Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
417 FXUS62 KMHX 280622 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 222 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control across the Southeast into this weekend. A weak low pressure system may develop along the southeast coast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Thu...All remains quiet across ENC early this morning with high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians. Temps have cooled well into the 50s in some spots thanks to ideal radiational cooling conditions. High clouds moving in from the west will curtail additional cooling through sunrise, and expect temps to remain mostly steady or increase slightly. Can`t rule out some patchy fog, especially where the strongest cooling occurs. Today, high pressure will shift eastward and eventually offshore by this afternoon as a deep upper trough remains over the region. Mostly dry conditions will persist, although localized convergence along several sea and sound breezes have the potential bring some isolated brief showers to the area. High clouds will continue over the area with the strong trough overhead, and should become thicker through the day. This will result in highs a touch cooler than yesterday, but still into the upper 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 2 AM Thu...High pressure will build offshore tonight, while a nearly stationary upper level trough remains overhead. A dry airmass will continue over ENC keeping the night rain-free. Strong radiational cooling and some subtle low level moisture advection could bring the threat of patchy fog to inland areas. Otherwise, quiet overnight conditions are expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s inland, and the mid to upper 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Thurs... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek next week - Recent trends suggest while a low pressure will develop off the coast this weekend into early next week, impacts may be limited depending on the exact track of the low Higher than normal uncertainty reigns supreme in the long term, especially from Monday onwards as model guidance continues to struggle with exact timing and how strong incoming troughs are this coming week. Minor deviations in what is currently forecast over the next few days will have impacts downstream on what the area actually sees late this weekend and into next week. Overall, general pattern shows broad troughing over the Eastern Seaboard through the entire period with deeper upper level troughs digging into the Southeastern CONUS this weekend and potentially late next week. Several mid level shortwaves are forecast to round the base of the deepening troughing over the weekend and again late next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio RIver Valley will extend S`wards into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. This will keep the overall storm track shunted to the south. As a result things will remain dry on Friday with PoP`S remaining below mentionable levels. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s inland, and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Will need to monitor temps for Friday as they may be too low as westerly downslope flow may help temps overperform. Upper level troughing reloads this weekend as the next set of shortwaves pushes across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will allow for the development of a surface low across the Deep South with this low then tracking north and eastwards in the following days with the low deepening after it pushes off the Southeastern Coast early next week. At the same time, high pressure will wedge itself across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and extend down into the Carolinas. The strength of this surface ridge will go a long way in determining what the area sees late this weekend and into early next week as there are still differences across forecast guidance in the overall evolution of this pattern. Though will note, the recent trend has been for this low to push further offshore, thus limiting any precip threats to areas along and east of Hwy 17. Though with the recent trends, much if not all of the precipitation could end up offshore as well. Will have to continue to monitor trends in the coming days closely to see if this optimistic trend continues. Precip chances start as early as Saturday, and linger potentially into Monday night. Highs generally remain in the upper 70s to low 80s into Monday with lows ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Following this system, below normal temps will persist across the SE with upper level troughing remaining in place through mid next week. Will have to monitor the approach of a second and much deeper mid level shortwave, but with low confidence in the overall forecast beyond Monday due to high model variability will need to see some trends in the forecast guidance before discussing this trough further. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 2 AM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with dry high pressure over the region. Strong radiational cooling this morning may lead to patchy fog development in some locales, but visibilities should remain at MVFR levels or higher. High clouds move in for most of the day, with clearing expected by this evening. Another night of strong radiational cooling will introduce the risk of patchy fog formation. Right now, not anticipating any significant reductions in visibilities early tomorrow morning. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 215 AM Thurs... Not much change in the forecast as we expect a predominantly VFR forecast into this weekend with cool and dry high pressure over the region. Increasing rain chances later in the weekend may bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to ENC into early next week. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Thu...Great boating conditions will continue today and tonight with high pressure over the region. Winds will be generally 5-15 kts and range between ENE and ESE through tonight. Seas will be mostly 1-3 ft across the coastal waters. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 215 AM Thurs...Rather benign boating conditions through this weekend with high pressure generally in control of the weather. 5-15 kt winds forecast through Saturday varying from a N/NW to a S`rly direction on Friday and then a W/NW to NE/SE direction on Sat. Seas will generally remain around 1-3 ft through this timeframe. Then as we get into Sunday and Monday a deepening low pressure well off the coast of the Southeast should tighten the pressure gradient some allowing for winds to become NE`rly across all waters on Sunday to increase to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Sun/Mon. In response to the stronger winds seas are forecast to build to 4-6 ft across our coastal waters potentially bringing some SCA conditions to the area early next week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...SGK/RCF MARINE...SGK/RCF