363
FXUS62 KMHX 030119
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
919 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to approach the area, bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The
front will stall over the area into Thursday. High pressure
builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the
frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2100 Wednesday...

Key messages:
-Flooding rain and severe potential has drastically decreased
 for the rest of the period.
-More isolated to widely scattered showers and tstorms remain
 possible for next few hours, becoming confined to coast and
 then offshore in early morning hours as front stalls nearby.

Latest analysis shows broad troughing over the eastern CONUS
with a shortwave trough moving through the Carolinas and Mid-
Atlantic. At the surface, slow moving frontal boundary is draped
through the Delmarva and back through central NC, slowly
approaching the I95 corridor. A deep plume of Gulf moisture,
with PWATs 2-2.3" continue to stream into the region. Sct shower
and thunderstorm activity will continue through the first part
of tonight, especially along the front as it trudges across the
forecast area, but coverage of convective activity has
diminished quickly with lack of heating this evening as expected.
As rain comes to an end, low stratus and potentially patchy fog
is likely to develop behind the frontal boundary. Highest odds
of this are along and west of I-95, but if the front moves
faster, patchy fog threat may spread further east towards Hwy
17. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wed...Front will stall over the area Thursday,
while broad troughing continues aloft gradually pushing off the
coast late. Precip coverage is expected to be less with lesser
forcing and also drier air. However, with ample moisture still
in place in the low and mid levels (PWATs around 1.75"),
additional rounds of moderate rainfall possible from stronger
and/or training cells, with best chances east of Hwy 17 (near
the stalled front). Temps near climo, with highs in the upper 80
to 90 deg inland and mid/upper 80s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

Aloft, a broad trough will move offshore late week with ridging
pushing in behind it. At the surface, high pressure will build
in across the eastern US late week through the weekend.

Once this boundary finally gets on its way late Thursday, a mid-
level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern
Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our CWA
early Friday. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more than a
wind shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend will
host our typical summertime pattern with daily seabreeze convection
and highs around 90. A low may develop near the Gulf Stream waters
along the remnants of the stalled front this weekend. Guidance
differs on where this low may meander, but its proximity to ENC will
introduce higher PoPs on Monday.

Speaking of this same stalled front, ensemble and deterministic
guidance continue to come into better agreement on tropical
development farther south late this week/weekend. NHC has
highlighted the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the
southeast US coast for low pressure development with a 40% chance of
formation.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1930 Wednesday...Mix of VFR for coastal terminals and
SubVFR inland with widespread showers and thunderstorms
beginning to wane, but will linger into the first half of
tonight. Have prevailing MVFR CIGs for inland terminals but have
included tempo IFR for a few hours. Reliable guidance continues
to be aggressive in depicting a post- frontal low stratus deck
developing across eastern NC as front stalls over the area
overnight. Given light winds at the surface, some fog is also
possible. Most likely terminals to see these restrictions are
PGV-ISO, mainly after 06z...with potential for IFR at all
terminals through 12z. VFR likely to return Thursday, with sct
diurnal convection, best chances at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 PM Wed...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will
persist through the rest of the period, bringing periods of
sub- VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 2115 Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - SCAs have been allowed to expire as scheduled.

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-23 kt with seas
3-5 ft. SW winds will gradually ease late this afternoon and
this evening as front approaches. The front will stall over
portions of the waters Thursday, with winds veering, becoming
more variable 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Offshore showers and
tstorms possible all day Thurs with the front losing momentum
and stalling nearby.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Winds 10-15 kt will veer to the
northeast by Friday morning and remain status quo until Saturday
afternoon when they become more easterly. Winds will continue
to veer to the southeast on Sunday. Seas will generally be 2-4
ft through the period (3-5 ft south of Cape Lookout through
Thursday evening).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/CEB
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CEB/OJC
MARINE...CEB/CQD/OJC