Outer Banks.

Additionally, due to the expected large wind field with Erin
and the increase in north to northeast winds on Pamlico Sound,
minor to locally moderate soundside flooding (1 to 3 ft water
rises) on lower Pamlico Sound and it`s adjacent tributaries are
also possible, and have extended the coastal flood warning for
Carteret County through this evening`s high tide cycle, with
highest water levels in Downeast Carteret County. Conditions
will improve into Fri though minor problems may linger, and some
coastal flood products may need to be extended for Downeast
Carteret in later fcst updates.

Minor flooding (1 to 2 ft water level rises) is also possible
on the soundside for Hatteras and Ocracoke islands today due to
the north winds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ047-196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ094-194.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ195-196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ199.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ136-
     137.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX