578
FXUS62 KMHX 112326
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
General summertime troughing is expected to remain in place
through early next.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Friday...

Key Messages

 - Thunderstorm risk expected to be focused along the coast
   through this evening
 - Patchy fog possible late tonight/early Saturday morning

With mid-level ridging to our west, westerly flow aloft is
ushering in drier air. This flow should help keep today`s
seabreeze pinned closer to the coast and keep the majority of
shower and thunderstorm development east of Highway 17. According
to the latest SPC mesoanalysis, the heating of our residually
moist boundary layer has generated 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across our CWA. Although this is plenty of instability to
generate some stronger updrafts, deep layer shear is very low,
which will limit the possibility of storms becoming severe.
However, with drier air aloft today, storms may be able to
produce some stronger gusts. The bigger story is the potential
for more heavy rain IF storms are able to develop. With PWATs
still 2+" east of Highway 17, any storm will be capable of
producing torrential rain and localized flooding. Yesterday`s
heavy rain caused flooding across the NOBX and Onslow County, so
these areas will be most susceptible to flooding today if
convection is able to develop.

Things will quiet down after sunset with attention then turning
to the potential for fog late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
With a moist boundary layer, light winds, and mostly clear
skies, radiation fog may develop across the coastal plain but
should burn off shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning. Lows
tonight will be in the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 2:15 PM Friday...

A building mid-level ridge and drier air aloft will keep shower
and thunderstorm coverage even more scattered tomorrow with
diurnal activity likely limited to sea/river/sound breezes.
Although PWATs will be slightly lower than today (1.5-2"), heavy
rain will still be possible from any stronger storm that
develops. WPC has the entire area outlined in a Marginal Risk
(level 1/4) for excessive rainfall (at least a 5% chance of
flash flooding). We`ll destabilize with afternoon heating and
develop 1000-2000+ J/kg but shear will be lacking once again, so
the threat for storms to become severe is low.

Slightly warmer temps tomorrow (mid-80s to low-90s) will pair
with dewpoints in the mid-70s to generate heat indices in the
mid-90s to low-100s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...We remain in a summer like pattern through the
long term period with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Upper level trough in the High Plains on Sat will
gradually push E`wards into the Northeast by early next week.
While upper level ridging off the coast of the Southeast
retrogrades westwards into the Deep South with the approach of
an upper level low. As we get into mid to late next week,
another upper trough pushes across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast while upper ridging becomes entrenched across the Deep
South, and the previously mentioned upper low becomes
stationary near the Bahamas. At the mid levels, we will have
multiple weak mid level shortwaves track across the Carolinas on
Sat and Sun with a stronger mid level shortwave then pushing
into the area on Mon into Tue eventually stalling across the
Eastern Seaboard through about midweek.

We will see a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms on
and Sun. PWATs generally remain around 1.5-2.0 inches through
the weekend, and this will be relatively low compared to
previous days as some dry air associated with an approaching
backdoor cold front infiltrates the area. This dry air will also
likely limit shower and thunderstorm coverage this weekend with
any sea/lake/sound breezes being the primary driver of
convective activity given the lack of significant forcing. One
caveat to this, is that we could see some enhanced convergence
along a weak backdoor front on Sat which could bring higher than
currently forecast shower and thunderstorm chances on Sat
before the boundary dissipates. Moisture then pools and PWATs
surge to greater than 2 inches across the area early next week
as the previously mentioned incoming shortwave early next week
pulls moisture northwards from the Gulf. This will result in a
better chance at more widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity as better forcing overspreads ENC. With PWATS remaining
elevated and having ample deep layer moisture in place, any
thunderstorm that develops over the next few days will bring a
threat for heavy to excessive rainfall. Combined with the
already wet ground from previous days activity, there will at
least be a low end threat for some isolated flash flooding. As a
result, WPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall this weekend. While there will be a lack of
wind shear across ENC over the next several days, 1000-3000 J/kg
of MLCAPE is forecast to be in place each day bringing the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts within the strongest storms.

High temps each day range from the upper 80s to low 90s with the
hottest temps over the weekend. While we are not expected to
reach heat advisory criteria this weekend, with heat indices
around 100-105 F on Sat and Sun, any prolonged outdoor exposure
could become hazardous to more vulnerable groups. Lows through
the entire long term remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 725 PM Fri...

Key Messages

 - BR/MIFG possible late tonight/early Saturday morning

 - Scattered TSRA possible Saturday

VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC as isolated convection
quickly wanes with loss of heating. With a moist boundary
layer, light winds, and mostly clear skies, radiation fog may
develop across the coastal plain early tomorrow morning.
LAMP guidance has trended a little more aggressively towards
favoring fog since the 18z cycle, and only change was to expand
MIFG to EWN and have an earlier start time. Fog should burn off
shortly after sunrise with light variable winds and
few/scattered low clouds lingering.

Convective chances once again return tomorrow afternoon, focused
primarily along the seabreeze and advancing northward through
the day. Coverage will be isolated to widely scattered at best
with a negligible severe risk.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Several mid level shortwaves will track across
ENC through early next week. This will continue to bring a
daily threat for showers and thunderstorms as well as sub-VFR
conditions. Reduced vis and ceilings from this activity is
possible. Though will note, best chances to see shower and
thunderstorm activity will be on Mon/Tue as the strongest in a
set of mid level shortwaves pushes through the area and moisture
pools out ahead of it. If it does rain then there will also be
a fog and low stratus threat each night as well for areas that
see meaningful rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 1:40 PM Friday...10-15 kt SW winds will persist until
early tomorrow morning when a weak backdoor cold front will veer
the winds north of Cape Hatteras to the north by sunrise and to
the east by the afternoon. Winds will be lighter in the morning
(5-10 kt) but increase to ~10 kt in the afternoon. Seas will be
3-4 ft through tomorrow morning and then decrease to 2-3 by
tomorrow afternoon. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible today with
lower chances tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...With little change in the surface pattern
through this weekend and early next week, expect rather benign
boating conditions across our waters through the period. Winds
become SW`rly across all waters at 5-10 kts by Sun as
aforementioned back door cold front dissipates. Winds change
little into Tuesday. Seas persist around 2-4 ft with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms continuing as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ204-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...RCF/OJC