466
FXUS62 KMHX 120820
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
420 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low will continue to bring an extended period of
unsettled weather to the area through mid week. This system will
eventually weaken and dissipate by then, with a ridge of high
pressure building in behind it by late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 4 AM Mon...An upper level low over the Deep South will
become negatively tilted today allowing for deep moist
convergence across ENC. Increasing lapse rates in the vicinity
of the upper level low will enable developing instability
despite only tepid surface heating. ML CAPE vals only in the
500 - 1,000 J/KG range however, so no severe expected. High PW`s
approaching 2" will pose a threat for areas of heavy rain, esp
where some banding of heavy showers or storms occur. A long
standing moderate drought is in place across most of ENC, so no
severe flooding is expected. With LPPM vals reaching or
exceeding 5" for swrn zones, there is some flood threat despite
the drought conditions, and thus have hoisted a flood watch for
these areas. This lines up where periodic sfc ThetaE vals are
highest and layer streamlines converge, and is the reasoning for
the watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 AM Mon...A break in the heavier rain rates through first
part of the evening, before reinvigoration of heavier rain rates
arrives after 6Z with frontal forcing arriving first in the
Coastal Plain counties, and then further east towards daybreak
Tue. Heaviest rain rates are expected late tonight for the
watch area, and will extend through the night and first half of
Tue for this reason. Generally expecting widespread 2-3" for
most of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to 5" for the
counties in the watch. Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so
are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 AM Monday...

Aloft: An upper low will become progressively more negatively tilted
on Tuesday as it digs northeast across the OH River Valley. By late
Wednesday, this upper low will become absorbed into the shortwave
across the Mid-Atlantic states. The axis of the upper trough will
traverse ENC late Wednesday/early Thursday with weak upper ridging
briefly building in it`s wake. A weak, quick hitting shortwave will
pass Friday night followed by another, slightly stronger shortwave
on Saturday with zonal flow taking over on Sunday.

Surface: At the surface, an occluded low will move northeast into
the OH River Valley with an additional low forming over western NC
in response to the upper trough becoming increasingly negatively
tilted. The warm front associated with the latter surface low will
lift north across ENC Tuesday into Wednesday, putting us firmly in
the warm sector. From there, the next FROPA won`t be until Saturday,
although not much of an airmass change is expected.

Tuesday - Wednesday...The axis of greatest moisture will become more
progressive through the day on Tuesday, shifting the area of
heaviest rain from the southwestern counties in the morning to the
OBX by the afternoon. Given PWATs around 2" and the heavy rain
already occurring ahead of Tuesday`s round, flooding will be a
concern, especially for areas south of US 70. The antecedent surface
conditions will work in our favor given the ongoing drought, but
efficient rain rates may still cause issues. Therefore, a Flood
Watch has been issued for Greene, Lenoir, Jones, Duplin, and Onslow
Counties and is currently in effect until 18Z Tuesday. Plenty of
moisture and lift will remain in the area on Wednesday, which will
support the continuation of likely to categorical PoPs.
Thunderstorms will be likely in the afternoon, especially along any
seabreeze boundary. And with a slightly drier column, rain rates
will not be as efficient as they will be on Tuesday.

Thursday - Sunday...Towards the end of the week, we`ll return to a
typical summertime pattern with daily chances of isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will steadily
climb through the week, reaching the 90s across the coastal plain
Friday and Saturday. These temps, accompanied by dews in the low-
70s, will generate heat indices ranging from 95-100+.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Increasing low level moisture and advancing
rain showers from the south will lead to lowering CIGs, with
MVFR conditions likely at all TAF sites before sunrise. Local
IFR possible for wrn TAF sites through first part of today.
Precip coverage and intensity will increase tomorrow from SSW to
NNE, and MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the
day, with some periods of IFR conditions possible in the
heaviest downpours. Increasing chances for sporadic lightning
after sunrise as well, and a prob30 for thunder in place today.
A break in the heavier showers first part of tonight, before
heavy showers and inc thunderstorm chances from the west late
tonight towards dawn Tue.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3:50 AM Monday...Prolonged periods of sub-VFR conditions
are possible throughout the period given the active pattern at
play. The heaviest rain will occur on Tuesday, but daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms will persist.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 4 AM Mon...Winds will be generally, SE at 10-15 kts
through tonight, and then increase to SE 15-20 kts with frequent
gusts to 25+ kts starting this afternoon first for the coastal
waters south of Oregon Inlet, and then Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke
sounds tonight. Seas will be 2-5 ft through the morning, and
then increase to 4-6 ft this afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 3:55 AM Monday...Dangerous boating conditions will persist
through Tuesday. 15-25 kt southeasterly winds will gust to 25-30 kt
on Tuesday with seas building to 6-8 ft. By Wednesday morning, the
winds will have veered to the southwest, decreasing to 5-15 kt and
seas dropping to 3-4 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 4 AM Mon...Storm total rainfall is expected to be in the
2-3" range for much of ENC, though an axis of 3-4", locally to
5" for Duplin, Onslow, Jones, Lenoir, and Greene counties, where
a flood watch is in effect through early Tuesday afternoon.
Towards the OBX, lower amts of 1-2" or so are expected.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NCZ079-090>092-198-199.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...TL/OJC
MARINE...TL/OJC
HYDROLOGY...MHX