922
FXUS62 KMHX 300812
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
412 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak boundary will stall over the area through tonight, moving
back south as a cold front late Tuesday. High pressure builds in
to close out the rest of the week. Another front will move
through the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 250 AM Mon...Latest analysis shows weak nearly stationary
boundary draped along Hwy 264 early this morning, as upper low
and Helene remnants begin to lift into the Mid-Atlantic. The
stalled front is forecast to stretch west to east across the
northern half of the area today. The combination of this
boundary plus the potential addition of the seabreeze should
lead to scattered to numerous showers and iso thunderstorms,
this afternoon and early evening. Despite dewpoints in the 70s,
poor mid-level lapse rates should keep instability meager
(MLCAPE <500 j/kg). Overall, this should keep the risk of strong
thunderstorms low. However, deep layer shear of 40kt+ is
noteworthy and should greater instability be realized, there is
potential for an iso stronger storm threat. Main threat would be
locally moderate to heavy rainfall, especially near the front.
With increased cloud cover and risk of showers/storms,
temperatures are expected will remain above normal, but a few
degrees cooler than yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Mon...Upper low and remnants of Helene will
continue to lift into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, while weak
stationary front lingers across eastern NC and weak low pressure
develops along it. Sct showers and iso storms likely ongoing
early this evening, with coverage waning through the night. Main
concern through early eve with be potential for locally
moderate to heavy rain. Areas of fog and stratus will be
possible again overnight. Above normal temps continue with lows
in the upper 60s to 70 deg.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Unsettled pattern to start the longterm with
a dry midweek front leading to slightly cooler temps and drier
pattern ahead of the next front which will impact the area this
weekend. Keeping close eyes on the potential for another
tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico the latter half
of this week.

Tuesday...PoPs will remain in the forecast through Tuesday as
waves of low pressure travel from W to E along the stalled front
that`s been lingering over ENC. These weak areas of
cyclogenesis and a shortwave aloft will nudge this boundary S
through the day. The boundary will be the focal point of weak
convection early over the Nern half of the FA. As the front sags
Sward through the morning, moisture convergence will be
amplified along and ahead of the seabreeze which will focus the
shower/tstorm activity along and S of the HWY70 corridor.

Mid to late-week...A northern stream wave will push a dry cold
front across the area on Wednesday as upper ridging builds
overhead from the S and SFC high pressure spills over the FA
from the N behind the departing cold front, supporting a dry
forecast with seasonal temps through Friday.

Weekend...The weekend will start with an upper trough digging
across the northeastern US and a cold front sliding across ENC
sometime on Saturday. This will be our next chance of shower
activity with chances greatest along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Mon...VFR conditions currently at the terminals
early this morning, with potential for areas of fog and stratus
to develop over the next few hours. Weak stationary front
currently draped right along Hwy 264, will slowly creep
southward with low stratus streaming in from the north behind
it. Ahead of the front (to the south), skies should remain
generally clear and with calm winds, fog is likely to set up.
The placement of low stratus vs fog is highly dependent on the
location of the front, and for that reason there is some
uncertainty in fog/stratus development over the next several
hours. All sites have the potential for IFR this morning. After
sunrise, fog will be slow to dissipate, clearing out by 13-14Z,
but low stratus could take a bit longer to scour out, especially
across the N/NE forecast area. During the afternoon, the
stalled front will combine with the seabreeze and weak
instability to support another chance of SHRA and TSRA. There is
also potential for more fog and stratus overnight.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 0400 Monday...Convection on a slowly Sward sinking
boundary Tuesday will present multiple opportunities for sub-
VFR conditions. VFR flight cats expected to prevail from
midweek on in drier air behind Wed`s dry FROPA. Rain chances not
returning to the forecast until the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Mon...Latest obs show variable winds 5-15 kt
ranging from NE across the northern waters to WSW across the
southern waters. A weak stationary front will linger across the
waters today, keeping winds 5-15 kt and directions variable.
Seas 2-3 ft today, building to 2-4 ft, possibly up to 5 ft
across the outer northern waters early Tue morning with
persistent NE-E flow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 0400 Monday...A stalled boundary slowly sinks Sward
through the day Tuesday with a wave of low pressure developing
along the boundary late, leading to increased N-Nerly swell
which is expected to generate SCA criteria seas. Winds generally
10-15kt, NEerly N of the boundary, SWerly to the S seas 2-4ft
early building to 2-5 through the day Tuesday. Showers and
tstorms possible along this boundary. Winds become more NEerly
10-20kt Wed persisting through Thursday. Seas will respond by
building to 6 ft across the northern and central waters by early
Wednesday and peaking around 7 ft by Wednesday afternoon. SCA
seas will likely continue through at least Thursday evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB