351
FXUS62 KMHX 042301
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak, backdoor cold front crossing eastern North Carolina will
stall south of the coast tonight. A weak low developing along
this boundary may acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two. Regardless of
development, this low is expected to bring increased rain
chances into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Friday...

Key messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon,
  primarily along a line from Aurora to New Bern to
  Jacksonville.

Weak backdoor cold front is currently dropping south across ENC
and is expected to stall south of the coast tonight. Drier air
is filtering in behind this boundary, with PWATs forecast to
fall below an inch across the northern half of the forecast area,
but along the southern coast PWATs will remain at 1.5-1.75".
Enhanced convergence along the sea breeze has already led to the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms through 2 PM
this afternoon. Shear is exceptionally weak, so no risk of
severe weather is expected although showers and thunderstorms
may bring brief periods of heavy rain.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to quickly diminish
after sunset tonight with the loss of heating. High cirrus
associated with the weak low off the southeast US coastline is
expected to stream across the area, increasing throughout the
night. This increasing cloud cover along with light easterly
winds is expected to preclude any fog potential tonight. Lows
are expected to drop to near 70 inland with mid-70s along the
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Friday...

- Developing weak low off the Southeast coast may bring brief
  periods of heavy rainfall to portions of ENC tomorrow, with
  the best chances along the southern coastline.

Weak low currently developing off the southeastern US coastline
is expected to continue to develop offshore and gradually move
north/northwestward over the coming day. NHC`s forecast
indicates a 70% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. The
slow moving nature of this system will present the opportunity
for multiple days of moderate to heavy rainfall. While greater
chances of rainfall do not pick up until Saturday night, current
high-res guidance shows the potential for one to two bands of
precipitation associated with a surface trough/the outer edges
of the low pushing onshore during the day tomorrow. The best
chances for precip are currently along the Outer Banks south of
Hatteras and along the Crystal Coast. Shear profiles remain
rather weak, so not currently expecting any severe threat.
Storms may bring brief periods of heavy rainfall given PWATs of
1.75-2.00", and WPC currently has the far southern coastline in
a Marginal ERO for tomorrow.

Outside of showers and thunderstorm chances, cloud cover is
expected to be more expansive tomorrow. This is forecast to keep
highs a bit cooler, with mid-80s along the coast and upper-80s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1 AM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Tropical or subtropical development off the southeast coast is
possible this weekend

 - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall possible through at
least mid-week depending on the behavior of the low

The long term forecast will be a busy one with unsettled
conditions lasting through the period thanks to potential
tropical development off the FL/GA coast.

Aloft, broad upper ridging will expand eastward across the
midwest. Farther to the south, a mid-level low will rotate over
the eastern Gulf, FL, and the waters off the southeast coast. At
the surface, a weak low will develop along the offshore stalled
frontal boundary that brought heavy rain to the area earlier
this week. This low is expected to develop near the FL/GA coast
and slowly move north toward the Carolinas on Sunday and linger
in the area through mid to late week. While this system is
expected to remain weak throughout its lifecycle, the
environmental conditions are conducive to support further
organization and potentially the development of a tropical or
subtropical depression later today or this weekend. NHC`s
forecast indicates a 70% chance of formation in the next 48
hours as well as in the next 7 days. The slow moving nature of
this system will present the opportunity for multiple days of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Depending on where the low
ultimately tracks, there could be a sharp precipitation gradient
between the northern and southern halves of our CWA on Saturday
with the latter having higher potential for greater rainfall.
This will become clearer over the next couple of days, but the
main hazard of concern for ENC will be heavy rainfall. WPC has
the entire CWA outlined in a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7 PM Friday...Shower and thunderstorm activity is quickly
moving out of ENC this evening and the entire area is forecast
to be precip free after about 00Z. Expect dry conditions through
at least tonight, though high clouds will steadily increase from
south to north through the overnight hours as TD3 currently
off the FL/GA coast drifts northward. With the increasing cloud
cover, expecting the entire area to remain fog free tonight.

As we get into Sat, Hi-Res guidance is suggesting the potential
for 1-2 rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The first will be
associated with an incoming coastal trough with the second and
more likely round of showers and storms coming in the afternoon
and evening. Coverage will likely remain isolated to scattered
at best through the day Sat, but given the continued signal
across the Hi-Res guidance have now included PROB30 group for
showers at EWN/OAJ Sat morning as anywhere near the Crystal
Coast and southern OBX has the best chance to see this activity.
Have not included shower or tstm chances after 18Z but given the
current trends wouldn`t be shocked if this is added in future
updates. In addition to this, guidance suggests MVFR ceilings
begin to spread northwards and impact EWN/OAJ after about 18Z as
well.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 1:45 PM Friday...High confidence in periods of sub-VFR
conditions through the period with multiple rounds of moderate
to heavy rainfall probable from a developing offshore low.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Regional observations show primarily westerly
winds less than 15 kt and seas 2-3 feet this afternoon and
expect similar conditions through tonight. NE winds around
10-15 kt gradually veer to E to SE through the day Saturday with
seas building to 3-5 ft as swells from the developing low
pressure off of the Southeast coast begin to impact the waters.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Marine conditions continue to deteriorate
Saturday night through Sunday as a potential tropical system
off Southeast coast slowly lifts north into the Carolinas.
Current forecast calls for E to SE winds around 10-20 kt
Saturday night veering to the S Sunday and Monday while seas
build to 4-6 ft, then SW around 10-20 kt Tuesday with seas
subsiding to 3-4 ft. However, uncertainty remains with the
ultimate strength and track of the low off the Southeast coast
and subsequently the marine conditions so please follow the
forecast closely over the next several days as it could change.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...ZC
SHORT TERM...ZC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK