631
FXUS62 KMHX 281727
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1227 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure then builds into the area today and tomorrow. A
strong cold front will cross through Eastern NC early Sunday
morning and bring much colder conditions through Monday.
Moderating conditions are then expected Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure shifts offshore. Another strong cold front then
impacts the area Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 6 AM Friday...High pressure builds in today behind last
night`s cold front. Although temperatures will be several
degrees cooler than Thursday, we`ll still be above normal. With
clear skies and westerly downsloping winds, temperatures will
reach the mid- to upper-60s across the coastal plain. Along the
coast, temperatures will range from the low-50s along the NOBX
to the low-60s along the Crystal Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3:15 AM Friday...High pressure will move offshore and winds
will back to the southwest. A strong clipper system will track
eastward across the Great Lakes and keep the pressure gradient
pinched over our area with southwest winds remaining around 5-10 mph
overnight. Although skies will be clear, we`ll stay mixed enough to
preclude any fog development. Lows will drop to the mid-40s across
the coastal plain and upper-40s to low-50s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...High pressure shifts offshore Saturday, with
above normal conditions expected. A strong cold front will move
through the region Saturday night and usher in much colder
conditions for through Monday. High pressure shifts offshore
Tuesday with moderating conditions expected, and then moisture
increases Wednesday ahead of a strong frontal system. Heavy
rain, strong winds, and even severe weather will be possible
with this system Wednesday into Thursday.

Saturday...High pressure builds offshore Friday night as a
potent clipper system moves across the northern Mid-Atlantic.
This will lead to rapidly strengthening southerly flow in the
tight pressure gradient in between, and winds could gust 20-30
mph Saturday. Thicknesses build quickly Saturday as well, and
allow highs to rise into the low to mid 70s inland and 60s along
the coast.

Sunday and Monday...As this clipper system moves offshore
Saturday night, a strong cold front will dive quickly south and
through the Carolinas after midnight. Latest forecast model
trends now show the potential for some light shallow showers
along the front as it moves into NC, and have added in a slight
chance of rain along the coast early Sunday morning.

Behind this front strong CAA will develop and continue through
Monday, keeping temps well below normal with highs only in the
mid to upper 40s Sunday, and upper 40s to low 50s Monday (low
40s along the NE NC coast).

Tuesday through Thursday...Heights begin to build Monday night
as high pressure shifts offshore, and moderating conditions are
expected Tuesday with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s. A
robust frontal system will approach from the west Wednesday,
with strong moist southerly flow developing. Timing is still
hazy, but strong winds, heavy rain, and severe weather will be
possible with this system as it crosses into Eastern NC late
Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 18z Saturday/...
As of 1215 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Gusty southwest winds of 25-30kt expected Saturday

Northwest winds this afternoon will become westerly then
southwesterly and decrease as high pressure shifts overhead.
High pressure will quickly shift offshore tonight, allowing a
strengthening southwesterly flow to ensue during the day
Saturday. With deeper mixing from mid-morning on, winds will
peak after 15z Saturday, with gusts of 25-30kt expected. A
period of LLWS impacts is possible tonight (30-50% chance), but
given the modest risk, we`ll hold off on mentioning this in the
TAFs for now. Throughout the period, VFR conditions are
expected.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...VFR conditions are anticipated through early
next week with high pressure over the region. Strong winds will
again develop Sunday morning when winds gust 15-25 mph out of
the north.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...SCAs are ongoing for the coastal waters south
of Oregon Inlet for 6-7 ft seas and northwest winds gusting to 25-30
kt. Winds will briefly relax this afternoon as they back to the
southwest but will quickly ramp back up this evening and overnight.
By sunrise, the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet will have 20-25
kt southwesterly winds with gusts to 30 kt and 5-6 ft seas (7
footers will build across the waters into the morning). A SCA for
the Pamlico Sound will start early Saturday morning with southwest
winds ramping up to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...An active pressure pattern will bring an
extended period of hazardous boating conditions into early next
week. Small craft advisories continue for portions of the
coastal waters until then, with more SCAs now added and set to
go into effect either late Saturday afternoon/evening.

SW winds will be 20-30 kts with gusts to 35 kts most of Saturday
across the coastal waters, and slightly lower over the inland
sounds/rivers. A strong cold front will then cross through the
waters Saturday night and winds will switch to the N at 20-30
kts with gusts to 35 kts by Sunday morning. Northerly winds will
slowly subside through the day Sunday, and become N at 10-15
kts Monday. Southerly flow returns Tuesday with winds 10-15 kts.

Seas will be 4-6 ft Saturday morning and build to 6-9 ft
Saturday afternoon. Seas remain steady most of Sunday as waves
respond to strong northerly flow. Seas will become 3-5 ft after
midnight Sunday night, and then will be 2-4 ft Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 3:30 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Elevated fire concerns through Saturday

Elevated fire concerns continue today and Saturday. Building high
pressure and downsloping westerly winds will generate dry
conditions with minimum RHs ranging from 25-30% across the coastal
plain today. Winds will be strongest this morning (less than 15
mph) and then decrease to 10 mph or less this afternoon/evening as
they turn to the southwest. Thankfully the strongest winds and
lowest RHs won`t occur at the same time today, and yesterday`s
wetting rainfall for most of the area should help mitigate drier
fuels.

Attention then turns to Saturday when southwesterly winds
increase once again, and overlap with RHs in the 30s.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...RM/SGK
MARINE...SGK/OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX