202
FXUS62 KMHX 061130
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
730 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Newly named Tropical Storm Chantal will make landfall early this
morning along the coast of the Carolinas bringing an increased
chance of showers and thunderstorms, including the risk of
locally heavy rainfall, through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Shower and thunderstorm threat continues through the day as
  Chantal nears the coast of the Carolinas.
- Torrential rainfall and flash flooding remain the main risk,
  but an isolated tornado remains possible especially through
  midday.

Dominant weather maker across the Carolinas remains Tropical
Storm Chantal, currently 75 miles east-northeast of Charleston
SC and continuing to drift northward at near 10 mph. The outer
rain bands of the cyclone continue to quickly race across
eastern NC, bringing periods of brief but torrential rainfall as
PWATs surge north of 2-2.25". CAMs show good continuity in the
forecast this morning, showing bands continuing to cross the FA
in waves as the cyclone eventually makes landfall in extreme
northeastern SC in the next hour or so.

The primary threat from this system remains heavy rain through
this morning and into the afternoon given forecast PWATs staying
above 2" through the period. With a modest increase in
instability this afternoon as highs climb into the upper 80s,
more organized convection are favored to be highly efficient
rainfall makers and produce a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall. HREF
LPMM guidance suggests in a worst case scenario, amounts in
excess of 4" are possible. Given the flash flood risk posed by
the rainfall, WPC has left all of the area in a Marginal Risk of
excessive rain.

In addition to rain, there is also a low tornado threat as is to
be expected on the northeastern quadrant of a TC. The most
favorable window for tornadic activity is now through around
midday as 0-1km SRH peaks at around 100-150 m2/s2. Locations
most favored are south of Highway 264 and west of Highway 17,
closest to the core of Chantal. All of the FA is at some risk,
however, as rainbands displaced from the TC have already shown a
history of brief spin-ups in the past couple of hours.

Rainfall activity becomes more scattered in the afternoon as TC
Chantal gradually loses tropical characteristics and a dry slot
noses into the FA. Where sun peaks through, highs are likely to
reach into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sun...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms inland, and scattered to numerous
  along and just offshore will continue to pose a risk of flash
  flooding threat overnight.
- Tornado risk wanes through the nighttime hours.

Core of Chantal will likely be lifting across central NC by
evening and through the overnight hours. Expanding dry slot
suggests a mostly dry evening across the coastal plain with only
isolated showers or stray thunderstorm, but with PWATs still
near 2" heavy rainfall remains a threat. Along the sounds and
coastal waters, nocturnal maximum of convection is likely to
rapidly blossom. Any robust activity that makes it onshore could
add another 1-2" (locally higher) onto daytime totals, enhancing
the flash flood risk. Tornado threat will be waning overnight
as core of highest SRH is displaced to our north and west.

Expansive cloud cover keeps lows a couple degrees warmer, in the
mid 70s to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible this
   week

TS Chantal will weaken across the NC coastal plain Monday and
slowly lift northward Monday night and Tuesday. Periods of heavy
rainfall will continue to be possible on Monday with PW values
around 2" or greater. Weak ridging builds across the area Monday
night and Tuesday but could see isolated to scattered showers
bringing locally heavy rainfall. A series of shortwave trough
will push across the region mid to late week continuing to bring
an unsettled weather across the region. With high PW values,
the greatest threat from the storms will be heavy rainfall.
At this time, instability and shear parameters do not look
overly impressive for severe storms to develop but could see a
few storms producing strong wind gusts. The warmest temps of the
long term look to be Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low
90s inland from the coast and heat index values around 100-105,
otherwise temps expected to be near or a couple of degrees
below climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 12z Mon/...
As of 730 AM Sun...TC Chantel moved inland a few hours ago, now
sitting over the NC/SC border. Mix of rain bands and scattered
showers continue to migrate from south to north across area
terminals. Cigs have bounced around considerably since 06z but
trend is more predominant MVFR across the south while VFR
prevails farther north. As rainbands traverse terminals, expect
temporary drops to IFR in torrential rainfall and occasionally
gusty cells gusting up to 30 kt at times.

As Chantal lifts north, expecting a dry slot to work in across
eastern NC bringing a likely lull in precip starting from 16z
onward, especially across the coastal plain with precip activity
becoming much more isolated. This should also help scatter out
cigs and bring a brief return to VFR for the afternoon. After
sunset, TAF forecast closely follows the LAMP showing cigs
descending back to MVFR as mixing layer lowers. However, given
LAMPs recent trends to bring sub-VFR cigs in too fast, this
portion of the forecast is of lower than usual confidence.

In addition to showers, winds will be gusting up to 20 kt
inland and 25 kt across OBX in association with the gradient
associated with the TC.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 325 AM Sun...TS Chantal will lift into the coastal plain
and gradually dissipate as it slowly lifts northward bringing
periods of showers and thunderstorms bringing sub-VFR flight
cats. A series of mid- level systems will push across the region
mid to late week continuing to bring the threat of showers and
storms with reduced flight cats. Late night and early morning
fog and stratus will also be possible most mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 4 PM Saturday...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 325 AM Sun...TC Chantal continues to drift northward
towards the coast of the Carolinas this morning with rainbands
quickly progressing across area waters from south to north.
Regional observations show east to southeasterly winds ranging
from 10-20 kt and seas ranging from 3-5 feet north of Cape
Lookout to 8-10 feet across the outer portions of Onslow Bay.

Dangerous boating conditions are expected to prevail through the
day as swell from the TC continues to bleed northward, impacting
primarily Onslow and Raleigh Bay but seas reaching up to 6 feet
north of Oregon Inlet. The wind field associated with Chantal
will expand through tonight as it decays inland, and this
required further expansion of existing SCAs into the Croatan and
Roanoke sounds, as well as the waters north of Oregon Inlet. All
SCAs, with the exception of the far northern waters, are in
effect for all of Sunday. Peak winds across area waters reach
to around 25 kt through today.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...High pressure remains centered over the
western Atlantic next week with a series of systems pushing
across the area. This will keep gradients somewhat pinched with
SW winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 2-4 ft currently
forecast during the long term period. However, some guidance is
suggesting low end SCA could occur at times during the middle of
next week, especially in gusts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 AM Sun...Bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms
already brought 2-3 inches of rainfall to portions of ENC
yesterday as the outer bands of TS Chantal tracked across the
region. Latest forecast calls for additional rounds of heavy
rain and thunderstorm activity through today as TS Chantal
makes it closest point of approach to ENC this morning into the
afternoon. Latest guidance suggests and additional 1-2 inches
of rain with localized amounts in excess of 3 inches will be
possible across portions of ENC this morning and afternoon, bringing
at least a low end flash flooding threat which would be
maximized in our more urban areas, as well as locales that saw
the heaviest rainfall yesterday. We will also have to watch
areas along the sounds and Atlantic overnight as offshore
precipitation increases in coverage. Although most activity will
remain over the ocean, any cells that drift onshore could also
dump an additional inch or two of rainfall.

Expect the rainfall and flooding threat to gradually lower on
Monday through the day as the last of the tropical moisture from
Chantal makes its way to the north and east away from ENC.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB
HYDROLOGY...MHX