672
FXUS62 KMHX 011741
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
141 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will move south as a cold front late today.
High pressure builds in to close out the rest of the week.
Another front will move through the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 140 PM Tue... Latest surface analysis and satellite data
show a complex set of low level features that will bring our
sensible weather to the area this afternoon. A stalled front
currently extends from the Crystal Coast NE`wards to offshore
Oregon Inlet with a developing weak surface low noted offshore
of Nags Head this afternoon. Further inland a surface boundary
currently extends from SE to NW from Pamlico County out to
Greene/Pitt Counties. This has been the focus for some shower
activity this afternoon with additional shower and maybe some
isolated thunderstorm activity forecast into this evening. As a
result kept SChc to Chc PoPs in the forecast today with light
precip generally 0.25 inches or less expected across ENC today.
Temps have trended generally cooler especially along the N`rn
OBX where low 70s are noted and given the ongoing cloud cover
there general expectation is for cooler temps overall across
ENC.

Prev Disc...Low pressure will continue to push offshore today,
allowing the front to push south through all of ENC by this
evening. Along the front, there will continue to be risk of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Expect best
coverage near the Albemarle Sound and northern Outer Banks,
where there could be locally heavy rain and potential for
localized flooding. The risk will decrease from north to south
in the wake of the front. Despite decent shear, instability is
forecast to be lower today, which should keep the risk of strong
thunderstorms on the low side. Locally heavy rain will be
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 335 AM Tue...Front will push south of the area tonight as
cooler and drier air grad filters in with low level N/NNE flow.
Patchy fog will be possible, but think light N flow will keep
it more low stratus. Sct showers may linger early this evening,
grad pushing offshore by late evening. Lows falling into the 60s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...Dry front moves through the are late WED
leading to slightly cooler temps and drier pattern ahead of the
next front which will impact the area this weekend. Keeping
close eyes on the potential for another tropical system to
develop in the Gulf of Mexico the latter half of this week.

Mid to late-week...A northern stream wave will push a dry cold
front across the area late Wednesday as upper ridging builds
overhead from the S and SFC high pressure spills over the FA
from the N behind the departing cold front. Highs and lows right
around Normal, low 80/60s split. Some global guidance shows
precip rotating about the offshore low skirting coastal areas
during this period, but have opted to consider this an artifact
of coarser grid scaling of these models and keep all land areas
dry.

Weekend...The weekend will start with an upper trough digging
across the northeastern US and a cold front sliding across ENC
sometime end of the week, currently forecast to move through Friday
night into Saturday morning.

Early Next Week...Another front crosses through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 140 PM Tue...As expected have a general range of VFR to
MVFR ceilings across ENC this afternoon as mixing heights max
out around 2.5-4.5 kft across the area with the highest cloud
decks noted across EWN/OAJ TAF sites with lower ceilings further
north closer to where a surface trough is located. In addition
to this scattered shower and a few isolated thunderstorms are
currently noted on radar as of this update as well. Expect
continued sct showers and iso tstms across the region through
the rest of the afternoon as a stalled front eventually pushes
south and the aforementioned surface trough also pushes south of
the region. Kept a VCSH mention at all terminals given the
chance for showers but given the low chance for tstms did not
add a mention of this in the TAFs this afternoon. NNE`rly winds
develop behind the front as it tracks S with low stratus
advecting in behind the front this evening. While this should
limit the fog threat still expecting IFR/LIFR ceilings across
all terminals starting between 00z-03z tonight and persisting
into Wed morning before ceilings lift to MVFR heights mid day.
Expect a brisk N`rly breeze tomorrow as well with 5-10 kt N`rly
winds with 10-15 kt gusts Wed afternoon.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...VFR flight cats expected to prevail from
midweek on in drier air behind Wed`s dry FROPA. Rain chances not
returning to the forecast until the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Tue...SCA conditions expected to develop across
portions of the waters later this morning and this afternoon.
Latest obs show E-W winds 5-15 kt and seas 3-5 ft north of
Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south. Stalled front currently bisecting
the Pamlico Sound and central waters will push south as a cold
front later today, with winds grad becoming N/NE. N/NE winds
will increase to 15-25 kt late this afternoon and overnight,
surging from north to south. Persistent moderate onshore flow
and increasing swell from strengthening offshore low will allow
seas to build to 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke later this morning
and early afternoon. Seas south of Ocracoke will build to 2-4 ft
later this morning and 3-5 ft overnight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...Winds become more NEerly 10-20kt Wed
persisting through Thursday. Seas will respond by building to
around 7 ft by Wednesday evening. SCA seas will likely continue
through at least Thursday evening. NEerly winds 10-15kt THU
through SUN. Seas start to subside Thursday but 6-7ft lingers
over outer central waters through the work-week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CQD/CEB