429
FXUS62 KMHX 070908
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
408 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will produce well above normal
temperatures and humid conditions through late week. A trough
of low pressure and cold front will bring some rain today into
Friday. High pressure then rebuilds offshore this weekend, with
a cold front moving through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...High pressure offshore is bringing
unseasonably warm and humid conditions with Tds in the upper 60s
to 70 in ENC. Meanwhile to our south over SC and GA an inverted
trough is providing enough forcing for heavy rain and
thunderstorms. Increasing cloudiness and eventually some
showers are anticipated to spread into ENC today from this
inverted trough. We have some mid level subsidence from the high
offshore shielding ENC from rainfall as of 3am, but the
expectation is over the next 3-6 hours the wall erodes a bit and
precip enters the region. Rainfall totals are expected to
remain generally light through the day, with a mid level dry
layer and weak instability preventing any heavy, impactful
rainfall from occuring. The only exception for this could be
along the Crystal Coast where a weak sea breeze develops,
providing additional forcing, maybe even enough to overcome the
lack of instability and bring some heavier showers, albeit
isolated and brief. Thunder chances remain low through the CWA
today, but elevated instability, although weak, could result in
a few rumbles of thunder. For this reason have kept the Iso
thunder mention in the forecast for the afternoon. While
rainfall is still in the forecast, have cut back on PoPs a bit
for this evening and tonight as we could see a break in rain
before a front moves through early Friday. It will feel somewhat
summery with these higher TD`s producing muggy conditions with
highs in the upper 70s today.

In addition to the shower activity there is widespread low
clouds and areas of fog developing through this morning,
especially along hwy 17 and inland sounds and rivers. How far
north and east this fog extends is uncertain, but Onslow county
has been reporting visibility reductions for a couple hours now
and is expected to only worsen as we approach sunrise. Lows
will be very warm for this time of year, and in fact will be
close to the normal highs for the second week of November, with
readings in the mid/upr 60s area- wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...Rainfall coverage and intensity
diminishes rapidly overnight, and we may even be precip free
during the first half of the short term. Still carrying
mentionable PoPs, but trended down from the previous forecast
through 3-4am. A the end of the short term a front approaches
the region from the north, and as a result PoPs tick up a tad
during the early morning hours Friday. Lows Thursday night are
in the low to mid 60s, slightly less muggy compared to this
morning but still unpleasant (unless if you like muggy weather
in November, won`t judge too much). Fog potential again Thursday
night but still too much uncertainty at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...The cold front will continue to slowly
sag south across the area Friday into Friday evening, then
accelerates south of the area after midnight as high pressure
builds in from the north. A few light showers may linger during
the day Friday but additional rainfall amounts will be light.
Temps continue well above normal Friday with highs in the mid
to upper 70s, except northern OBX where highs expected in the
lower 70s. CAA ramps up late Friday night into Saturday with
lows in the low to mid 50s. Temps Saturday will be near to
slightly below normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s under
mainly sunny skies.

High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weakening upper low
lifts across the Great Lakes with the attendant cold
approaching from the northwest. This system may tap into
tropical moisture from Hurricane Rafael in the southern Gulf of
Mexico but there remains considerable uncertainty with the
timing and track of both the tropical system and the larger
scale system lifting north of the area. At this time best precip
chances appear to be late Sunday night into Monday. Southerly
return flow will warm temps Sunday and Monday with highs
expected in the low to mid 70s. The front is currently progged
to push trough the area Monday night with high pressure building
in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday and an upper ridge
building in from the west. Dry weather with prevail with NE flow
bringing a slight cool down with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1230 AM Thursday...
TL;DR:
-Fog and low stratus tonight (highest chances along and east of
 hwy 17)
-MVFR CIGs and VCSH in the daytime today with low chances of
 thunder

IFR/LIFR VIS has already initiated in Onslow county, and
is expected to extend north and eastward through the remainder
of tonight. Crossover temps from the afternoon mixing were in
the low 60s west of hwy 17, and mid 60s along and east of hwy
17. With anomalously high Tds and easier to reach crossover
temps along and east of hwy 17, this region has the best shot of
seeing prolonged sub-MVFR conditions through the early morning
hours. For this reason, hit OAJ the hardest with LIFR fog
becoming VLIFR just before sunrise. EWN TAFs are forecast to be
as low as 1SM early this morning, but a further drop to sub 1SM
is still in play, especially around sunrise. PGV and ISO
conditions will be a bit better as those crossover temps are
harder to reach with BKN to OVC skies. Still predominant MVFR
with TEMPO groups bringing VIS down to IFR is forecast for early
this morning.

In addition to the fog threat, there is also low stratus which
could develop tonight (as low as 400-700ft through tonight into
the early morning hours. BKN upper clouds will persist through
the night originating from the inverted trough and associated
convection to our south and west. As this trough moves closer to
us, lower CIGs and VCSH chances increase leading to predominant
MVFR conditions through the first half of the day before
ceilings lift with some mixing in the afternoon. Still, MVFR
CIGs in showers could exist despite the mixing. While
instability will remain limited with ample cloud cover, the
increased moisture could keep us unstable enough for a few
rumbles of thunder. The low chances prevented me from including
VCTS in the TAFs at this time.


LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 345 AM Thursday...A cold front slowly pushes south across
the area Friday with a few lingering light showers possible.
Sub-VFR conditions may linger through the morning hours but
expect gradually improving conditions expected through the day.
High pressure building back into the area Friday and Saturday,
then slides offshore Sunday with pred VFR conditions expected.
Another cold front approaches early next week with precip
chances increasing Sunday night and Monday with sub-VFR
conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday Night/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Biggest concern in the near term is
radiational fog potential for inland sounds and rivers this
morning. Winds are starting to weaken, and if they become calm
enough we have plenty of low level moisture for fog development.
This could result in hazardous marine conditions this morning
should it develop. With overcast skies satellite is no help in
detecting fog, so will have to wait for daylight to observe
webcams before issuing any marine Dense Fog Advisories if
needed. Otherwise, though SW winds remain light at 5-10 kt, seas
remain at 3-5 ft. Southerly winds will persist light at 5-10 kt
through Thursday night with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft. As we
transition to the long term Friday morning a cold front with
N`rly winds behind it will be approaching from the north.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...A cold front will slowly push across the
waters Friday with light winds becoming nly around 10-15 kt with
seas around 2-4 ft. A stronger surge develops late Friday night
and Saturday as gradients tighten with high pressure building in
from the north with N-NE winds around 15-25 kt with gust to 30
kt and seas building up to 4-7 ft. The high migrates offshore
Sunday with Ely winds around 10 kt or less veering to SE and S
throughout the day. Gradients tighten Sunday night and Monday
ahead of the next cold front approaching with sly winds
increasing to 10-15 kt, becoming SW on Monday and seas around
3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ