276
FXUS62 KMHX 010810
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
410 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will move through the area this morning with high
pressure building back into the area from the north on Tuesday.
Oppressive heat and humidity build back in over the second half
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 400 AM Mon...Latest surface analysis this morning depicts
a cold front sagging southward out of southern Virginia, while a
weakening pre-frontal trough sits along the immediate coast.
There are two distinct areas of showers and thunderstorms - the
first and more vigorous sitting south of Highway 64, and the
second frontally-forced broken band roughly along the VA/NC
border. Both areas clusters are expected to continue gradually
pushing south and offshore as the primary cold front (and
associated shortwave aloft) crosses the region. Pre-frontal
environment remains highly favorable for efficient rainfall
makers with PWATs near 2.5", and a quick inch or two of rain is
likely in the stronger cells. Despite ample instability to the
tune of 2000-2500 J/kg, shear is very weak and a severe risk is
not anticipated with either grouping of convection.

The front is expected to fully cross the FA by around midday,
although some CAMs show the boundary getting held up along the
southern coastline keeping clouds and a shower threat in place
here into the early afternoon. Farther north, drier and stable
air will quickly work its way in as high pressure builds in
behind the front with Tds falling into the low 60s and skies
quickly clearing. This airmass is expected to eventually build
over the southern coast by around sunset as the front sags
further offshore.

Widespread clouds and precipitation this morning keeps
temperatures relatively flat for much of the morning, especially
along the southern coast. Some low 80s are likely north of New
Bern where afternoon sun will be able to break out, but further
south highs will struggle to hit the 80 degree mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Mon...High pressure and drier airmass will settle
over eastern NC tonight with skies continuing to clear, although
some clouds likely linger south of Highway 70. With freshly
saturated soils and light winds cannot rule out a ground fog
threat early Tues morning. Lows will reach unseasonably cool
levels, dipping into the low 60s inland while along the
immediate coast upper 60s to low 70s will hold strong.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Mon...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Cooler than average temps are forecast on Tue and Wed

- Oppressive heat and humidity return this weekend

Tue and Wed...Upper troughing will be located offshore at the
start of the period and continue to push E`wards further into
the Atlantic while upper ridging builds over the Southeast Tue
and Wed. At the surface, high pressure ridge centered over the
Northeast will extend S`wards over the Carolinas bringing light
NE winds as well as dry conditions to ENC on Tue. High pressure
ridge gradually slides E`wards into the Atlantic on Wed turning
winds to the E and then SE by Wed afternoon though fair weather
will continue across the area. Highs get into the 80s each day
and lows get into the 60s to low 70s each night. With dewpoints
forecast to be in the 60s, it will feel much more comfortable
outside through midweek.

Thurs through the weekend... Our most impactful weather likely
occurs at the end of the week and into the weekend as oppressive
heat and humidity sets up across the Southeast once again.
Upper ridging will remain overhead into next weekend as any
upper level troughs struggle to dig S`wards. At the surface,
high pressure ridging will continue to push further offshore
through the end of the week allowing return flow and moisture
return to resume across ENC. As mentioned above, temps will
steadily warm into the weekend allowing oppressive heat and
humidity to return to ENC starting on Fri and persisting into
the end of the weekend. Otherwise climatological avg precip
chances will resume starting this weekend as well with at least
a chance for some shower and tstm development each afternoon
along the seabreeze.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Tue/...
As of 135 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across TAF terminals
early this morning but with two clusters of showers and
thunderstorms in their vicinity - the first along a pre-frontal
trough which will likely impact terminals south of PGV at the
beginning of the TAF period, and another immediately ahead of a
cold front currently pushing into southern VA this hour.
Upstream observations show VFR conditions still prevailing in
these two areas of convection, except for brief periods of
MVFR/IFR with heavier rainfall. Prior forecast captured these
trends well and only made some minor adjustments to timing of
both bands. Probability of MVFR cigs is high (80-90%), and IFR
cigs is moderate (30-40%).

Front will push across the terminals this morning with dry air
filling in as high pressure builds in its wake. Guidance does
show the front getting held up along the coast briefly this
morning, so MVFR cigs will probably hold on for EWN/OAJ into the
early afternoon while VFR likely returns by mid-morning across
the coastal plain. Dry and clearing conditions prevail over all
terminals by sunset as high pressure becomes dominant areawide.

Southwesterly winds this morning quickly veer northerly and then
northeasterly behind the front, gusting to 15-20 kt through the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tue through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Mon... Primarily VFR conditions forecast through
the period with light winds as high pressure settles in across
the Eastern Seaboard.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 410 AM Mon...Regional observations show south to
southwesterly pre-frontal flow prevailing across area waters,
reaching 10-15 kt with gusts nearing 25 kt at times. The front,
currently over the VA/NC border, will continue to drop southward
through midday with models still insistent on a north to
northeasterly surge of around 20 kt with higher gusts. Latest
trends show a stronger signal for gustier conditions over the
Albemarle Sound and Alligator River, and extended SCA headlines
to capture these waters during the morning and early afternoon.
The brevity and marginal nature of the winds will keep seas
below 6 feet through the period.

Shower and thunderstorm threat associated with the front will
continue across all waters into midday, ending from north to
south. Shower threat will continue into the mid afternoon south
of Cape Lookout.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Mon...Mostly benign boating conditions are
forecast for the period. Initially, high pressure ridging will
settle in across the Eastern Seaboard as a frontal boundary
remains to the south of the area. This will keep a tighter
pressure gradient over our waters at the start of Tues allowing
for NE`rly winds at 15-20 kts and 3-5 ft seas to persist into
Tues evening. Occasional 6 ft seas are possible mainly along the
Gulf Stream waters but think any chance at 6 ft seas quickly
end by mid morning. Then as high pressure ridging continues to
gradually push E`wards across the area, the gradient will relax
allowing winds to ease to 5-10 kts while becoming more E`rly by
Wed morning. Winds continue to remain light and veer to the SE
and eventually the S on Thurs as ridging becomes centered to the
E. Seas will gradually lower as well Wed and Thurs down to 2-4
ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131-
     230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-152-154-
     156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF