430
FXUS62 KMHX 091921
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area over the next couple of days
as a coastal low begins to develop south of ENC. The coastal
low is then forecast to track north along the coast of the
Carolinas this weekend, potentially lingering around the region
through early next week. This will be an impactful system with
heavy rain, prolonged northeast winds, coastal flooding, and
dangerous marine conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

A cold front remains south of the area this afternoon with light
rain showing up over the southern portions of the Gulf Stream with
eastern North Carolina remaining dry and cool at this time.
Scattered clouds along and east of highway 17 are having little
effect on expected highs as temperatures climb into the lower 70s
with a couple more degrees expected by later this afternoon. Breezy
northeasterly winds will continue with gusts of around 20 kts inland
with 25-30 kts at times along the coast and the Outer Banks. While
some breeze is expected to continue this evening and overnight,
there should be some reduction after sunset with a general 10-15 kts
occasional gusts to 20 kts overnight. Expect low temperatures mainly
in the mid to upper 50s as the aforementioned wind and some remaining
cloud cover will hinder radiational cooling overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 2:45 PM Thursday...

Attention will turn to the south on Friday as a coastal low begins
to form off of the GA/SC coast and this feature will begin to push
the cold front back northward as a warm front. This will increase
cloud cover from south to north but much of the day should remain
dry. Slight chances for some rain along the immediate southern coast
will creep in by later in the day. Temperatures will be almost a
carbon copy of today with highs in the low to mid 70s in most
locations. Winds will continue to be gusty with northeast to east
winds at 10 gusting to 20 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Impactful coastal low to bring heavy rain, strong winds,
  coastal flooding, and treacherous surf and marine conditions
  through early next week

Friday...Surface high pressure centered over the northeast
CONUS will shift eastward as a low develops off the coast of FL.
Closer to home, a coastal trough will remain over the area,
supporting greater cloud cover and slight chance/chance PoPs
mainly south of Cape Hatteras. Gusty northeast winds will
persist with 20-25 mph gusts over the coastal plain and 25-30
mph gusts along the coast.

Saturday - Wednesday...The aforementioned low off the FL coast
will deepen as it lifts north towards the Carolinas on Saturday
and will then stall near ENC before lifting north early next
week. The strength, track, and speed of this low remains murky
with guidance still painting a broad range of solutions.
Regardless of the low`s ultimate track, confidence is high that
strong NE winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and treacherous
surf and marine conditions can be expected through early next
week.

Wind - Strong northeast winds will persist through early Sunday
morning before backing to the northwest as the coastal low moves
away from ENC. Winds will peak on Sunday with gusts to 25-35 mph
inland and 35-50 mph along the coast (highest along the Northern
Outer Banks). If the current forecast remains on track, a Wind
Advisory will likely be needed for at least the Outer Banks and
Downeast Carteret County.

Rain - Much needed rain will fall from Friday night to Monday, which
should make a dent in the moderate drought conditions across the
coastal plain and the abnormally dry conditions near the coast.
Current storm total QPF has 2-5" generally east of Highway 17 with
highest totals along the Outer Banks. West of Highway 17, storm
total QPF is in the range of 1-2". WPC has the higher QPF area
outlined in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (at least 15%
chance of flash flooding) on Saturday. A Flood Watch may eventually
be needed for roughly the eastern half of the CWA if the current QPF
remains on track. The Outer Banks will take the brunt of this system
with coastal flooding made worse by several inches of rain.

Coastal Flooding - See the Coastal Flood section below.

&&

.AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty N/NE winds (20-25kt) today

VFR conditions expected to remain in place through the TAF
period at all TAF sites. The main story will be the winds with
northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts this afternoon
and evening. Some of the gusts may subside after sunset however
winds will remain breezy with 10-15 kts overnight gusting to the
occasional 20 kts. No precipitation is expected. Fog or low stratus
is not expected after dark as higher clouds continue to move in from
the south. Ceilings will decrease throughout the day on Friday but
should remain at VFR levels.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

The main focus for aviation interests this weekend will be a
developing coastal low off the Southeast U.S. coastline.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement bringing the low north
towards ENC Friday into Saturday. Guidance then begins to differ
slightly from Sunday into Monday. Despite only slight
differences in the track of the low, the differences are notable
as there are significant differences in impacts for ENC. For
aviation interests, this is especially important as it leads to
significant differences with wind speeds and gusts. For now, the
most likely scenario suggests northerly wind gusts of 20-30kt
for most terminals, with 30kt+ gusts possible for runways across
the OBX. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the wind forecast,
and what the impact will be for terminals across the area. The
other aviation impact will be the potential for widespread sub-
VFR CIGs and reduced VIS in areas of moderate to heavy RA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Post frontal NE wind surge to continue to support elevated
   winds and seas through Friday

 - Gale Warning remains in effect south of Ocracoke Inlet

Gale Warning remains in effect this afternoon although winds
have yet to produce sustained gale force winds, there have been
a few gusts throughout the day. Will continue the Gale Warning
through 12z Friday with the expectation for low end gales near
the outer portions of those southern zones. Elsewhere, a
Small Craft Advisory will continue. Seas will build to 6- 10 ft
by tonight for most coastal waters. For the more sheltered
waters south of Cape Lookout, seas of 3-6 ft are expected.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Coastal low to impact the ENC waters with moderate to
   potentially significant marine hazards this weekend into
   early next week

The main focus for marine interests this weekend will be a
developing coastal low off the Southeast U.S. coastline.
Guidance is in fairly good agreement bringing the low north
towards ENC Friday into Saturday. Guidance then begins to differ
slightly from Sunday into Monday. Despite only slight
differences in the track of the low, the differences are notable
as there are significant differences in impacts for ENC waters.
Based on the latest available guidance, the most likely
scenario is an extended period of widespread 30-40kt northerly
winds. However, within the more broad wind field, there is the
potential for areas of enhanced winds up to storm force. Where,
and if, these enhanced winds develop will be highly dependent on
the track, and strength, of the coastal low, and where the
placement of various surface boundaries will be. Those
boundaries will help to support locally stronger pressure
gradients, and guidance differ on where those will reside.
Regardless, an extended period of hazardous conditions for
mariners continues to look likely over the weekend and into
early next week, especially from Saturday - Monday. In addition
to hazardous winds, seas of 10- 15ft at 10-12 seconds appears
possible, especially from Cape Lookout north (5-10 ft to the
south).

Please continue to check back regularly for updates on this
potential.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Thursday...King Tides and gusty NE winds behind a
cold front have brought mainly minor coastal flood impacts to
both oceanside and soundside communities today. Vulnerable areas
on Hatteras and Ocracoke Island may experience ocean overwash
during times of high tide where dune structures are weakened.
The winds subside a bit on Friday as high pressure builds into
the Mid Atlantic.

Confidence is high that low pressure will organize off the east
coast of FL and strengthen as it moves north northeastwards and
off the Carolina coast by Saturday. This will bring a rapid
increase in winds and high waves on Saturday, with moderate to
locally major coastal flooding impacts developing. There is a
possibility that the low may stall just off or over the NC
coast on Sunday, and therefore high uncertainty in wind
direction and speed for the second half of the weekend into
early next week. It`s possible that there will be a relative
lull in winds as the low moves right overhead, which further
complicates the potential impacts.

Coastal flood products remain in effect with a Coastal Flood
Advisory for the entire coast and counties that border the
southern Pamlico Sound into Monday. The exception being
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands which continues to have a Coastal
Flood Watch from late Saturday into Monday with the potential
for greater impacts from the coastal low.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for NCZ080-094-
     194>196-199-203.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     199-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ204-205.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-150-
     230-231.
     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for
     AMZ131-150-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ136.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RTE/RM
MARINE...RTE/RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX