858
FXUS62 KMHX 101031
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
531 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure remains over the area through this
afternoon and will bring cold and dry conditions across eastern
NC. A low pressure system will impact the area tonight into
Saturday and is expected to bring wintry precipitation across
portions of the area. Cool and dry weather to follow next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...Surface high pressure and upper ridging
will gradually weaken today as a strong low pressure system
moves eastward across the Gulf states and up the East Coast.
Highs won`t make it out of the low-40s and PoPs will quickly
ramp up later this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold and dry through this afternoon

- Winter weather expected tonight through Saturday morning

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect everywhere except for the
  OBX from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke Inlet

There still remains some uncertainty in the track of the low, and
this could greatly impact where the swath of greatest freezing rain
occurs. A track slightly more offshore (Canadian) supports a cooler
solution and would result in a more widespread freezing rain event
with greater ice totals. A more inland track (GFS) supports a warmer
solution, which would produce more mixed precipitation and less ice
accumulation. Although the variations in track may look subtle,
their storm total ice QPF greatly differs.

The trend in nearly all of the models has the low stronger, faster,
and slightly farther east when it passes the NC coast. So what does
this mean for precipitation and accumulation?:

**Inland**

Precipitation will likely start later this afternoon as a mix of
rain and sleet. As the temperature drops and PoPs overspread the
coastal plain this evening, rain and sleet will transition to a mix
of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Ice accumulation is most likely
across Martin, Pitt, Greene, and Lenoir Counties with the greatest
amounts likely occurring in their far northwestern sections (0.1-
0.2"). Light ice accumulation (0.05" or less) is possible across the
rest of the coastal plain. The greatest chance of snow will be for
the aforementioned counties as well as those along the northern
border of the CWA with totals of 0.5" or less. The wintry mix will
gradually transition to just rain around sunrise with PoPs
decreasing from west to east through the morning. Potential impacts
include slick, hazardous roads and power outages.

**Coast**

The potential for wintry precipitation along the coast has slightly
increased. Precipitation will likely start as rain later this
afternoon and transition to a mix of rain, sleet, and snow after
sunset. The greatest moisture will be along the coast, so periods of
moderate to heavy showers can be expect between midnight and
sunrise. Although ice accumulation is unlikely for most of the
coast, coastal Onslow and western Carteret have the greatest
potential for seeing at least some light icing (0.05" or less). Near
sunrise, ptypes will transition to mostly rain and with decreasing
PoPs through the day. All showers should be off the coast by mid-
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Friday...

Cold and dry and then cold and drier second half of next week.

Sunday and Monday...SFC and upper low depart sharply to the NE
making way for benign ridging to briefly build over ECONUS, allowing
cool and dry conditions to return. Despite being in the wake of the
low, the coldest airmass will still be pinned to the N of the FA
until we can break the SWerly flow pattern off the Gulf of Mexico in
the mid and upper levels. Monday will be warmest day in the period
with MaxTs in the upper-40s to low-50s.

Monday Night Onward...Upper low traveling Eward through Sern CAN
picks up a SFC low as they approach the Great Lakes. Once these lows
reach our longitude Monday night, we`ll get into a better NWerly CAA
regime with pulses of stronger winds and CAA associated with waves
traveling through the low aloft surging through the jet overhead.
Drier airmass being pushed in noted by the Tds in the teens, and
potential single digits later in the week, will make the
40s/UpperTeens-20s split feel CRISP.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Saturday/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Light wintry mix may begin as early as this afternoon

High pressure will be moving offshore today as a strong low
approaches from the SW. VFR conditions will prevail through at
least mid-afternoon before cloud cover and PoPs start to
increase from SW to NE. Precip will likely start as a mix of
rain and sleet and transition to a mix of freezing rain, sleet,
and snow after sunset. This will continue overnight with periods
of moderate to heavy showers possible closer to the coast.
During the overnight hours, periods of LIFR ceilings and IFR to
LIFR visibilities can be expected.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0345 Friday...VFR flight cats return by Saturday evening
and prevail through the longterm outside of early morning fog
possibilities which appear unlikely at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 5 AM Friday...

NNW winds 10-20 kt early this morning will become NW 5-15 kt by
afternoon with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft for the
central/northern waters and 2-3 ft across the southern waters.
Tonight, winds become variable due to a passing low. By Saturday
morning, winds south of Cape Hatteras will be out of the west
and peaking at 20-30 kt with 30-35 kt gusts. North of Cape
Hatteras, winds will be slightly weaker around 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt. Winds will remain around the same speed but
continue veering to the NW Saturday night. Seas will build
starting early Saturday morning and will peak later in the
afternoon/evening at 5-8 ft south of Cape Hatteras and 4-7 ft
to the north.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 0345 Friday...The initial NWerly CAA surge behind the low
and its associated cold front relaxes overnight Saturday as
weak high pressure spills over area waters from the W Sunday
leading to winds falling out and potentially becoming calm
across the board Sunday night. Seas quickly lay down in response
making late Sunday best boating conditions. Predominantly
NWerly flow with winds gradually increasing through the early
week, peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when stout
upper level jet and reinforcing front strengthening NWerly winds
to at least SCA criteria for coastal waters and larger sounds,
with potential for Gale force gusts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Saturday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
     198-199-203.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...OJC/CEB
MARINE...OJC/CEB