867
FXUS62 KMHX 150753
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
353 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and will anchor over the Eastern
Seaboard into this weekend. A cold front will move through the
area Monday bringing a chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 0230 Wednesday...Central CONUS ridging aloft begins to
erode today while slowly drifting Eward from E Texas toward ARK
while trough continues to depart Eward out to sea and new upper
low begins to dig Sward from CAN. Clouds continue but clear from
W E through the day as low/troughing kicks out, becoming
confined to the immediate coast this afternoon, and completely
offshore around sunset. Warmer today with the clearer skies but
the Tds in the mid 50s keep it comfortable, MaxTs in low to mid
70s most, upper 60s NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0300 Wednesday...Clear skies and light CAA out of the N
make for a cool night as SFC high begins to nose into the FA.
Upper 40s in far NWern zones, low to mid 50s Crystal Coast,
around 60 OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler Thursday and Friday with highs below
  normal and lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with
  above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of rain expected late Sunday night through Monday
  a cold front moves through

A cooler airmass builds in Thursday and Friday (highs in the
60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-
centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then
offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across
the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/...
As of 0130 Wednesday...Sharp cutoff of stratocu rotating about
low pressure offshore slowly departing to the E. EWN has best
chance of remaining MVFR through WED morning with PGV and OAJ
being subject to wobbles/notches in the cloud coverage, hence
the TEMPOs here. ISO expected to remain VFR through the TAF
period. Skies clear from W to E through the day WED. 5-10kt
Nerly winds inland through the period with some 15kt gusts in
the afternoon, 10-20kt with some higher gusts OBX. SKC and
calming winds overnight, but low levels should be too dry for
any meaningful fog development.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wed Night/...
As of 0330 Wednesday...Steady Nerly breezes persist. SCAs in
place for all coastal waters and PamSound. Winds pick back up
with another secondary Nerly surge of winds after midnight
tonight leading to another SCA for CroaNoke and Albemarle
Sounds.

Seas 8-10ft Diamond Shoals N, 5-7ft Cape to Cape, 2-4ft
nearshore waters S of Lookout. Seas generally subside through
the day while winds ease some, by sunset becoming 6-8ft, 4-6ft,
1-3ft for the same areas. Seas build yet again with the uptick
in Nerly winds overnight.


LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through Friday with strong Small
   Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure
gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N
at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly
late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Winds
then increase ahead of a cold front Sunday to 15-25 kts. Seas
will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7
ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Wed...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue
this week keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in
the forecast through at least Thursday.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns
will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially
Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high
water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with
up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Friday night for
     AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX