533
FXUS62 KMHX 150830
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
330 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Developing low pressure along the southern Outer Banks early
this morning will move offshore today bringing strong winds, and
significant coastal impacts. A ridge of high pressure will then
build into the Carolinas this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Today/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Surface low vicinity of the southern Outer
Banks early this morning continues to deepen and will slowly
progress eastward and offshore throughout today. Associated band
of enhanced precipitation currently along the Outer Banks
continues to push east and should be offshore by 12Z. As the low
pushes offshore later this morning, an area of wrap around
light rain and drizzle that will occur mainly east of Highway 17
for the morning hours. The rain should end by noon with windy
but dry conditions expected across the entire area this
afternoon.

The main concern today will a period of strong northerly winds
that will develop along coastal eastern NC as the low moves
offshore this morning. The strongest winds will occur over
Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands where gusts to 60 mph are expected
this morning into early afternoon. While winds across the
northern Outer Banks are still expected to be strong, we are now
expecting peak gusts there to be around 50 mph as the surface
low has tracked a little further south than earlier forecast so
the High Wind Warning was downgraded to a Wind Advisory. The
Wind Advisory will be continued eastern Carteret County for
similar gusts to 50 mph today. Further inland, the further south
low track will decrease peak wind gusts to 40-45 so the Wind
Advisories were cancelled.

The strong northerly winds will produce coastal flooding
adjacent to the Pamlico Sound as well as oceanside today and
continue into Saturday. Please the coastal flood section below
for more details.

Widespread low clouds blanketing the area this morning will
begin to lift this afternoon with gradual clearing western
areas towards early evening. Winds will also be slowly
decreasing this afternoon as the low moves well off of the
coast.

Expect cool temps today with the light rain/clouds/gusty nrly
winds, producing highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Winds will continue to diminish and clouds
clear as high pressure builds over the area from the north. Lows
will range from the low 40s inland to the low 50s immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...High pressure builds in for the weekend to
early next week bringing seasonable temperatures and dry weather
to the region.

Saturday through Monday...Another ridge of high pressure begins
to build in from the west this weekend into early next week
with dry weather expected. Temps will be near climo through this
period with highs in the 65-70 degree range and lows in the
lower 40s for most.

Tuesday through Wednesday...The ridge of high pres amplifies and
sfc high traverses south of the region during this period, with
temps warming back to above climo, into the 70s and lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Conditions still appear to remain mostly
dry, though an approaching cold front may bring a small shower
threat. However, the GOM will be cut off from this quick moving
low amplitude system, and will therefore not be much moisture to
work with. Have silent 20 pops in the grids for now.

Thursday...Aforementioned front will have passed through, and
gusty wsw winds in it`s wake are expected as tightened gradient
will be in place. Weather appears to remain on the dry side with
low RH`s expected and seasonable highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Low pressure along the coast early this
morning will move offshore throughout today. Widespread low
clouds producing IFR ceilings and very light rain were occurring
across the area early this morning. The light precipitation
will dissipate by mid morning. The IFR ceilings will rise to
MVFR by early afternoon with VFR conditions expected by early
evening as high pressure builds in from the north. Northerly
winds will gust to 20-25 kt into this afternoon then diminish
late this afternoon becoming light early this evening.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...VFR conditions expected with light winds
returning. Exception will be Sat, where some gusty nwrly winds
expected in the 15-20 mph range.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 310 AM Fri...Mariners are advised to prepare for a period
of extreme winds and dangerous marine conditions today and
tonight as developing low pressure moves off the coast and out
to sea. Storm Force to Gale Force winds and seas around 15 ft
are currently expected over the eastern NC waters today. The
Storm and Gale Force northerly winds will diminish this evening
as high pressure builds into the waters but will remain strong
at 20-30 kt. Seas will remain elevated and dangerous tonight 4-8
ft near shore and 8-12 ft offshore.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Gusty nwrly winds in the SCA range expected
for Sat, then winds and seas should drop below SCA for Sun into
Mon. Tuesday will be the best boating day with ridge of high
pres nearby with light winds less than 10 kt and seas of 2-4 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 AM Fri...Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories and High
Surf Adv cont in effect. High astronomical King tides are
expected through this weekend. Low pressure will be rapidly
intensifying off the OBX this morning, and will lead to
potentially dangerous rapid water level rises on the OBX due to
waters from the Pamlico Sound as easterly winds switch to north.
Moderate to locally major oceanside and soundside coastal
flooding (inundation 2-4 ft agl), ocean overwash, beach erosion
and dangerous surf are all likely, with conditions peaking
Friday. Greatest impacts likely along the Outer Banks, with more
minor impacts (1-2 ft agl) along the Crystal Coast.

Minor coastal flooding may continue into the weekend due to the
high astronomical tides.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NCZ094-
     194.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM EST this
     afternoon for NCZ196.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ203.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ203>205.
     High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ204-205.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131-136-137-
     230.
     Storm Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-154-156.
     Storm Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ158.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX