715
FXUS62 KMHX 041315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains anchored offshore through the weekend.
The next cold front then impacts the region early next week.
High pressure builds in from the west for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 915 AM Friday...

Key Messages:
 - Near record high temperatures expected today

Ridging surface and aloft remain centered off the Southeast
coast today and continue to bring warm and moist southerly flow
across the region. Low stratus has developed across much of ENC
early this morning, especially inland from the coast. The
stratus will gradually lift and scatter out through the morning
with filtered sunshine through high clouds this afternoon. With
the shallow nature of the moisture, dry mid levels and lack of
forcing, do not expect any measurable rain today, just a few
morning sprinkles. Low level thicknesses increase around 5-10m
over yesterday and expect highs a couple of degrees warmer with
highs in the mid to upper 80s inland but cool water temps will
keep coastal sections in the mid 70s to around 80. Current
forecast highs are within a couple degrees of record high temps,
which can be seen in the CLIMATE section below, and cannot rule
a couple locales tying or breaking a record, however, the high
clouds may be thick enough to limit maximum heating keeping
temps shy of records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Friday...High pressure remains anchored off the
Southeast coast tonight but a low pressure area will be moving
into the Canadian Maritimes today with a trailing cold front
pushing south across the the Mid-Atlantic as high pressure
builds into New England. The cold front is progged to push into
NE NC this evening and guidance has it stalling near the
Albemarle Sound before lifting back north late tonight. Isolated
to widely scattered showers will be possible along and north of
the front and continue to advertise slight chance PoPs across
far northern sections, but most areas will remain dry with low
stratus expected to develop again overnight with moist SW flow
continuing. Temps will continue to be mild with lows in the mid
to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM Fri...

Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures possible over the
weekend

Saturday...No significant changes to the forecast since the previous
update. Upper level pattern amplifies on Sat as a positively tilted
trough digs into the Western CONUS while upper ridging continues to
build across the Eastern CONUS. Upper trough does gradually push
E`wards into the Plains by Sun morning. At the mid levels and
surface, high pressure ridging will remain centered offshore in the
Sargasso Sea allowing for dry weather and steady SW`rly flow. At the
same time a stalled front to the north will lift further north as a
warm front with little fanfare. SW`rly flow will advect a warm and
moist airmass to ENC this weekend. Continued mid and upper level
moisture advection should bring fairly widespread cloud cover to ENC
Sat morning with skies clearing as we go through the afternoon.
Depending on how quickly the cloudcover dissipates will determine
how warm we get, but either way, with ongoing WAA, still expecting
temps to remain well above normal Sat. ECWMF EFI values remain close
to the 80th-90th percentile on Sat, while NAFES surface and 850 mb
temps remain around 1-2 SD above normal. This should allow
highs; at the very least to get to the mid to upper 80s inland
(with temps even approaching the low 90s inland if we see less
cloudcover) while the beaches and OBX see highs into upper 70s
to low 80s which will be near record to record setting for early
April. Not to be outdone, lows will remain elevated as well
only getting down into the 60s each night (see "Climate Section"
for more information).

Sunday and Monday...Upper level trough broadens as it continues
to push E`wards nearing the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the
mid levels, shortwave rounding the base of this trough also
pushes E`wards across the Deep South and nears the coast on Mon
while a second potent shortwave dives SE`wards across the Great
Lakes on Mon as upper level ridging finally begins to push
E`wards Sun into Mon further out into the Atlantic. At the
surface, a cold front will gradually push E`wards across the
Carolinas on Sun eventually pushing offshore by Mon night. This
front is expected to bring widespread cloudcover, rain, and
thunderstorms to ENC. Guidance continues to hint at Mon being
the primary day for precip and given the increased confidence in
precip now have categorical PoPs in the forecast for Monday.
One new challenge for the forecast will be how quickly the front
moves through the area. Recent trends on the GFS have sped up
the frontal progression, but given this appears to be an outlier
as both ECWMF and Canadian guidance keeps the front progression
slow didn`t change precip timing much as of this update, but
trends will need to be monitored.

Either way, most Global and Ensemble guidance suggests a rather
beneficial rain on Mon with QPF amounts increasing slightly with
rainfall totals of 1-3 locally 4+ inches now forecast with this
front. This may bring some minor flash flooding concerns to our
more urban areas especially if the higher end amounts do
materialize. Given the potential for higher end amounts, WPC has
placed the entire area under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Monday as well. Last of the well above normal temps
occurs on Sun with near record highs once again possible before
cloud cover and rain on Mon brings temps back down to normal.

Tuesday through Thursday...Broad upper troughing remains over
the Eastern Seaboard from Tue into midweek swinging the
proverbial temperature pendulum the complete opposite way with
temps forecast to be well below normal Tue and Wed with record
low temps possible Tue night which would bring frost concerns to
the Coastal Plain. Will note forecast confidence quickly
decreases towards the end of the period, as the upper level
pattern becomes more chaotic with differences in trough
orientation and potential shortwave progression which could
impact whether we see another round of precip later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Friday...High pressure centered off the Southeast
coast is continuing to bring warm, moist S to SW flow across
rtes through the short term. MVFR to isolated IFR cigs have
developed again early this morning. Cigs will slowly lift
after daybreak with VFR conditions expected by mid day. A back
door front will approach from the north tonight but is expected
to stall near the Albemarle Sound before lifting back north
late, however, nearly all of ENC will remain in moist SW flow.
Guidance indicating lower probs for sub VFR stratus tonight but
is still up to around 60 percent and given the airmass will be
essentially unchanged, expect MVFR to IFR stratus to develop
again tonight. Southwest winds will gust to around 20 kt mid
morning through the afternoon again today.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri... Sub-VFR conditions possible each morning
over the weekend as a warm and moist airmass will be in place
resulting in a general threat for low stratus. Low stratus
should mix out each day by midday bringing a return to VFR
conditions each afternoon and evening. SW`rly winds will be
breezy each day, though they will be the strongest on Sunday as
a cold front approaches from the west allowing for SW`rly winds
to gust closer to 20-25 kts at times Sun afternoon. Then expect
sub-VFR conditions Sunday night into Monday as a cold front
tracks across the region bringing widespread low clouds and
rain/thunderstorm activity to ENC. Visibilities could also be
reduced in any thunderstorm that impacts the region as well.
Front pushes offshore by Mon evening allowing clouds to clear
out from west to east on Tuesday bringing a return to VFR
conditions, though winds will become NW`rly on Tue behind the
front.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 915 AM Friday...No changes to previous thinking. High
pressure remains centered off the Southeast coast with SW-SSW
winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 3-5 ft continuing through
the short term. Cannot rule out an occasional gust to 25 kt or a
brief period of seas to 6 ft, especially across the outer
portions of the coastal waters near the Gulf Stream, but don`t
expect sufficient coverage/duration to warrant a Small Craft
Advisory at this time.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri... High pressure will remain centered offshore
through the weekend keeping winds SW`rly while a cold front
begins to approach from the west. Ongoing 10-15 kt SW`rly winds
and 3-5 ft seas will persist Sat morning with conditions
gradually beginning to deteriorate Sat night with the approach
of a cold front from the west. This front will act to tighten
the pressure gradient Sat night and on Sun resulting in SW`rly
winds increasing to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts
Sat evening and then to 20-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts
across all our waters by Sunday. Seas across our coastal waters
will also increase to 4 to 6 ft by Sun morning given the
elevated winds. This will likely bring small craft advisory
conditions to all of our waters between Sat night and Sunday.
Elevated winds and seas continue through Monday as SW`rly winds
remain around 15-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and seas
increase further to 4-7 ft. Cold front eventually tracks across
ENC and pushes offshore on Monday bringing widespread shower
and thunderstorm activity to our waters Sunday night into
Monday. Front eventually begins to push out to sea Monday
afternoon into Tuesday which should allow any ongoing rain and
thunderstorm activity to end by Tue morning while winds shift to
a NW`rly direction behind the front at 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 25 kts at times. Winds remain elevated into the end of the
period. Seas will also remain around 4-7 ft as well into the end
of the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High temps for Friday 04/04

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         92/1934  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1945  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       90/1967  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    80/2007  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1934  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1963  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Saturday 04/05

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         88/1942  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    79/1986  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       89/1986  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    82/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          91/1942  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     89/1986  (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for Sunday 04/06

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern         90/2010  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    78/1994  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       91/2010  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    83/1988  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          92/1929  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     87/2010  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...JME/SK/RCF
CLIMATE...MHX