Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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976
FXUS62 KMHX 140721
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
321 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and will anchor over the Eastern
Seaboard into this weekend. A cold front will move through the
area by next Monday bringing a chance for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 0230 Tuesday...The two SFC lows off the East Coast begin
to consolidate with the DelMarVA low sinking SEward to merge
with the Sern low and move well off the NC coast. Continue to
carry Chc PoPs for coastal areas, highest OBX zones. Much
lesser chances for rain further west towards the Coastal Plain,
where 20% or less is advertised. Have added mention of patchy to
areas of light drizzle for the lower PoP areas. It will be
overcast again, even for areas that don`t see much rain, so
little warming is expected, MaxTs in mid to upper 60s.

With the offshore low(s) moving southward off the NC coast, an
inc in the northerly gradient will bring gusty winds to the
coast, with speeds up to 40 mph or so expected by the afternoon
hours.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 0230 Tuesday...Nerly winds begin to relax after midnight
with some clearing from W to E as drier air associated with
incoming ridge begins to overspread the area as SFC low and
trough aloft departs Eward. Dry overnight, maybe some light
sprinkles along immediate coast. MinTs mid50s inland, low 60s
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages...

- After a warm and dry Wednesday, we will turn breezy and cooler
  this week with highs below normal and lows bottoming out in
  the low 40s Friday and Saturday mornings

- Dry and breezy conditions continue through this weekend with
  above normal temps returning. Next chance of rain possible by
  Monday as a cold front moves through

High pressure continues to build in Wednesday with highs in the
low to mid 70s, though a cooler airmass will move in Thursday
and Friday (highs in the 60s) thanks to a reinforcing cold
front. High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic
Saturday, and then offshore Sunday signaling a return to above
normal conditions. The next chance of rain may come late Sunday
or Monday as a quick moving and moisture-starved front moves
across the Southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0120 Tuesday...VFR CIGs at time of writing, but expecting
low level stratus to build in from NE to SW through the
overnight/early morning hours. Have prevailing MVFR initially
CIGs>FL020, but that will lower through the early morning hours.
IFR CIGs likely in NEern zones, though these lower CIGs may
reach PGV and EWN, but not expecting it to reach ISO or OAJ,
though it will be close. Expect conditions to not improve much
through much of the day today with sub-VFR conditions forecast
across all terminals into the evening. Some light rain is
possible at all TAF sites tomorrow, but eastern terminals, and
especially eastward from there towards the coast and OBX, have
the best chance of some light rain. Most likely drizzle or light
sprinkles. Given the uncertainty have elected to keep precip
out of the TAF forecast for now. Light winds through tonight
will pick up out of the north with gusts of up to 20 kt through
late morning and the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the
week with cooler and drier high pressure over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 0300 Tuesday...Two low pres systems off the East Coast
will consolidate into one while remaining offshore. Winds start
NWerly 10-20kt early, becoming more Nerly while strengthening
in the afternoon as the low(s) move out to sea. Have upgraded
Gale Watches to Gale Warnings for coastal waters. PamSound was
left in SCA as Gale conditions here will be highly localized to
the Eern waters immediately surrounding Hatteras and Ocracoke
Islands, not enough to warrant a Gale Warning for the whole
Sound.

Seas 6-8 ft early building to 8-11 ft with the Nerly surge.


LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine
   conditions in the forecast through at least Friday with
   strong Small Craft conditions expected

As low pressure pulls away from the region, strong high
pressure will build in from the NW, with a tight pressure
gradient expected through most of the week. Winds will be NNW/N
at 15-25 kts, with gusts 25-30 kts. Winds will subside quickly
late Friday to 5-15 kts, and will become SW on Saturday. Seas
will be 6-10 ft through Friday morning, and then subside to 5-7
ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 740 PM Mon... Made some minor changes since the previous
update which includes issuing coastal flood warnings for
tomorrows high tide for Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, and a
Coastal FLood advisory for the Northern OBX. High surf advisory
was also issued for the OBX north of Cape Hatteras for tomorrow.

Though the coastal low has weakened, and will pull away from
the region Tue/Wed, minor to moderate coastal flooding will
continue due to persistent northerly winds.

Outer Banks: Coastal Flood Warning now persists through Wed
morning for Hatteras Island where significant impacts (2-4 ft
AGL) are again possible, mainly starting during tomorrow
afternoon`s high tide as a strong surge of N`rly winds has the
potential to produce similar impacts to previous days events.
Due to offshore winds and decreasing swell, the Coastal Flood
Warning for Ocracoke has been replaced with an Advisory for now,
and mostly minor oceanside impacts (1-2 ft AGL) are expected
with tonight`s high tide. However as the strong N`rly surge
impacts Ocracoke on Tue we will once again have the potential to
see minor to moderate coastal flooding impacts (2-3 ft AGL) and
as a result have a coastal flood warning now in place across
Ocracoke starting at 11AM Tue and persisting into Wed morning.
On the sound side, strong and steady northerly flow will lead to
minor flooding impacts beginning later today from around Avon
south to Ocracoke Village, and linger through at least
Wednesday.

Downeast Carteret, Craven, Pamlico: Coastal Flood Advisories
remain in place, and an extended period of minor flooding (1-2
ft AGL, locally up to 3 ft a times) is anticipated due to strong
northerly winds. Flooding may be worsened around high tide
early this week due to still higher than normal astronomical
tides, with minor flooding impacts lasting through at least
Wednesday.

Finally have also included a high surf advisory for the beaches
north of Cape Hatteras as seas should build close to 6-10ft in
the surf zone Tue afternoon as a potent surge of N`rly winds
works its way south. On top of the higher seas, wave periods
will be 10+ sec resulting in another round of powerful swell
impacting the area potentially enhancing impacts to already
weakened dune structures. The High surf advisory goes out until
Wed morning as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ094-194-
     196.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ204.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for NCZ204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Friday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX