173
FXUS62 KMHX 060156
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
956 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area tonight and Sunday.
Another frontal passage on Monday will bring our next threat for
precip to Eastern North Carolina. Swell from distant Hurricane
Kirk will also bring marine and coastal impacts early next week.
Strong high pressure and noticeably cooler air building into
the area by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 955 PM Sat...No significant changes to the forecast on
this update as everything is tracking well.

Prev Disc...High pressure will continue to build over the area
through Sunday. Skies become mainly clear this evening combined
with light winds which will bring good radiational cooling
conditions with areas of fog and stratus developing late
tonight. Lows expected in the upper 50s inland to mid 60s along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...Dry forecast continues as weak high
pressure originating from the NW slides towards the coast.
Seasonable high temps with highs a degree or two either side of
80 for most inland locations and low to mid 70s immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0300 Saturday...High pressure late in weekend with a
wetter front early next week bringing the next best chance of
rain.

Sunday night...Around sunset, the SFC high will be sliding
offshore, which will veer winds to become more Serly overnight,
leading to a light WAA regime the second half of the overnight,
keeps MinTs for mild, around 60 inland, mid 60s beaches.

Early Next Week...Another front crosses through Monday, but
this front is associated with a deeper upper level trough, and
the column`s moisture, while not anomalously high, will be
greater than Saturday`s front. Although greatest upper level
support will be well to the N, there should be enough moisture
convergence along the front to justify carrying at least SChc
PoPs for this period to cover the possibility of very light rain
for FROPA as consistently indicated by the GFS and Euro, but
bizarrely omitted by the NBM. This update, have relegated any
thunder mention to offshore over the Gulfstream where limited
instability will be greatest.

Mid to late week...The airmass behind this stronger early week
front will be markedly cooler, mid70/low50 split, some sheltered
spots inland may even see MinTs in the 40s by Wednesday
morning. This strong ridging behind Monday`s front is forecast
to shunt any possible tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico
to cross over Florida and then push out to sea over the
Atlantic mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 715 PM Sat... No significant change in the forecast
thinking for tonight. Expect VFR conditions through at least 06Z
tonight. Afterwards still expecting a mix of low stratus and
patchy fog potentially dense at times especially west of Hwy 17
to develop. Currently have fog developing at ISO/PGV closer to
07-08Z and across EWN and OAJ closer to 10Z with a SCT deck of
IFR ceilings at all sites for now to account for low clouds.
Either way this dissipates around 13-14Z and VFR conditions are
forecast for the rest of SUnday while light winds persist
through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 0330 Saturday...VFR flight cats expected to prevail in
drier airmass outside of early morning fog potential. A stronger
front crosses ENC early next week which will be our next best
chance of rain and subVFR flight cats. VFR prevails in high
pressure behind the front midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...High pressure will continue over the
waters through Sunday. NE winds 15-20 kt will occur through this
evening then will diminish slightly overnight and Sunday to
10-15 kt. Seas will continue around 3-5 ft through Sunday with
up to 6 ft across the outer central waters and will maintain the
SCA between Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 0300 Saturday...NEerly 10-15kt through the weekend. SCA
seas for central waters likely continue through at least Monday.
Winds flip around to become SWerly late Sun ahead of the next
front to pass through area waters early next week, currently
forecasting SWerly 10-20kt S of the front, Nerly 10-15kt N of
it. Strong long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk begins
arriving late tonight, peaking early next week. Current forecast
has peak swell on the order of 7ft@16sec. In addition to this
swell, a potential tropical system is forecast to cross Florida
from the Gulf to reach the Atlantic middle of next week, this
system will also generate some shorter period, Serly swell on
top of the weakening longer period swell from Kirk.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 715 PM Saturday... As we get into early next week, long
period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will arrive along our
shores and bring an increased risk for elevated rip currents,
dangerous surf, and ocean overwash especially across the more
vulnerable areas and areas where the dunes have been compromised
along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday
     evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RCF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...JME/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX