098
FXUS62 KMHX 301815
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
215 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place today with high
pressure offshore and troughing inland bringing very warm
temperatures and isolated thunderstorm chances. A frontal
system approaches the east coast Tuesday and Wednesday bringing
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the
frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime temperatures and thunderstorm chances

Upper ridging and surface high pressure remain centered over the
western Atlantic south of Bermuda with a thermal trough across the
across the piedmont with SW flow continuing to bring a very warm and
humid airmass across the region. Conditions not too dissimilar to
yesterday with moderate instability and SBCAPE peaking around 2000-
2500 J/Kg MLCAPE this afternoon and negligible bulk shear only
around 5-10 kt. Latest radar as of 1 PM already shows a few
developing showers along the sea breeze, but broad subsidence aloft
is expected to limit thunderstorm chances with storm initiation
primarily along the sea and sound breezes and subsequent outflow
boundaries through peak heating. Lack of shear will limit storm
organization but cannot rule out a few storms producing locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds if deeper cores are able to develop.
Heat indices are again expected top top out near 100 F.

A weak front approaching from the west will bring tightening
pressure gradients this afternoon bringing gustier SW winds this
afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph expected. Southwest winds are
expected to remain elevated overnight around 10 mph, which will
limit the potential for any fog to develop. Otherwise, thunderstorm
potential quickly diminishes this evening, with a mostly clear night
expected with temps dropping to the mid-70s inland (upper-70s to
near 80 beaches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday
afternoon

- An approaching cold front may bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest chances west of Highway 17.

A broad trough will pivot across the eastern US Tuesday as a surface
cold front will push slowly across NC. PoPs increase from west to
east through the day. Enough instability will be present for a few
stronger storms to develop in the late afternoon/evening, especially
for areas west of Highway 17. SPC currently has portions of the
northwest CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe
weather. Latest CAM guidance does keep ENC largely dry tomorrow, so
lending uncertainty to the coverage of storms. This will be
monitored for future updates. The gradient between the Bermuda High
and the approaching trough will become tighter on Tuesday, resulting
in gusty winds across the area but especially along the coast. Heat
indices around 100 are expected Tuesday afternoon

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday Night
   and Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week and could
   bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

A broad trough will pivot across the eastern US Tuesday, moving
overhead Wednesday and offshore late week. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly cross into NC Tuesday Night. The
front will get hung up across ENC on Wednesday. This boundary,
coupled with the arrival of greater upper level support from the
trough, will bring likely to categorical PoPs across the area.
Slow storm motions, long skinny CAPE profiles, and PWATs in
excess of 2" support concern for heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding Wednesday afternoon/evening. WPC
has our entire CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall. Given a lack of shear, the severe potential is of less
concern than that of flooding rain. However, some stronger
gusts within thunderstorms remain possible.

The surface front will slowly move east on Thursday but mid and
upper troughing will persist across the east coast through Friday.
The proximity of this front and the development of the afternoon
seabreeze will keep slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast for
most of the area on Thursday. There`s potential for a low to develop
along the stalled boundary once it encounters the warmer Gulf Stream
waters on Thursday, but this feature would progress to the northeast
and away from our coast as high pressure builds in from the west.

A closed low will then move through southern Quebec and into the
northeast US on Friday with a reinforcing cold front sagging south
into the FA. Better upper level support will be displaced to the
north, but ample moisture will still be in place to support a few
showers and thunderstorms. We`ll return to a more typical summertime
pattern to start the weekend with seabreeze convection being the
focal point of precip chances as high pressure moves back in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Mainly VFR outside of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon

 - SW wind gusts to 15-20 kt this afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms may bring brief sub-VFR conditions this
afternoon, with VFR conditions expected to persist through the end
of the period otherwise. Pressure gradient tightens some this
afternoon with the approach of a weak cold front. While wind gusts
have been slightly slower to increase than expected through the
early afternoon, still expect gusts to 15-20 kts this afternoon.
Tightened gradients continue tonight with SW winds around 5-10 kt
which will preclude fog development. Some guidance does depict low
chances of low stratus bringing MVFR conditions across the
southwestern portions of the forecast area before dawn tomorrow, but
confidence in any MVFR conditions occurring is currently low.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Monday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR
flight conditions Tuesday evening through Wednesday as a slow
moving front brings chances for thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will persist
through the rest of the period with PoPs highest near the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...

As of 2 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Winds and seas begin increase this afternoon through tomorrow
   with SCA conditions developing across most of the coastal
   waters

Winds will continue to increase this afternoon as the gradient
tightens ahead of a slow moving cold front. Small craft
conditions will develop across portions of the coastal waters
late this afternoon/evening as winds become SW 15-20 with
frequent gusts to 25 kts. Winds subside slightly overnight as
the thermal gradient weakens, but restrengthen tomorrow morning
to SW 20-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Small craft conditions
spread to all coastal and inland waters tomorrow and seas build
to 4-6 ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night though Saturday/...
As of 2 PM Monday...Small craft conditions continue Tuesday
night through most of Wednesday ahead of a slow moving cold
front. Southwest winds will increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to
around 30 kt Tuesday night, with seas building to 5-6 ft. By
late Wednesday morning, the gradient will become more relaxed.
Southwest winds will drop back to around 15 kt with gusts 20-25
kt with seas falling to 3-5 ft by the afternoon. Winds will
generally be southwesterly at 10-15 kt on Thursday and variable
at 10-15 kt on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ131-136-137-154-156-158-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ135-150-152-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...SGK/ZC