415
FXUS62 KMHX 121433
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1033 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Departing low continues to push farther off the North Carolina
Coast with a ridge of high pressure building in from the south
and west. This ridge of high pressure remains in place into the
weekend bringing fair weather and warming temps to the area into
this weekend. The next potential frontal system impacts the
area late this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM Wednesday...Forecast remains largely on track.
Adjusted temps/dewpoints to reflect current trends as
temperatures have risen to the upper-50s/lower-60s by mid-
morning across ENC.

Previous Discussion:
Temps in the 40s early this morning with light and variable
winds and clear skies. Dry atmospheric profile precludes any
impactful fog from forming. Strong inversion at low levels will
rapidly break down this morning, and temps will quickly rise
after sunrise once the inversion breaks down as model soundings
show inversion temps of 65-70F this morning.

Ridging nosing in from the SW through the morning, keeping
skies clear and winds light. High pressure will remain over the
area through today with zonal flow aloft, resulting in clear
skies and southerly winds 5-15mph. Warm day in store, especially
inland, with the potential to reach the low 80s in spots.
Trended towards higher end of guidance for highs today by
heavily blending in MOS guidance with increasing thicknesses
and clear skies. Closer to the coast, the sea breeze will help
keep temps a bit cooler, but it will still be very pleasant.

As we get into the late afternoon/early evening hours, high
pressure builds to our north, and what looks to be a weak back
door cold front approaches NOBX, dropping temps a tad and
shifting winds in the evening for NOBX. This weak, surface based
boundary interacts with a strong baroclinic zone thanks to the
Labrador current and at the same time there is weak vorticity
advection at mid levels. This will result in weak cyclogenesis
(minimal upper level support being the limiting factor) and a
very weak, non-impactful sfc low may form up offshore of NOBX in
the evening. Some high clouds move through in the late
afternoon/early evening thanks to the weak upper level shortwave
and vorticity advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...Behind the back door cold front moving
through NOBX, we could see some low stratus and/or fog.
However, current indication is the bulk of the cloud cover will
remain just north of NOBX. This means the CWA will likely be
cloud free yet again tonight. Winds will be a tad bit stronger
as the col we are currently under moves offshore, and a stronger
pressure gradient moves overhead. This should keep us fog free
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Wed...Quiet weather expected across eastern NC for
the rest of the work week as high pressure becomes the dominant
weather driver for the rest of the work week. A weak backdoor
cold front briefly swings across the region on Friday with
little fanfare, but attention remains on a stronger cold front
expected to impact much of the eastern CONUS over the weekend,
reaching our area to start next week.

Fast moving shortwave moves across the area tomorrow. Moisture
will be limited by the time the wave reaches eastern NC and
expect only an increase in clouds, but would not be surprised to
see showers developing along the offshore coastal trough which
may threaten coastal locales. As weak low pressure develops off
the Virginia coast, it will push a backdoor front across the
region Friday morning. Overall moisture will be too lacking to
support any showers but guidance does hint at a bank of low
stratus filtering in behind the boundary, at least in the
morning hours. Latest guidance now shows the front fully
crossing the region and a temperature forecast more
representative of northeasterly flow - mid to upper 70s inland
but 50s and 60s along the Outer Banks.

Upper ridging slides offshore Saturday as a strong upper
trough and attendant frontal system pushes into the Tennessee
River Valley. Timing differences still remain on when this front
will cross eastern NC, although the most probable time remains
late Sunday into Monday. Ensemble members continue to be in
strong agreement in the presence of the front, although there is
a split among all ensemble members on whether the front is more
progressive and quickly moves offshore (favored by the
deterministic GFS) or hangs up along the coast and a secondary
low lifts along it, not clearing the area until late Monday (as
depicted by the ECMWF). Regardless of system evolution, the risk
remains for breezy conditions ahead of the front with the
attendant risk of coastal flooding and rough surf. Shear with
the system will be ample but instability will be dependent on
whether the front moves through during peak heating. At least
some severe risk in the form of damaging winds exists, and SPC
carries a Day 6 risk area.

Dry weather returns and prevails through mid week as high
pressure builds into the area from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12Z Thursday/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions expected through the
period. Today, we remain clear (except for some high clouds
moving through in the afternoon/evening), and winds become
10-20mph out of the south in the afternoon during peak heating.
Back door cold front moving through NOBX this afternoon and
evening could bring some elevated LLWS concerns (30kt from SW at
2kft) with it, particularly for MQI and FFA in the
evening/early night today. Another fog free night expected
tonight as light winds struggle to become calm.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Predominantly VFR conditions expected into
Saturday as high pressure remains in control. Increase in clouds
likely tomorrow and Friday ahead of an approaching mid-level
wave but will remain safely at VFR levels. Backdoor cold front
is forecast to push across all terminals Friday morning and may
bring with it a risk of IFR low stratus and fog in the AM hours.

Strong front approaches the terminals on Saturday and is
forecast to cross on Sunday. Gusty south winds likely on
Saturday, peaking on Sunday with gusts up to 30 kt at times.
Potentially strong storms will accompany the front late Sunday,
bringing a window of damaging wind gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...As high pressure builds in from the
west, expect winds to remain well below SCA criteria through
this morning with seas gradually lowering. Waves currently 3-5
ft, remaining that way through the day, as high pressure
continues to build into the area. There is a chance for a couple
hours of 25kt wind gusts for the gulf stream waters off
Hatteras Island tonight as pressure gradient tightens a bit.
Elected to not go with a SCA for this considering the marginal,
and short duration nature of the 25kt gusts.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 410 AM Wed...High moves offshore tomorrow bringing south
to southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt with seas around 2-4 ft.
Conditions begin to deteriorate Saturday as a powerful cold
front approaches the eastern seaboard. Small Craft conditions
are likely to begin by Saturday afternoon with a risk Gales by
Sunday morning, most likely over the offshore waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ/ZC
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ