Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
388 FXUS62 KMHX 111918 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 318 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread showers expected today as coastal trough and warm front lift through. More typical summertime weather regime returns from Tuesday onward with scattered afternoon showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages - Periods of heavy rainfall likely again this afternoon into this evening, which could lead to localized flooding. As of 1400 Monday...Soggy Monday for some with SFC high centered offshore to the NE and coastal troughing pushing ashore with weak warm front lifting Nward. Banded showers and iso tstorms have pushed inland with sun peaking out through scattered lighter showers over coastal locales. This morning`s 12Z sounding showed PWAT of 2.15in with near saturation through the bulk of the column and long skinny CAPE. Efficient warm rain processes have led to periods of heavy rain and weak midlevel ridging means storms motions will be slow. Localized flooding possible, especially where backbuilding storms park, as evident by the newly issued flood advisories over SWern zones where the weak warm front is. Below normal temps will continue with clouds and precip, with highs generally in the low 80s. Front and trough will dissipate tonight as low level flow becomes more Serly across the area. Expect convection to diminish with loss of heating this evening, best chances transitioning to the coastal waters and GStream overnight. Patchy inland fog and low stratus likely again overnight, with lows in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 1430 Monday...High pressure offshore gradually sinks Sward through the period with midlevel ridge expanding Wward over SECONUS leading to weak, but more defined Serly flow through the column. This will keep moisture content high, PWATs on the order of 2- 2.25in. An embedded shortwave/remnant MCV rides the Wward extent of the midlevel ridging from the FL panhandle through GA during the day. Expecting a similar precip pattern tomorrow, coastal showers pushing ashore early AM, with more robust convection developing and slowly working from SW to NE through the afternoon, dying off through the evening, with stronger storms lingering into the first half of the overnight. Have forecasted MaxTs higher than today with greater thicknesses building, but will probably end up very similar to today with showers/storms cooling things off. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Key Messages - Temps trend upwards through the week, peaking Thursday and Friday with heat indices 95-105F - Climatologically normal chances of precipitation return by mid-week. High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore Tuesday through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer pattern will develop as the offshore trough is kicked out to sea. More typical, isolated to scattered coverage precip chances expected from here as ridging and subsidence strengthen. Exception may be on Wednesday as a weak mid-level shortwave may support more expansive convection and Thursday as a weak front approaches the area. Temperatures return to around to slightly above average, and combined with increasing humidity peak heat indices hover around 100- 105 degrees Thursday. This weekend E/NE flow helps pin the sea breeze closer to the coast and ushers in a drier setup as high pressure dominates in the wake of Thursday`s front. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18Z Tuesday/... As of 1330 Monday...Cloudy conditions leading to mixed bag of mostly VFR CIGs but the MVFR lvl cloud deck will likely bounce in and out between BKN and SCT through the afternoon. Showers and tstorms leading to periods of IFR/LIFR. Best chance for VFR second half of today at coastal terminals. Background winds are relatively light out of the SE but showers and storms could lead to periods of gustier winds with VAR direction. Precip likely to diminish this evening, though widespread cloudiness expected to continue overnight. Patchy fog and low level stratus possible again, greatest chances of denser fog inland. MVFR overnight at best, with fog/low stratus keeping IFR in mix. Expecting VFR to return by midmorning, but skies remain BKN-OVC FL035-050, SSWerly winds AoB 8kt. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 345 PM Monday...Isolated to scattered tstorm chances each day through the long term, with best chances of more robust coverage Wednesday and Thursday afternoon/evening. Threat of low stratus and some fog continues each morning. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 1500 Monday...Winds generally out of the S AoB 10kt outside of convection with seas 2-3 ft. Expecting precip to be more stratiform this afternoon, becoming more convective overnight over the GStream. Forecasting a slightly stronger background wind field Tues, Serly 10-12kt. Showers and storms early push ashore leading to lighter stratiform rain from debris clouds, becoming mostly dry by late afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 300 PM Monday...More typical southwesterly winds by Tuesday onward as high pressure offshore sinks Sward. Winds through the period stay at 10-15 kt and seas will hold steady at around 2-3 feet. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...RCF/RJ AVIATION...CEB MARINE...CEB/RJ