127
FXUS62 KMHX 222131
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
431 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly ridges into the area tonight with another
weak low offshore lifting off the coast Thursday. High pressure
builds back into the area late week bringing dry conditions and a
gradual warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Coldest night of the year for many locations. Cold Weather
   Advisory in effect for wind chill values as low as 5 above.

 - Slick and hazardous roads due to lingering snowpack and
   black ice.

 - Light freezing rain or freezing drizzle possible east of
   Highway 17 after midnight.

Low pressure continues to lift well away from the area this
afternoon but still seeing some lingering snow showers along the
OBX south of Avon as well as Down East Carteret County. Little
additional accumulation is expected and expect it to wrap up in
the next couple of hours.

Afternoon sunshine across most of the area, except coastal
areas where snow is lingering, has brought some melting but
temps never reached freezing and once the sun sets any melting
will quickly refreeze with hazardous driving conditions
persisting into Thursday...at least. Have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for black ice across all of ENC.

With a solid snow pack across the region and initially clear
skies, temps will plummet quickly into the teens after sunset
away from the coast. A light breeze and lingering/developing
cloud cover will keep temps in the 20s along the immediate
coast. Lows tonight expected around 10-15 degrees inland and
15-20 degrees closer to the coast. OBX will have the warmest
overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. Have issued a Cold
Weather Advisory for all but the OBX tonight through mid-morning
Thursday.

A weak shortwave will approach late tonight and will see a
strengthening coastal trough with a weak low pressure area
developing east of Cape Hatteras toward daybreak. Model
soundings show increasing low level moisture below 850mb and
expect increasing low clouds after midnight, especially near the
coast. Some guidance is bringing light precipitation as well.
With saturation well below the DGZ and an above freezing warm
nose, any precip falling will be liquid and would bring a
freezing rain or drizzle threat. Confidence is low whether it
will occur but given the added impact to the black ice, included
mention of it in the Winter Weather Advisory. Locations east of
Highway 17 have the better chance to see freezing rain/drizzle
with coastal locations having the highest chance, but still only
advertising a 20-30 percent chance in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 410 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Treacherous driving conditions for the morning commute with
   snow packed roads and black ice.

 - Freezing rain/drizzle threat continues near the coast in the
   morning.

Low pressure will lift north off the northern NC coast Thursday
with a threat for light freezing rain or drizzle continuing east
of highway 17 through the morning. Temps will warm slowly with
mostly cloudy skies persisting much of the day but temps are
expected to rise above freezing during the afternoon with highs
in the mid to upper 30s and some locations along the OBX may top
out just above 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Snow melt Thursday and Friday will refreeze Thursday night and
   Friday night, resulting in black ice concerns.

 - Relatively warmer weekend in store

Friday-Monday: Warmer and drier weather is expected through the
weekend as high pressure builds in. The next chance of
precipitation will be on Monday as the next cold front
approaches but moisture is limited and not all guidance is
indicating precipitation with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
As of 130 PM Wed...VFR conditions expected to continue at the
TAF sites through much of the evening, though MVFR cigs will
persist along the coast. A weak mid-level system will move
across the area late tonight with a weak low pressure area
developing off the coast and lifting north Thursday. Increasing
low level moisture could bring MVFR cigs at most terminals
overnight into Thursday. Probabilities highest closer to the
coast though model soundings show MVFR cigs possible at inland
TAF sites as well. Northerly winds will gusts to around 20 kt
inland and 30 kt along the coast through the afternoon, then
light winds expected tonight and Thursday.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...Expect mainly VFR conditions through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 430 PM Wednesday...Nly winds around 15-25 kt with gusts to
around 30 kt continues across the waters. Some gusts to Gales
continues over/near the Gulf Stream. Winds will continue to
diminish through the short term becoming NNW around 10-15 kt on
Thursday. Seas currently around 6-11 ft will slowly subside
through the period and expect sub-6 ft seas by Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/...
As of 335 AM Wednesday...Elevated seas will persist into Thu
evening when they will briefly subside below 6 ft. Moderate N
flow 10-20 kt will continue on Thu with seas mostly 3-5 ft with
6 ft seas expected over the outer central waters. Winds will be
N 10-15 kt Sat then W 10-15 kt Sunday. Seas will be 3-5 ft Sat
and 2-4 ft Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for 01/23 (Thursday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern        13/1985      (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras   12/1970      (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      10/1985      (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City   12/1970      (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston          8/1970      (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville    15/1970      (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-
     198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Thursday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/MS
SHORT TERM...SK/MS
LONG TERM...JME/MS
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK
CLIMATE...MHX