795
FXUS62 KMHX 080226
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
926 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push south of the area early this evening
with high pressure building in from the north overnight. A warm
front will lift north through the area Saturday. Another cold
front will move through Sunday. The unsettled pattern will
continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 925 PM Fri...Latest analysis shows the cold front has
pushed south of the region this evening. High pressure will then
briefly build in from the NNW overnight with the frontal
boundary stalled to the south. Much drier air is moving into the
area behind the front, as evidenced by the 0Z MHX sounding.
Weak isentropic lift will promote increasing clouds overnight
along with patchy light rain (after 06z) as the front to the
south slowly begins to retreat north as a warm front. QPF amts
still look very light, likely only a few hundredths at most.
Temps will fall into the 40s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Fri...High pressure to the north will grad slide
eastward through the day, while cold front stalled to the south
slowly lifts northward as a warm front and weak low pressure
develops along it. Areas of light rain possible through the day,
with chances grad increasing from south to north along and
ahead of the boundary. Widespread clouds early, slowly improving
late from north to south behind the front as low level SW flow
develops. Temps will be tricky and will be dependent on movement
of the front. Decent gradient with highs ranging from the upper
40s/low 50s across the northern tier, to the upper 50s and low
60s across the southern forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 0400 Friday...Unsettled pattern with multiple frontal
systems impacting the area through the weekend and into next
week. Midweek onward, more dynamic upper level pattern leads to
greater chances for more substantial rainfall amounts with each
wave/front.

Weekend...The warm frontal passage brings with it the chance of
sea fog advecting onshore and impacting coastal areas Sat
night. Sunday`s front will continue the windshield washer effect
of warm-(relatively)cold-warm between fronts. Sunday`s front
will stall further N than recent FROPAs, which will shorten up
the duration between waves of precip as the transition from
stalled front->coastal troughing->warm front->low will be
quicker.

Next Week...Upper level finally breaks away from the mostly
zonal flow as digging shortwave across the PACNW leads to more
dynamic pattern aloft with cool high pressure at the SFC.
Sunday`s front again stalls to the S acts as focal point for
waves traveling through the area. The Groundhog`s Day- like
cycle of fronts passing, stalling to the S, lifting back as a
warm front, which will become an offshore low and send another
cold front through the FA continues through the week. As the
upper level trough deepens over Wern CONUS through the early
week, the chances of a more meaningful wetting rain increase,
peaking late next week/weekend as the axis of the developing
trough aloft approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 555 PM Fri...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals, which are expected to persist through at least 12z
Sat. The front has pushed through the terminals, and expect W/NW
winds to continue to veer becoming NE late this evening. Cigs
will grad lower overnight, likely becoming sub-VFR after sunrise
Sat morning. Warm front will slowly lift through the area
Saturday, with areas of light rain and sub-VFR conditions
likely. Kept cigs at MVFR for now, with potential for period of
IFR after 15z but not enough confidence to forecast a prevailing
IFR group. Ceilings could briefly become VFR after 21Z Sat
depending on how far north the warm front moves.


LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 0415 Friday...Progressive pattern in place through long
term with the cycle of cold FROPA, stalling to the S, lifting N
as a warm front ahead of the next cold front repeats multiple
times this weekend and next week which will lead to multiple
cycles of low CIGs with rain associated with cold FROPA, low
stratus and/or fog in wake of cold FROPA or around or near warm
fronts as the pass. Weekend starts with subVFR flight cats in
place Saturday with low CIGs behind warm front. Brief
improvement to flight cats Sat night/Sun but SWerly winds
strengthen ahead of approaching cold front which is expected to
bring more rain and flight restrictions later Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 925 PM Fri...The cold front will briefly stall just south
of the eastern NC waters tonight. High pressure builds in
overnight from the north. Latest obs show mostly NE winds 10-15
kt as the front has just about cleared the southern waters this
evening. Seas are 2-5 ft. Expect the NE winds to increase to
15-20 kt overnight. A few gusts to 25 kt will be possible
tonight, esp across the outer waters but looks too marginal for
SCA at this time. High pressure to the north will grad slide
eastward through the day Saturday, while cold front stalled to
the south slowly lifts northward as a warm front and weak low
pressure develops along it. NE winds 10-20 kt to start off Sat
morning, with flow becoming more E-S through the day. SE winds
will increase to 15-25 kt across the central waters with seas
building to 4-6 ft. Have issued SCA beginning around 18z for the
central waters, with stronger southerly flow developing Sat
night.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 0430 Friday...Long term will be a perpetual bounce
between just below SCA criteria and strong SCA approaching Gale
conditions as multiple cold fronts cross, stall, and lift to
cross waters again multiple times through the upcoming week.
Friday`s front lifts back Nward through waters as a warm front
late Sat night, turning 10-20 kt winds Serly and potentially
bringing a threat of sea fog. Conditions deteriorate further
late in the weekend ahead of the next front to pass through
early Sunday, strengthening winds further SWerly 15-30kt, some
gusts to Gales possible over outermost waters ahead of the
front. Quick hitting NEerly surge to follow FROPA, which also
carries potential for gale force gusts. Front stalls over or
just S of Sernmost waters, keeping NEerly 15-25kt winds in place
through Tuesday morning when the next wave will lift the
stalled boundary Nward as a warm front, which will very quickly
be followed by the next front Tuesday night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 5 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JME/CQD/CEB
MARINE...JME/CQD/CEB