


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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976 FXUS62 KMHX 140721 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 321 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today and will anchor over the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. A cold front will move through the area by next Monday bringing a chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 0230 Tuesday...The two SFC lows off the East Coast begin to consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward to merge with the Sern low and move well off the NC coast. Continue to carry Chc PoPs for coastal areas, highest OBX zones. Much lesser chances for rain further west towards the Coastal Plain, where 20% or less is advertised. Have added mention of patchy to areas of light drizzle for the lower PoP areas. It will be overcast again, even for areas that don`t see much rain, so little warming is expected, MaxTs in mid to upper 60s. With the offshore low(s) moving southward off the NC coast, an inc in the northerly gradient will bring gusty winds to the coast, with speeds up to 40 mph or so expected by the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0230 Tuesday...Nerly winds begin to relax after midnight with some clearing from W to E as drier air associated with incoming ridge begins to overspread the area as SFC low and trough aloft departs Eward. Dry overnight, maybe some light sprinkles along immediate coast. MinTs mid50s inland, low 60s beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tue... Key Messages... - After a warm and dry Wednesday, we will turn breezy and cooler this week with highs below normal and lows bottoming out in the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings - Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with above normal temps returning. Next chance of rain possible by Monday as a cold front moves through High pressure continues to build in Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s, though a cooler airmass will move in Thursday and Friday (highs in the 60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold front. High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and then offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions. The next chance of rain may come late Sunday or Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves across the Southeast. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 0120 Tuesday...VFR CIGs at time of writing, but expecting low level stratus to build in from NE to SW through the overnight/early morning hours. Have prevailing MVFR initially CIGs>FL020, but that will lower through the early morning hours. IFR CIGs likely in NEern zones, though these lower CIGs may reach PGV and EWN, but not expecting it to reach ISO or OAJ, though it will be close. Expect conditions to not improve much through much of the day today with sub-VFR conditions forecast across all terminals into the evening. Some light rain is possible at all TAF sites tomorrow, but eastern terminals, and especially eastward from there towards the coast and OBX, have the best chance of some light rain. Most likely drizzle or light sprinkles. Given the uncertainty have elected to keep precip out of the TAF forecast for now. Light winds through tonight will pick up out of the north with gusts of up to 20 kt through late morning and the afternoon. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 0300 Tuesday...Two low pres systems off the East Coast will consolidate into one while remaining offshore. Winds start NWerly 10-20kt early, becoming more Nerly while strengthening in the afternoon as the low(s) move out to sea. Have upgraded Gale Watches to Gale Warnings for coastal waters. PamSound was left in SCA as Gale conditions here will be highly localized to the Eern waters immediately surrounding Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, not enough to warrant a Gale Warning for the whole Sound. Seas 6-8 ft early building to 8-11 ft with the Nerly surge. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue... Key Messages - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through at least Friday with strong Small Craft conditions expected As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Seas will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 740 PM Mon... Made some minor changes since the previous update which includes issuing coastal flood warnings for tomorrows high tide for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and a Coastal FLood advisory for the Northern OBX. High surf advisory was also issued for the OBX north of Cape Hatteras for tomorrow. Though the coastal low has weakened, and will pull away from the region Tue/Wed, minor to moderate coastal flooding will continue due to persistent northerly winds. Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warning now persists through Wed morning for Hatteras Island where significant impacts (2-4 ft AGL) are again possible, mainly starting during tomorrow afternoon`s high tide as a strong surge of N`rly winds has the potential to produce similar impacts to previous days events. Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the Coastal Flood Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an Advisory for now, and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are expected with tonight`s high tide. However as the strong N`rly surge impacts Ocracoke on Tue we will once again have the potential to see minor to moderate coastal flooding impacts (2-3 ft AGL) and as a result have a coastal flood warning now in place across Ocracoke starting at 11AM Tue and persisting into Wed morning. On the sound side, strong and steady northerly flow will lead to minor flooding impacts beginning later today from around Avon south to Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least Wednesday. Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place, and an extended period of minor flooding (1-2 ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is anticipated due to strong northerly winds. Flooding may be worsened around high tide early this week due to still higher than normal astronomical tides, with minor flooding impacts lasting through at least Wednesday. Finally have also included a high surf advisory for the beaches north of Cape Hatteras as seas should build close to 6-10ft in the surf zone Tue afternoon as a potent surge of N`rly winds works its way south. On top of the higher seas, wave periods will be 10+ sec resulting in another round of powerful swell impacting the area potentially enhancing impacts to already weakened dune structures. The High surf advisory goes out until Wed morning as well. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194- 196. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ204. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ204. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-230. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CEB SHORT TERM...CEB LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...SGK/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX