430
FXUS62 KMHX 272217
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
617 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through the rest of the week with high pressure sliding
offshore tonight and remaining there through the much of the
weekend. The next cold front to move through the area is
expected on Monday. High pressure will build in behind this
system Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 615 PM Thursday...No changes to previous thinking. High
pressure will be moving offshore tonight as upper level trough
continues to pivot away from the coast. Inland traveling sea
breezes will begin to dissipate early this evening with the loss
of heating.

Overnight as high pressure moves offshore, southerly return
flow develops. While models suggest rising Tds and light winds
through the night, it may be difficult for the weak southerly
flow to break through the nocturnal inversion that sets up this
evening allowing winds to decouple late tonight. As a result,
Tds and Ts are fcst to be below all guidance through the night,
near 40 inland and mid to upper 40s for beaches. There is a low
(10%) chance for some patchy fog along and south of hwy 70
tonight with the lower temp trend, but given how unlikely it is,
have kept it out of the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...High pressure will shift offshore
Friday, with breezy southerly flow bringing more moist air.
Despite the increase in Tds, temps will also be warmer than the
past few days, and RHs will remain in the 20s and 30s inland.
This results in another day of fire weather concerns. See FIRE
WEATHER section for more information. Highs Friday near 80
inland, near 70 for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu...UPdate: No big changes. Fine-tuned pops for
Sunday through Monday night. Decreased pops during the day Sun,
as high pres will hold on a bit longer. Inc pops Sun night, as
plume of moisture with pre-frontal trough/warm front will
trigger showers and perhaps a couple storms overnight Sunday.
A dry break most of Monday, before main frontal forcing arrives
Mon night with showers and a few storms. Some storms may be
marginally severe, as later timing to the nighttime hours will
limit more robust severe threat.

Prev disc...As of 3 AM Thu...High pressure shifts offshore
Friday and strengthens over the western Atlantic this weekend
with above normal conditions developing. A slow moving but
strong cold front will into the region late Sunday, and cross
through Eastern NC either late Monday or early Tuesday. Cooler
high pressure builds back in behind this system later Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Friday through Sunday...High pressure will shift offshore
Friday, and then build over the western Atlantic this weekend,
with above normal conditions expected. Highs will reach the mid
to upper 70s Friday, and then reach the upper 70s to low 80s
Saturday and Sunday.

By Sunday a slow moving frontal system will move into the SE
US, and a weak upper level wave ahead of this system will bring
the chance scattered rain showers Sunday afternoon and night.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and potentially unsettled
conditions will continue ahead of a strong cold front Monday.
However, the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will
be with the frontal passage, which looks to be somewhere between
Monday evening and early Tuesday morning. Favorable conditions
for severe weather may develop as well, with strong wind shear
expected along the front and some lingering instability. Cooler
and drier conditions are expected behind the front Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure builds back in.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 615 PM Thursday. VFR flight cats through the period with
mostly SKC and light winds tonight. Then tomorrow high pressure
offshore results in Serly flow gusting up to 25 mph in the
afternoon. Some cloudiness increases from W to E in Friday
morning, but CIGs remain well above FL050.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Generally VFR conditions are expected through
this weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. Rain
chances will increase Sunday night through Monday as a slow
moving cold front moves into the region, and periods of sub-VFR
conditions are possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 615 PM Thursday...Fair boating conditions tonight into
early Fri as high pressure shifts offshore this evening, the
slowly drifts Eward Fri. Variable winds 10 kt or less tonight
become predominately Serly 10-15kt around sunrise Fri, with
seas 2-3ft through the overnight. Throughout Friday southerly
winds continue increasing to 10-20kt and waves become 2-4 ft as
a result. Friday evening into the long term, we could see gusts
up to 25kts for marine zones, with stronger gusts 25-30 kts
along the gulf stream. This has prompted the issuance of SCA
Friday night for the waters south of Oregon Inlet. See Long Term
section for more information.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Thu...As high pressure builds offshore SW flow will
increase Friday and through the weekend. Winds will approach
Small Craft criteria at times over the coastal waters and
possibly the Pamlico Sound, but confidence in this occuring is
not high enough to issue any advisory at this time.

By Monday, SW flow will increase further as the gradient
tightens even more ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds
will be SW at 20-30 kts with SCAs likely needed across most of
the coastal waters.

Seas will be mostly 3-5 ft through Sunday but could rise to 4-6
ft at times. By Monday, seas will increase to 5-7 ft in response
to stronger winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 320 PM Thursday...Abnormally dry conditions persist after
minimal rainfall from the last few FROPAs and persistently low
Tds have only dried already dry fuels. MinRHs have sunk into
the upper teens and low 20s today and Increased Fire Danger
(IFD) Statement remains in effect. Winds will remain relatively
light and variable through tonight while the high slides
offshore,

Serly flow Fri will become gusty 20-25mph, and while moisture
will increase, so will temps. This keeps RHs 25-35% inland,
resulting in another day of fire weather concerns. Saturday
continued moisture advection should help decrease fire weather
concerns, despite the dry fuels.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to 4 AM EDT Saturday for
     AMZ152-154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK/RJ
MARINE...JME/SGK/RJ
FIRE WEATHER...MHX