121
FXUS62 KMHX 192339
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
739 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough will gradually push offshore tonight
While at the same time high pressure will ridge southwards across
the Carolinas and remain entrenched across the Mid-Atlantic through
this weekend allowing for benign conditions across the area.
Next potential frontal system doesn`t near ENC until at least
midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7:30 PM Thursday...The showers are coming to an end as
the upper level trough pushes offshore and a ridge starts to
build in from the west. With all of the rain we have received
over the past few days, our boundary layer is very moist, which
will likely support the development of fog and low stratus
between midnight and sunrise. Overnight lows will dip to the mid
60s across the coastal plain and near 70 along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Mid/upper level trough continues to push
further offshore on Friday as high pressure starts to ridge
S`wards across the Carolinas. Decreased forcing and a drop in
PWATs will bring partly cloudy skies and generally dry
conditions to ENC to end our workweek. Some hi-res guidance is
trying to show a few isolated showers along the coastal plain in
the evening Friday, but continued to keep mentionable PoPs out
of the forecast for now given lack of forcing and expected
widespread dry air moving over the area. With light NE`rly flow
across the area temps get into the mid 70s to low 80s on Fri.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Mid/upper level trough moves offshore
Friday and ridging starts building in through the weekend as a
low spins up offshore to our northeast, gradually shifting to
our east. Seasonable (or just below) temps through the period
and generally dry through Tuesday.

The Weekend:
Dry conditions expected to start the weekend as ridging takes
over ENC. Low off the delmarva/NJ coast starts shifting south,
but there is still some model uncertainty on the strength of the
low and how close to us it reaches. Regardless it will be too
far away for any substantial impacts, but it could produce gusts
of 20-25 mph for OBX and some showers along and east of hwy 17
along a shortwave. This low could also produce high swell
impacting OBX beaches. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for
more information.

Monday-Wednesday:
Ridging and dry conditions continue through Wednesday. The high
over the SE starts weakening and a low trekking across the
great lakes region brings higher chances of rain to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 7:30 PM Thursday...Clouds and their subsequent showers are
diminishing as the sun goes down across ENC. Tonight presents
another opportunity for the development of fog and low stratus,
which is likely to impact all terminals. After midnight,
ceilings and visibilities will start to drop. Several areas
received a healthy amount of rainfall today and guidance backed
off on cloud cover, both of which increase confidence for more
widespread and impactful fog. Conditions should bottom out
between 9-12Z when visibility is expected to drop to at least
IFR if not LIFR. Conditions will improve after 12Z with flight
cats returning to VFR for the rest of the period with light
winds and scattered mid-level clouds.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...VFR conditions expected through the
long term, although Saturday morning could see some fog as skies
clear and winds calm.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Thurs... Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will persist across our waters mainly south of
Oregon Inlet today bringing a low end threat for some locally
enhanced winds and seas to the area. Otherwise with high
pressure ridging gradually building S`wards into the Carolinas
through Friday a 5-15 kt N-NE`rly wind with gusts up to 15-20
kts will persist across all waters through Friday. 3-5 ft seas
are currently noted across our coastal waters this afternoon and
shouldn`t change much through Friday, though it should be noted
seas are forcast to be on the increase late Fri afternoon or
early Fri evening as swell from a deepening non-tropical low to
the northeast begins to arrive.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...Sustained northerly winds increase to
10-15 kt Friday, near 15 kt Saturday, then 15-20 kt
Sunday/Monday. Winds have trended down a tad Sunday into Monday
morning, and while SCA conditions are likely, chances of gale
force winds have decreased to 10%. The strength of the winds
depends on the position and strength of the low developing
offshore to our northeast, and how strong the ridging pushing in
from the north is. Seas will be 2-4 ft Friday, 3-6 ft Saturday,
4-7 ft Sunday, and 4-9 ft Monday as gusty winds + the low
offshore results in higher swell. Waters off Crystal Coast and
coastal Onslow will be a bit protected from the more easterly
swell courtesy of Cape Lookout, and will be on the lower end of
these wave height ranges.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Thurs...Coastal flooding will continue to be a
risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle
through this weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect
for all oceanside coastal areas into SUnday mornings high tide.
Increased swell from a low offshore brings overwash risks late
this weekend into early next week for OBX.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Friday night to 2 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX