063
FXUS62 KMHX 061334
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
934 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored offshore through the weekend.
The next cold front then impacts the region early next week.
High pressure builds in from the west for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 935 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near Record High Temperatures possible today

Low stratus clouds this morning should gradually mix out but a
strong inversion around 925 MB may make this a slower process
especially toward the coast. Eventually by afternoon increasing
sunshine and a well mixed boundary layer will push temps inland
well into the 80s and should be a few degrees higher than
Saturday with such a mild start.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...A cold front will approach from the west
with increasing clouds and rain chances especially after
midnight. Most at risk for some rain will be our far inland
counties, with a more marked eastward progression of the rain
shield not expected until shortly after sunrise Monday. Lows
will again be mild with a breeze and clouds, and be either side
of 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 430 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected on Monday

 - Cold temps Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will bring
   widespread frost potential

Monday through Tuesday...A longwave upper trough resides across
the central CONUS with deep SWly flow transporting rich gulf
moisture across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic while a robust
northern stream shortwave will be digging into the Great Lakes
into the northern Mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. A sfc cold
front will be pushing across the southern Appalachians Monday
morning with prefrontal showers across the Piedmont working into
ENC through the morning hours.

Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible Monday afternoon and
evening across the area coinciding with favorable jet dynamics
with the area in the right entrance region of the upper jet
along with high PW values peaking around 1.75", which SPC
climatology shows near peak values for this time of year. WPC
continues a marginal ERO risk for the area on Monday and storm
total rainfall amounts around 1-2" expected with this system.

SPC also has a marginal severe thunderstorm threat with the
area in a high shear/low CAPE regime. Instability is the
limiting factor for severe and there is some uncertainty with
how unstable we become. The more unstable guidance shows MUCAPE
around 1250 J/Kg but many models only indicating MUCAPE peaking
around 500 J/Kg. With a strong 40-50 kt LLJ in place, any
stronger storms that develop will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts.

The cold front will slowly push through the area Monday evening
through the early morning hours Tuesday with showers tapering
off Tuesday morning. Most showers should be offshore by daybreak
Tuesday with skies clearing and Arctic high pressure beginning
to build in from the NW.

Well above normal temps continue Monday ahead of the front with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest across southern
sections. Much cooler behind the front with lows Tuesday morning
in the mid 40s to lower 50s, which is actually near normal.
Highs Tuesday will be several degrees below normal in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Arctic high pressure builds
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, then slides
offshore Thursday. Mainly clear skies will prevail with much
below normal temps. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 30s
inland from the coast bringing a threat of frost for many areas.
Coastal sections will see lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s.
Wednesday will see temps in the mid 50s NE sections to mid 60s
SW. Wednesday night expected to be a few degrees warmer with
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland to mid 40s coast.
Could see patchy frost in sheltered areas. SE return flow on
Thursday with the high offshore will allow temps to warm to near
normal with Highs in the low to mid 70s inland and mid to upper
60s along the coast.

Friday and Saturday...A northern stream trough digs into the
eastern CONUS late in the week with the potential for a mid-
level cut-off low developing somewhere across the Mid-Atlantic.
Guidance is not in best agreement with the timing and strength
of the upper low but could see periods of showers on Friday and
possibly lingering into Saturday if slower solutions pan out.
Temps expected to be near normal on Friday and a few degrees
below normal on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 720 am Sunday...Widespread MVFR cigs across the terminals
now will lift to VFR between 14Z and 16Z, with high confidence
in VFR conditions by this afternoon. Main aviation concern after
the cigs mix out will be the wind, with southwest winds with
gusts over to around 25 KTS likely this afternoon into the first
part of tonight.

An approaching confidence late tonight will bring a return to
MVFR cigs after 06Z. Confidence only medium this far out.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 5 AM Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions expected Monday and
Monday night as a frontal system slowly pushes across rtes
bringing period of heavy rainfall and a chance for
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms could bring strong to severe wind
gusts. The front moves offshore early Tuesday with pred VFR
expected through Thursday as Arctic high pressure builds into
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 935 AM Sunday...Latest obs show SW winds 15-25 kt gusting
20-30 kt with seas 3-6 ft. Forecast remains on track with
strong southwest winds now, expected to increase throughout the
day. SCAs continue for the coastal waters, sounds and rivers.
With increasing winds today, seas will build to 4 to 7 feet.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 515 AM Sat...A frontal system will be approaching the
waters Monday with SCA conditions continuing across most of the
waters in SW flow around 15-25 kt and gusts to around 30 kt. The
front will push through the waters Monday night with winds
becoming Nly around 15-25 kt through Tuesday morning before
gradually diminishing Tuesday afternoon and night as Arctic high
pressure builds into the region. The high migrates offshore late
Wednesday and Thursday with NE winds around 10-15 kt veering to
Ely Wednesday night and SEly on Thursday. Seas will peak around
4-8 ft on Monday and gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday
with seas dropping below SCA criteria for all waters Tuesday
evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Sunday 04/06

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         90/2010  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       91/2010  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    83/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1929  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     87/2010  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...EH/CQD
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...EH/CQD/SK
CLIMATE...MHX