383
FXUS62 KMHX 021048
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
648 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain wedged over the mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas for yet another day, abutting a stalled frontal
boundary and low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast.
Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the
area mid to late week. A cold front will move through the area
this weekend, with high pressure building in late weekend into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 240 AM Tue...Overall weather pattern has remained stagnant
over the past 24 hours with broad mid-level cyclone aloft
continuing to dominate conditions over the eastern CONUS. At the
surface, wedge of high pressure remains firmly entrenched
across the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, buttressed against a
stalled frontal boundary a few hundred miles offshore. Like
yesterday, the pressure gradient is keeping a steady NE flow in
place, especially along OBX where winds sit at 15-20 mph
sustained. A few spotty showers linger offshore but shouldn`t
pose a threat to any inland areas.

The overall upper pattern will begin to shift somewhat today as
a strong shortwave trough, currently situated over the northern
prairies of Canada, dives southward towards the Great Lakes.
This feature is forecast to get absorbed by the current mid-
level cyclone, resulting in troughing deepening further over the
eastern CONUS. Also of note is a wave of low pressure currently
off the southeastern coast of FL, forecast to gradually migrate
along the stalled offshore front. High pressure wedge will
persist today and keep this low and its attendant moisture well
away from the Carolina coastline. After advertising at least
some precip risk yesterday, CAMs overnight have backed off on
precipitation forecasts for today, showing only a few iso
showers and storms well offshore - much like what we saw today.
With a persistence forecast likely a safe bet given the stagnant
pattern, opted to continue with a dry forecast today with partly
cloudy skies. Deepening trough aloft means below average
temperatures, settling in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Tue...Trough continues to deepen aloft while wedge
remains in place and offshore low continues to lift
northeastward. Like tonight, some spotty showers likely to be
ongoing offshore and may approach the immediate coast but
probability was too low to mention in forecast this morning.
Otherwise, dry conditions expected under partly clear skies.
Lows once again fall into the upper 50s inland, low to mid 60s
along the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Temperatures gradually warming late week into Saturday

 - Mostly dry this week, with precip chances increasing this
   weekend into early next week

Wednesday through Friday...The pattern will remain active with
sfc high pressure ridging in from the NE, upper troughing over
the eastern US while multiple shortwaves pivot through. Weak
cold front will approach the area Thu night and Friday, though
will likely stall and dissipate to the west. Despite the
pattern, looks to remain mostly dry over eastern NC, with only
potential for isolated showers. Temps remain below avg Wed
gradually warming closer to climo by the end of the week as
NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses
increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland Fri.

Saturday through Monday...Complex low pressure system will
continue to push through Canada, while upper trough pivots
through the eastern US, and cold front approaches from the west.
Still some timing differences with the frontal passage, but
general consensus at this time looks like Saturday night into
early Sunday. Ahead of the front Saturday, moist SSW flow will
allow for temps to warm into the low 90s inland and mid/upper
80s along the coast. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms will be possible Sat and Sat night. Svr risk looks low at
this time. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday
and early next week. Post frontal NE flow will allow for drier
and cooler air to filter back into the region. High temps will
fall back into the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 60s-70
deg. Sct showers and iso storms Sun into early next week, with
highest chances during peak heating. Instability will remain
limited with onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wed/...
As of 650 AM Tues...VFR flight cats prevail across all TAF
terminals early this morning as wedge of high pressure remains
in control inland and stalled frontal boundary continues to
linger offshore. Some brief periods of decoupling did occur at
PGV and ISO but patchy fog failed to materialize, and that
threat now ends as the sun continues to rise. Flying conditions
after sunrise similar to yesterday with diurnal cu developing
after 16z in steady northeasterly winds up to 10 kts, although
likely not quite as gusty.

More widespread light and variable winds likely inland tonight
as pressure gradient eases with the approach of low pressure
along the coast, and the wedge eroding ahead of a cold front
diving out of the Great Lakes. Overall moisture content changes
little, but some nuisance fog is possible. LAMP is insistent on
a low stratus and fog bank in the vicinity of ISO/PGV, but it
also showed this same signal last night and in a persistent
regime we remain skeptical of this guidance. Opted to keep TAFs
clean of flight restrictions this cycle.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Tue...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. While probs remains low, there will be potential for
patchy sub-VFR fog and/or stratus each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 300 AM Tue...Boating conditions remain poor this morning
with little change in the overall weather pattern from yesterday
as high pressure wedge remains inland and stalled front lingers
offshore. Northeast gradient flow has eased somewhat compared to
yesterday but still sits at 15-20 kt with higher gusts,
especially across the outer waters. Seas remain stubbornly
elevated, sitting at 5-7 feet.

Little change in winds is expected through the rest of this
morning. Winds will begin to ease ever so slightly through the
day and into tomorrow as low pressure off the coast of FL lifts
northeastward along the frontal boundary, which itself will
begin to migrate further offshore. This will give seas room to
subside further, and the forecast calls for SCA seas to come to
an end shortly after midnight.

The main change to headlines was to allow SCA for the Pamlico
Sound to expire. Offshore SCAs for seas remain until 06z Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 215 AM Tue...NNE winds 10-20 kt will grad ease to 5-15 kt
through the day Wed with seas 3-5 ft subsiding to 2-4 ft, as
high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds expected to remain
light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri and Sat
as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas will remain at
2-4 ft late Wed into the first part of the weekend.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199-
     203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS