620
FXUS62 KMHX 301905
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Imelda and distant Hurricane Humberto are expected to
remain offshore, but will bring coastal impacts to the area
through late week due to their respective swells. Strong high
pressure will build in from the north the next few days and into
the weekend bringing with it a prolonged period of strong NE
winds midweek and cooler and drier conditions mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 2 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered light showers will become more isolated by later this
   afternoon

 - Gusty NE winds increasing

The combination of weak upper level impulses and a plume of tropical
moisture from increasingly distant Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane
Humberto will continue to support scattered light showers across the
area this afternoon. As drier air builds in with high pressure
expanding south later today, precip will become even more
isolated.

The bigger story will be the gusty winds due to the tightening
pressure gradient between the surface high and the two cyclones.
Winds are currently 10-20 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph. Tonight,
winds will increase to 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph across
the OBX and Downeast Carteret. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
these areas from 8 PM tonight until 8 PM Wednesday.

With this breezy NE flow and cloudy skies, highs will be around
the upper-70s today. Tonight, the FA should remain dry
with subsidence continuing to build in from the north. Lows
will be in the mid- to upper-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2:20 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty NE winds persist

Tomorrow will be breezy but will also be the most pleasant
weather we`ve had in days. As previously stated, the Wind
Advisory is in effect for the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret
until 8 PM for gusts up to 45 mph. Elsewhere, peak gusts will be
in the 25-35 mph range. As high pressure builds in from the
north and Hurricane Imelda and Hurricane Humberto move further
to the NE, moisture will decrease and cause a noticeable drop in
humidity and cloud cover. Temps will range from the low- to
upper-70s (coolest across the NOBX), but most of the area will
have dewpoints roughly 10 degrees lower than today. Some hi-res
guidance is showing scattered light showers moving from north to
south tomorrow afternoon/evening as another upper level impulse
moves across the area, but model soundings show widespread
subsidence, so a dry forecast persists.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

 - Strong high pressure building in from the north will lead to
   a prolonged period of gusty NE winds this week.

Imelda and Humberto will quickly list ENE away from the region
on Wednesday as an upper level shortwave slides off the
Northeast Coast. Sfc high pressure will build in from the north
while upper ridging builds across the Eastern CONUS through the
remainder of the long term.

NE winds gradually weaken Wednesday night through the end
of the week, then veer to easterly as the sfc high migrates off
the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Generally dry weather is expected for most area through the long
term although a coastal trough offshore may produce periods of
showers across the coastal waters. Some guidance does show some
of these showers working their way toward the coast, especially
over weekend into next week with easterly flow developing as the
highs moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Temps will be a few degrees below normal through the work week
with highs in the mid 70s. Temps warm to near normal over the
weekend with highs around 80/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2:50 PM Tuesday...Flight conditions will improve through
the period as drier high pressure builds in from the north. Obs
currently show a mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs but all terminals
should return to VFR within the next couple of hours. Broken
high clouds will stick around tonight but scatter out through
tomorrow with mostly just diurnal cu. Breezy NE winds at 10-15
kt with gusts to 20-25 kt will persist through the period. Along
the Outer Banks and Downeast Carteret, a Wind Advisory is in
effect from 8 PM tonight to 8 PM tomorrow for gusts up to 40 kt.

LONG TERM /Wednesday afternoon through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the north. NE
winds will be a little weaker each day through the end of the
week. Cannot rule out patchy late night fog toward the end of
the week when winds will be weaker and low levels decouple
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2:25 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages:

 - Treacherous marine conditions through the period

Latest obs show 20-30 kt winds and 10-14 ft seas at 14-15
seconds. With the pressure gradient tightening between high
pressure building from the north and offshore Hurricane Imelda
and Hurricane Humberto, conditions will continue to deteriorate.
NE winds will peak tonight-tomorrow with 35-40 kt gusts
expected across most of the waters (Gale Warnings are in effect
for all coastal waters and sounds with SCAs for the inland
rivers). Seas will build to 12-16 ft at 14-15 seconds tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Message

 - Dangerous marine conditions expected through the long term,
   with swell from two tropical cyclones impacting the waters as
   well as strong NEerly gradient winds expected through much
   of the work-week.

Tight pressure gradients from high pressure building in from
the north and two tropical systems across the western Atlantic
will bring strong NE winds through much of the week. Most waters
will continue to experience Gale Force winds on Wednesday
(except the inland rivers), then will see gradual improvement
through the week as the tropical systems move further offshore.

Seas expected to peak around 10-15 ft on Wednesday, then will
very slowly subside through the rest of the long term as long
period swell from both tropical system will continue to impact
the waters, however seas 6 ft or greater expected to keep SCA
conditions through the rest of the long term.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 2:30 PM Tue...Building long period swell and strong NE
winds will lead to minor to moderate oceanside flooding over the
next few days. Strong NE winds will lead to minor coastal
flooding for soundside areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound,
Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers. CF Warnings and Advisories continue
with waters levels rising today.

Oceanside...The forecast remains on track as long period swell
from distant Humberto is expected to peak today into Wednesday.
While Humberto begins to move away later this week, swell from
Imelda then quickly arrives into the area and will peak closer
to the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. As a result, swell
impacts are expected to last much of the upcoming week, which
include dangerous rip currents, large breaking waves, and the
potential for ocean overwash, coastal flooding, and wave runup
impacts. Most significant impacts at the moment look to be
across portions of the OBX near Hatteras Island and Ocracoke
where 2 to 3 ft AGL of inundation is possible today into Thu
given weakened dune structures across the area. 1 to 2 ft of
inundation is possible across oceanside Crystal Coast and NOBX.
The strong NEerly winds due to the strong high pressure may
exacerbate the issues brought on from the strong swell. High
Surf Advisories remain for the entire coast for rough surf and
beach erosion.

Soundside...Prolonged period of strong NE winds will lead to
water level rises the next few days. 1-2ft of inundation is
expected along the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and
Pamlico/Pungo rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ080-094-
     194.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ195-199.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204-205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ196-203>205.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ203.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Gale Warning until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ136-137.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT Wednesday
     night for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX