418
FXUS62 KMHX 091055
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
655 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west today with another
frontal system late week. High pressure then builds in again for
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...Cool high pressure will continue to
build over the area as flow becomes more zonal aloft across the
Carolinas. Low level thickness values, mostly sunny skies and
E-NE flow will keep high temps in the 50s along the Outer Banks
and low 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...Arctic high pressure will continue to
influence weather over the Carolinas through Wednesday night,
continuing a brief run of below average temperatures. Stuck with
the lower end of guidance, given clear skies, calm winds, and
lingering lower dewpoints for tonight resulting in great
radiational cooling conditions. Stratocu starts moving in over
coastal communities from the east early morning Thursday. Lows
in the upper 30s inland, 40s for beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...A largely quiet period of weather is
forecast for eastern North Carolina in the long term, punctuated
by a period of wet and potentially stormy conditions to end the
week. Temperatures will run near to slightly below average
through the weekend, rebounding to modestly above average to
kick off the new week.

Thursday...Dry conditions expected to start the day as today`s
high pressure quickly lifts into the northern Atlantic, ceding
ground to low pressure diving towards the Carolinas Thurs
evening ahead of deep mid-level troughing. With SE return flow,
temps will warm to near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s
inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast.

Thursday night through Saturday...Trough will continue to dig
towards the Carolinas overnight with surface low progged to move
roughly across the NC/VA state line on Friday. Guidance
continues to come into good agreement on timing and placement of
the parent low, with the main cold front forecast to cross late
Fri into Sat AM. Shower activity may begin across the coastal
plain as early as Thursday night, but the most likely period of
precipitation remains Friday. Given increasing confidence,
expanded area of categorical PoPs, continuing to favor areas
farther north. Healthy cloud cover on Friday will keep temps
tempered, in the upper 60s to low 70s, but with Tds near 60
there remains a window for some instability Fri afternoon as
CAPEs climb to 500-750 J/kg. Thus, continued a tstorm mention
areawide. Increase in deep layer shear may contribute to a low-
end severe risk on Friday, although the modest instability will
be a limiting factor.

Upper low will move overhead on Saturday, and despite the front
and surface low moving offshore steepening lapse rates in the
afternoon and lingering pool of moisture do hint some iso to
widely sct shower development. Given limited coverage, kept rain
chances at slight chance for now.

Sunday through Tuesday...The upper low should be offshore by
Sunday with upper ridging and sfc high pressure building in from
the southwest, keeping conditions dry but warmer through
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance does hint at a fast- moving front
approaching the region on Tuesday, although confidence in any
associated precip is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 6Z Thursday/...
As of 7 AM Tue...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Clear skies through the CWA as high builds in through the
morning hours. Surge in north/northeast breezes this morning
with tightened pressure gradient from high, though should remain
at or below 15 kt over mainland ENC. Exception of OBX where
gusts up to 25-30mph are possible this morning. The
northeasterly breeze becomes more easterly through the day
though only in the 10-15 kt range. Winds decrease substantially
for Wednesday night and skies remain generally clear inland,
with some stratocu moving in from the east for coastal
communities as high moves offshore.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...High pressure slides offshore
Thursday, with pred VFR conditions expected. An upper low will
approach the area late in the week bringing the potential for
sub-VFR conditions, especially in showers and thunderstorms,
Thursday night and Friday. Periods of MVFR are probable Saturday
while upper low lingers over the area, but return of ridging and
high pressure ushers in predominantly VFR for Sunday and beyond.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 7 AM Wednesday...N/NE winds 15-25 kts with some gusts near
30 kts this morning from a tightened pressure gradient as high
builds to our north and weak low lingers to our south. SCA for
coastal waters from Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet from 10-17Z
today, as the southern half of the CWA will see best chances of
prolonged gusts at or above 25 kts. As you go further north,
duration and intensity of SCA gusts decreases for this morning.
MWS has been issued for Pamlico, Albemarle, Croatan, Roanoke
Sounds, Neuse and Alligator River, and Coastal waters from
Oregon Inlet to Duck for NE winds gusting up to 30 kts. SCA
continues for the northern and central waters through the
morning for lingering 6 ft seas and this surge of NE winds.
Elsewhere, seas 3-5 ft expected through today. Tonight, winds
remain generally easterly 10-15 kts and seas continue dropping,
becoming 2-4 ft.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...Generally quiet marine conditions are
expected through the long term period. The high migrates
offshore Thursday with winds becoming becoming southeasterly,
then southerly by Thursday PM into Friday. Cold front will
swing across the waters on Fri PM through Saturday, with winds
veering back to the northwest through Sunday as upper low and
surface cyclone exit over the open Atlantic. Ensemble guidance
continues to point to low probabilities (less than 20%) of
offshore SCA on Friday ahead of the cold front, but did increase
slightly for Sat PM into Sun AM with a northwesterly surge.
Seas expected to mainly be around 2-4 ft mid week, ticking up to
3-5 feet by week`s end. Some spotty 6 foot seas are possible
across waters around 20 nm late Sunday with the aforementioned
surge.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-044-079.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...MS/RJ