704
FXUS62 KMHX 131410
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low(s) will slowly pull away through Monday, continuing
to produce coastal hazards. High pressure begins building in
Tuesday and will anchor over the Eastern Seaboard into this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 1010 AM Mon...UPdated forecast to increase pops acrs srn
half of the FA and inc cloud cover regionwide. Area of
deformation light rain and drizzle has formed on lee side of sfc
low off the NC coast, and is gaining support aloft from upper
trough over the region. Have also added areas of drizzle to the
forecast for much of ENC, as a gloomy day is expected. At the
least, the overcast low clouds will make for cool condtions
today. Have lowered max T`s by several degrees due to the rain
and drizzle. All areas should remain down in the 60s all day.

Prev disc...As of 0230 Monday...Complex set up with double
barrel coastal lows and multiple fronts stretched over the area.
FA lies between the two lows with one observed to the N near
DelMarVa and the second meandering to the S just south of Cape
Fear. The Nern low will deepen while inching closer to the Mid-
Atlantic coast while the Sern low will drift Eward away from the
Carolina coast as ridging expands Eward from Texas, shunting
troughing aloft off the coast this evening. SChc to Chc PoPs
remain through the near term along the Crystal Coast and OBX S
of Hatt, transitioning to OBX N of Hatt this evening and
overnight. Some clearing late may allow Sun to make an
appearance, but Nerly winds slowly becoming NWerly will keep
things on cooler side. MaxTs right around 70, warmest in SWern
zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 0250 Monday...Ridging continues to build to the W of the
FA, expanding from Sern Texas toward central CONUS. The two SFC
lows begin to consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward
to merge with the Sern low while pushing Eward out to sea as
troughing aloft works over the coast. Select guidance shows
enough moisture pooling on the backside of the low to justify
carrying some low end SChc PoPs working from NW to SE in the
overnight/early morning hours. MinTs mid 50s most, around 60
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler this week with lows bottoming out
  in the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breeze conditions through this weekend. Next chance of
  rain possible by early next week

Mostly cloudy and cool conditions persist Tuesday with moisture
from the coastal low and nearby upper trough still over ENC. A
few widely scattered and light showers will be possible along
the coast Tuesday as well. High pressure then builds in for
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, with a cooler
airmass moving in for Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s)
thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-centers
over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then moves offshore
Sunday which will signal a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain may come late Sunday or Monday as a
quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the
Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Tues/...
As of 0130 Monday...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low to continue to impact ENC with low CIGs, vsbys and
   gusty winds through tonight

IFR flight cats in place with gusty NEerly winds as complex
coastal low systems continue to meander offshore. Light rain
becomes drizzle and mist through early morning hours. Drier
air finally begins to work into the area from the W, but low-
level moisture will likely hold strong into the afternoon. MVFR
is likely by the afternoon for all terminals, with a slight
chance (20%) of VFR for inner coastal plain terminals just
before 00z Tues. Conditions deteriorate again overnight with
subVFR CIGs likely.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 0300 Monday...Complex setup with FA sitting between two
coastal lows, one deepening near DelMarVA and one weakening to S
near SC. These two lows will consolidate while generally moving
away from the East Coast overnight. Stiff Nerly winds gradually
back to become more NWerly after sunset, easing to AoB 20kt
sustained after midnight.

Seas will continue on the high side in the range of 8-14 ft.
But, conditions begin improving as lows slowly pull away. Waters
inside of Gstream S of Hatt Inlet, 6-7ft, nearshore waters S of
Lookout sheltered from N-NWerly winds, 4-7ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through at least mid week with
   marginal Gale conditions possible at times

As low pressure pulls away from the region Tuesday, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, and will keep the pressure
gradient tight through most of the week. At times frequent Gale
Force gusts are expected, but exactly when, and for how long
these will occur remain in question, so no Gale Headlines are
anticipated as of now. Winds will be NNW/N at 20-30 kts, with
gusts 30-35+ kts, with a few lulls through Friday. Seas will
rebuild to 6-10 ft, but could be higher north of Cape Hatteras.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4 AM Mon...Though the coastal low has weakened, and will
pull away from the region early this week, minor to moderate
coastal flooding will continue due to persistent northerly
winds.

Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warnings continue through this
afternoon for Hatteras Island and the northern OBX where
significant impacts (2-4 ft AGL) are again possible during high
tide. Water levels and wave run up will be less extreme than
yesterday afternoon, but still have the potential to create
major issues along NC 12, and impact adjacent vulnerable
structures. Tomorrow afternoon`s high tide has the potential to
produce similar impacts, especially across Hatteras Island, and
a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued here for the threat
tomorrow. Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the
Coastal Flood Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an
Advisory, and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are
expected with this afternoon`s high tide. On the sound side,
strong and steady northerly flow will lead to minor flooding
impacts beginning later today from around Avon south to
Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least Wednesday.

Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories
have replaced warnings here, and an extended period of minor
flooding (1-2 ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is
anticipated due to strong northerly winds. Flooding may be
worsened around high tide early this week due to still higher
than normal astronomical tides, with minor flooding impacts
lasting through at least Wednesday.

Western Carteret, Coastal Onslow: One last "very high" high tide
will occur this afternoon, which will likely cause some isolated
areas of minor flooding (~1 ft AGL) along and adjacent to Bogue
Sound and the White Oak and New Rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194-
     196-204.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NCZ195-199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ203-
     205.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 3 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX