751
FXUS62 KMHX 032358
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
658 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Carolinas through Wednesday.
Dry cold front crosses late Wed night/early Thu with high
pressure building back in to round out the week. Another dry
cold front moves through by Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 PM Mon...Upper low continues to push off the coast this
evening as mid-level ridge builds eastward over the SE CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure centered over the deep south will
continue to build eastward. Lower clouds will continue to push
off the coast as CAA and rapid influx of dry air surges over
eastern NC, resulting in clearing skies for the rest of the
night. Lows will fall into the low to mid 40s, moderated by
steady northwesterly winds. Over OBX, winds will remain near
15-20 mph with higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Mon...Dry, mild and clear conditions tomorrow as
mid-level flow becomes zonal and expansive surface high pressure
settles over much of the southeastern CONUS. Northwesterly
winds will gradually ease through the day, going calm after
sunset and setting the stage for good radiational cooling Wed
morning. Highs in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Mon...

Tue through Fri...Overall a mild and dry pattern. Coolest night
of the week should be Tue night, where dry high pres passes
overhead ENC. This will bring temps down in the 30s for most,
with 40s on the beaches. Patchy frost is possible. Dry cool
front moves through on Wed only bringing a wind shift from sw to
nwrly. Highs generally 65 to 70 each day, near climo for first
week of Nov.

Sat through Sun...Next cold front will move through on Fri night
or Sat AM, though again will be on the dry side, so no real
sensible weather impacts. Not much of a cooldown behind the
fropa as flow will cont zonal, which means seasonable temps
cont.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Winds and incoming drier air should limit any
fog/stratus threat overnight. Light NW-N winds expected
through Tue.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...Generally VFR conditions are expected through
Friday with high pressure over the area. Winds could gust 25-30
mph Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise good flying conditions
are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Mon...Latest obs show W-NW winds 10-20 kt with seas
4-8 ft, highest north of Hatteras. Poor boating conditions
expected to continue into Tuesday as a secondary northwesterly
surge impacts waters after midnight, likely a similar magnitude
to today. Although winds will quickly fall off in the afternoon
and evening to around 10 kt by the evening, seas will be slow to
fall. Soundside and southern waters will drop out of SCA
conditions first, but northern and central waters will still see
seas above 6 feet until late Tues night.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Mon...

Key Messages...

- Improving conditions Tuesday with SCAs ending

- Another round of Small Craft conditions (SW winds) expected
  to develop Wednesday through Thursday morning

- Yet another Small Craft event possible late Friday into the
  weekend

Winds will become NW at 15-25 kts Tuesday morning, and then
weaken to 10-20 kt by the afternoon. Winds will come around to
the SW by Wednesday morning, and then strengthen to 15-25 kts by
the afternoon. Winds will peak at 15-30 kts ahead of a cold
front Wednesday night, and then switch to the N Thursday at
15-25 kts. Winds weaken Thursday night and become easterly by
Friday morning at 5-15 kts. Strong southerly flow then
redevelops late Friday with winds increasing to 15-25 kts.

Seas will be 5-7 ft first thing Tuesday, but will subside to 4-6
ft by the afternoon, and to 3-5 ft by early Tuesday night. 2-4
ft seas expected Wednesday, with an increase to 5-7 ft expected
Wednesday night. Waves will be mostly 3-5 ft Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RTE/CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/SGK/MS