943
FXUS62 KMHX 160011
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
811 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry backdoor cold front sinks through area tonight allowing
high pressure to build in its wake. This high will anchor over
the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Another cold front will
move through the area Monday bringing our next chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...Northerly flow between low offshore
and high to the west is resulting in cool, cloudy conditions
across ENC. The stratus deck is slowly shifting east, with areas
west of hwy 17 seeing sunlight for the first time in what seems
like days. By the late evening, the rest of mainland ENC will
see generally clear skies, with OBX becoming clear overnight.
The persistent cloud cover has kept temps in the 60s, although
near and west of hwy 17 longer periods of sunlight will help
bring temps to the low 70s.

Tonight we have clear skies and light to calm winds inland to
start off. This will allow temps to drop pretty rapidly after
sunset. Where dewpoint depressions are the lowest and winds
become calm (inland locales east of hwy 17) there is a low end
threat for some minor shallow fog after 10pm that models are
struggling to pick up on. Any fog development will be short
lived, as a back door cold front moves through the region after
2am with high pressure building behind it. This front will mix
out lowest levels of the atmosphere, bringing cooler and drier
conditions to ENC for the rest of the work week. While temps
drop off quickly to start the night, increased mixing should
erode any low level inversion and keep temps from cratering too
much more after the back door cold front moves through.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...
Quiet day in store Thursday with clear skies, dry air advection,
and breezy northerly winds as high pressure builds into the
region. Highs in the mid to upper 60s inland, low to mid 60s for
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...

Key Messages...

- We turn breezy and cooler Friday with highs below normal and
  lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with
  above normal temps returning.

- Next chance of rain expected late Sunday night through Monday
  a cold front moves through

A cooler airmass continues building in Friday (highs in the
60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-
centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then
offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions.
The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early
Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across
the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 8 PM Wednesday...MVFR stratus has pushed off the coast
with clear skies and VFR conditions dominating and winds have
become calm/light as the low levels decouple. With low dewpoint
depressions, patchy shallow fog may develop mid to late evening
bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. A backdoor cold front
pushes south through the region after midnight bringing some
mixing and dry air advection so any fog that has developed will
quickly dissipate behind the front. VFR conditions dominate
Thursday with mainly clear skies and northerly winds gusting to
around 20 inland and 30 kt along the coast.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 310 PM Wednesday...Steady Nerly breezes persist. SCAs in
place for all coastal waters and PamSound. Winds pick back up
with another secondary Nerly surge of winds behind a dry
backdoor cold front that will sink through waters from N to S
after midnight tonight leading to another SCA for Roanoke,
Croatan, and Albemarle Sounds in addition to the Alligator
River. The mouth of the Neuse river could see wind gusts around
25 knots behind the cold front tonight, but there is less
confidence in the extent and duration of 25+ knot gusts. This
prevented me from issuing a SCA for the Neuse River with this
update, but it may be tacked on or a Marine Weather Statement
may be issued in a future update.

Seas 7-9ft Diamond Shoals N, 4-7ft Cape to Cape, 2-4ft
nearshore waters S of Lookout. Seas generally subside through
the evening while winds ease some, by sunset becoming 6-8ft,
4-6ft, 1-3ft for the same areas. Seas build yet again with the
uptick in Nerly winds overnight. Thursday should bring similar
ocean conditions with a mixture of swell from the low offshore
and breezy northerly winds.


LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wed...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through Friday with strong Small
   Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure
gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N
at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly
late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Winds
then increase ahead of a cold front Sunday to 15-25 kts. Seas
will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7
ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Wed...Persistent strong northerly winds will
continue this week keeping the potential for minor coastal
flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday.

Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible
adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon
south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns
will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially
Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high
water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with
up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-
     205.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Friday
     for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/SK
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX