296
FXUS62 KMHX 061404
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1004 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today. Another frontal
passage on Monday will bring our next chance for precip to
Eastern North Carolina. Swell from distant Hurricane Kirk will
also bring marine and coastal impacts through at least mid week.
Strong high pressure and noticeably cooler air building into
the area by late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Sunday...Lingering low stratus across portions of
the coastal plain will continue to dissipate over the next hour.
No changes to the forecast were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Sun...A beautiful Sunday is in
store as seasonable and dry high pressure continues to build
over ENC. Expect highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with mostly
sunny skies (after morning fog and low stratus burn off), and
light northeasterly winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Quiet conditions will continue tonight with
high pressure still over the area. Expect mostly calm and clear
conditions which will allow for good radiational cooling, and
have lows dropping into the upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s
along the coast. Some patchy fog development will be possible
again, especially over the coastal plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 430 AM Sunday...A cold front with limited moisture will
push across ENC on Monday followed by high pressure building in
Tuesday through the end of the week. TC Milton is expected to
pass well south of the area Thursday.

Monday and Monday night...A mid-level shortwave and attendant
cold front will push across the area Monday afternoon and
evening. Model soundings show limited moisture with the system
with saturation mainly below 850mb and very dry air above this
layer, including in the dendritic growth zone, so do not expect
much precipitation with this system and limiting PoPs to slight
chance. SW winds ahead of the front will allow temps to warm
above normal with highs in the mid 80s inland to around 80 along
the coast. CAA ramps up with northerly flow behind the front
Monday night with lows dropping into the mid to upper 50s inland
to mid 60s along the coast.

Tuesday through Saturday...An upper cut-off slow will slowly
push eastward across southern Quebec and northern New England
through the period with sfc high pressure building in from the
northwest bringing seasonably cool temps and comfortable
dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. Skies will be most sunny Tuesday
and Wednesday but will see a bit more clouds Thursday and TC
Milton moves off the FL coast into the western Atlantic well
south of the area. At this time, guidance showing most of the
precip remaining south of the area but could see a few showers
across the southern coastal waters. Expect increasing NE winds
as gradients tighten between high pressure across the Mid-
Atlantic and the tropical system. Main impacts from the system
are expected across the waters and beaches with an increased rip
current, large surf and dangerous boating conditions. There may
also be a threat of minor coastal flooding with prolonged
moderate to strong NE winds including the threat of dune erosion
and ocean overwash in vulnerable locations. Temps will be below
normal through the period with highs in the low to mid 70s most
days, though increased clouds and stronger NE winds expected to
keep temps in the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday. Lows will
generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland upper 50s and
lower 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Monday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Widespread LIFR fog and stratus has developed
across northern NC, while areas to the south have remained VFR
or MVFR. LIFR conditions will continue generally north of US 264
for the next couple of hours before dissipating (including
KPGV), while areas just to the south of this could see some
brief periods of IFR conditions this morning before clouds and
fog begin to dissipate after sunrise (including KISO).

By mid morning VFR conditions will return through the rest of
the day and into tonight with light winds and mostly clear
skies. Overnight, there may again be fog development, though
right now it appears to be more patchy and less widespread.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 5 AM Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected Monday but a
cold front with limited will push across rtes Monday afternoon
and evening that could bring isolated showers and perhaps
brief MVFR conditions. High pressure with a much drier airmass
builds into the area Tuesday through Thursday with VFR
conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Subpar boating conditions expected through
tonight as long period swell from distant Hurricane Kirk keep
swells at 4-6 ft. SCAs continue for all the waters south of
Oregon Inlet where there is high confidence of 6 foot seas
persisting through tonight. Winds will be NNE at 10-15 kts
through this evening, and then become light and variable
overnight.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 530 AM Monday...A cold front will approach the waters
Monday with SW winds around 5-10 kt expected ahead of the front.
The front will push across the waters Monday evening with winds
becoming north to northeast around 10-20 kt late Monday night
into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Long periods swells from distant Hurricane Kirk will peak Monday
with seas around 4-6 ft with a dominant period around 15-16
seconds on Monday and 3-5 ft with a 13-14 second swell on
Tuesday. TC Milton is expected to push across the FL peninsula
on Wednesday then pass south of the waters on Thursday bringing
tightening pressure gradients and building seas across the
waters. Currently guidance showing strong SCA to low end
Gale/Tropical Storm conditions (mainly in gusts) Wednesday
night into Friday with seas building to 6-10 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 AM Sun...Long period swell arriving from distant
Hurricane Kirk will bring an increased risk for elevated rip
currents, dangerous surf, and ocean overwash especially across
the more vulnerable areas and areas where the dunes have been
compromised along the Outer Banks and Crystal Coast. These swell
will begin to impact the beaches today and peak on Monday before
gradually fading Tuesday into Wednesday.

TC Milton is expected to pass well south of the area on Thursday
large swell from this system will likely impact the beaches
for the latter half of the week. Prolonged moderate NE winds
through the week will increase Thursday as gradients tighten
between high pressure centered northwest of the area and TC
Milton which could also bring a threat of minor sound-side
flooding across the southern portions of the Pamlico Sound,
Neuse River and eastern Carteret County.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-044-
     045-079-080.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     Monday night for NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK/OJC
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...SK/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX