409
FXUS62 KMHX 260232
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1032 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late tomorrow and
tomorrow night bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Behind this front, cooler high pressure builds in through early
next week. By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with
another cold front approaching by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Friday...

ENC remains shower and thunderstorm-free at this time. Based on
this, and recent short-term guidance, I`ve further lowered the
chance of showers and thunderstorms for the remainder of the
night. Showers continue just offshore of the southern OBX, so I
left a low- end chance there through the night. Of note, well to
the west of ENC, a decent convective complex is ongoing from SW
NC into western GA. Short term guidance insists that this
complex will weaken with time as it shifts east through the
night, and the downstream airmass appears supportive of this
scenario. Something to watch, though, as even a remnant of this
convection could play into where Saturday`s convection is
focused.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Popcorn showers and thunderstorms have
been ongoing across ENC over the past several hours, forming
along the seabreeze and outflow boundaries. This activity is
expected to continue as the seabreeze moves farther inland. As
we get into tonight, isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain on the table with areas across the far inner coastal
plain and along the OBX having the best chance at seeing
precipitation. Warm and moist southwest flow will help keep
temps several degrees warmer tonight in the mid- to upper-60s.
With the gradient tightening ahead of an approaching cold front,
southwest winds at 5-10 mph will keep the boundary layer mixed
and preclude any fog development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3:30 PM Friday...A more active weather day is expected
tomorrow as a cold front approaches the area and supports more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. The first round of
showers and thunderstorms will initiate mid-morning and become
more widespread through the early afternoon. Activity may become
more sparse for a few hours before ramping back up in the
evening as the front passes.

For the second round of convection, the atmosphere will be
primed with highs in the low-80s and dews in the mid-60s.
Impressive SBCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg, 150-250 kt of
0-3 km SRH, and 25-35 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear will develop
across the coastal plain late tomorrow afternoon/early evening,
which could support organized multi-cells with severe wind
gusts and some rotating updrafts. The kicker will be how much
damage the first round of showers and thunderstorms does to the
atmosphere and whether or not we will be able to recover enough
to support strong to severe storms in the evening. This second
(and stronger) round of convection is expected to enter our
western coastal plain counties after 00Z and continue
progressing eastward through the evening. The severe threat will
decrease as storms move into a less favorable environment along
the immediate coast but could revamp as they move over the
coastal waters where instability will be greater.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0330 Friday...

Weekend...CAA Saturday night behind the front will lead to
MinTs in the mid 50s over Nern zones, around 60 or warmer
immediate coast. Sunday will feature cooler and drier air as
high pressure builds over the area from the N, persisting into
next week. Again NBM PoPs look to high for Sunday. Could see a
lingering early morning shower maybe, but expecting all precip
activity to be well offshore by sunrise Sun. MaxTs in low to mid
70s Sun with clearing skies.

Next Week...Will continue a dry weather forecast
through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze
shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. PoPs increase
again on Wednesday with the approach of another front to cross
the area later in the week, most likely Thursday at this time.
Ts warming ahead of the late week front, upper 70s Mon, low 80s
Tues, and upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 700 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Sub VFR CIGs possible tonight-Saturday AM (20-40% chance)

 - Monitoring a TSRA risk for Saturday

The seabreeze has cleared through all of ENC, and with it the
risk of SHRA and TSRA has decreased. Through the remainder of
the night, the risk of SHRA and TSRA looks to remain very low
(<10% chance). Continued southerly flow and modest moisture
advection in the wake of the seabreeze may support the return of
SCT to BKN low clouds later tonight into early Saturday
morning. Guidance isn`t overly excited about sub VFR CIGs
through the night, and gives about a 20- 40% chance of this
occurring. Based on this, and given the lack of low clouds on
satellite, I`ve opted to pull back on the CIG potential, and now
show a SCT layer around 4k ft. We`ll continue to monitor this
potential through the night, though.

During the day Saturday, gusty southwest winds are expected to
peak in the 20-25kt range, especially from mid-morning into the
afternoon hours. As the atmosphere destabilizes, there should be
a modest increase in the risk of SHRA and TSRA. However, the
one caveat about Saturday is that there doesn`t appear to be a
significant source of lift, which makes the coverage of TSRA
less certain. Given this, I added a PROB30 group during the
afternoon to reflect the modest potential. A somewhat better
chance of TSRA may develop after 00z.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 0345 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more
widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a
period of sub VFR conditions. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday persisting through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 4 PM Friday...Boating conditions will deteriorate on
Saturday as a cold front crosses ENC. Tonight, winds will
become southwesterly at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt and 3-5 ft
seas. Tomorrow, southwest winds will increase to 15-20+ kt with
gusts to 20-25 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist through the period with the best chance for strong to
severe storms being late Saturday night as the cold front
passes. SCAs for all coastal waters and the Croatan, Roanoke,
and Pamlico Sounds will start tomorrow afternoon and last until
Sunday afternoon. The Albemarle Sound and Alligator River may
briefly gust to 25 kt late Saturday night, but given the short
duration, a SCA has not been issued at this time.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 0400 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

Saturday, ahead of the next cold front, winds become S to SW
10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat
night. The front will cross area waters from N to S after sunset
Saturday night. Sunday, post frontal Nerly surge works down the
coast through Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in
behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt. Prefrontal
wind forecast has increased showing potential for prefrontal SCA
conditions as well. However, the prefrontal winds are more
marginal for SCA, so have opted not to issue headlines for this
event just yet. Seas 3-5ft Saturday with 6ft building over outer
waters as Nerly surge hits Sunday. Seas subside to 2-4ft
through the day Monday to reach 2-3ft Tuesday. Boating
conditions deteriorate again Wed ahead of the next front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ135-150-152-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB/OJC